NBA Finals 2022: Warriors vs. Celtics Preview, X-Factors and Prediction

Breaking down what to expect in the Finals between Golden State and Boston.

In so many ways, the Warriors and Celtics are a Finals showdown that felt inevitable, the culmination of one organization striving to stay ahead of a strategic curve that was established by the other. The individual matchups, quarter-to-quarter adjustments and broad schematic charm that will be seen throughout this series underlines an egregious amount of skill and intelligence. Both teams know what they are, which, from series to series, is whatever they need to be.

From a narrative perspective, the intrigue writes itself. Despite so many new faces who weren’t around the last time Golden State won it all, this group should still be described as the old guard—established dominance, full of pride. They’re a trendsetter simultaneously trying to reclaim and hold on to what was once theirs. Four titles in eight years, all with the same head coach and three main characters (not including 38-year-old Andre Iguodala), would be iconic.

Boston’s road included several ups, downs and detours, but after seeing what Golden State constructed, the winningest city in NBA history spent the last half decade steadily rebuilding with and around a core that could, if everything broke right, one day hang with the decade’s defining franchise, a team that illuminated how valuable two-way versatility was about to be.

Celtics forward Tatum (left) talks with Warriors guard Curry :: Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports

The desire to be positionless and adaptable didn’t require a premonition after watching the 2015 NBA Finals, but acquiring athletic, skilled wings and ballhandlers who can function in lineups big and small is easier said than done. Former Celtics president Danny Ainge saw the forecast. Instead of taking Jamal Murray, Dragan Bender, Buddy Hield or Kris Dunn in the ’16 draft, he plucked Jaylen Brown, a hyperathletic 6'7" wing who’d one day be able to hold his own against four positions, with the third pick.

The next year, with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball seemingly apparent as the lottery’s top two prizes, Boston traded off the No. 1 pick and took Jayson Tatum third. Neither selection was straightforward or predictable. Fast forward to this year, where those two building blocks have grown up surrounded by pieces who were handpicked and developed to complement them in every way. A similar thing can be said about a Warriors team that would be sitting at home right now if not for critical contributions made by Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney. The Warriors have a league-high eight players selected through the draft on their roster. The Celtics are second, with seven. This is not a coincidence.

Altogether, this championship series has the making of a classic. It’s also extremely hard to predict. The Celtics and Warriors met only once after the trade deadline, in a game on March 16 that didn’t have Andrew Wiggins and saw Curry suffer a foot injury that sidelined him for the rest of the regular season. There’s a little bit to be taken from that night, but too much has since changed to treat it like a projection of what’s to come. Every relevant player on both sides is banged up/energized by the three playoff rounds they just endured to reach this stage.

Let’s start with what may be the defining question of this series …

Can the Warriors score in the half court against this Celtics defense?

Boston’s D wasn’t specifically molded to be a Splash Brothers antidote—not with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid existing as interior behemoths within the Eastern Conference—but the ability to switch every screen away from the ball and then flatten out pick-and-rolls with like-sized individuals who could handle the screener and ballhandler one-on-one all the same, isn’t realized without Steph Curry and Klay Thompson’s broad influence.

If you could create a defense from scratch that was built to corral Golden State’s chaotic motion offense—all the split actions, cuts and screens—it would be the one they’re about to face. Switching is a core tenet of Boston’s identity. The 2018 Rockets are a blueprint of sorts, but 1) that team had to square off against Kevin Durant, a safety net who could single-handedly make broken possessions look voluntary, and 2) the Celtics don’t have anyone like Ryan Anderson or the occasionally lost James Harden on their roster. No obvious vulnerability makes them the toughest nut Steve Kerr has ever had to crack.

But there’s a difference between having the right ingredients and using those ingredients to bake 300 perfect cakes. The Warriors have the postseason’s best offense, generating 116.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s up from 112.1 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, a league-average attack that naturally rose to 114.1 with Curry on the court. (In the 129 minutes Curry shared the floor with Thompson and Poole, it was a whopping 121.7.)

They blow games wide open with brilliant three-point shooting and soul-crushing second-chance opportunities. This year they finished second in three-point rate, second in pull-up three-point attempts per game and first in above-the-break accuracy (oddly enough, they were also dead last from the corners). Most of that has carried over into the postseason, where they’re the most lethal jump-shooting team from the midrange, too.

Here’s what I wrote about their offensive resurgence back in November:

After a two-year sabbatical filled with injury, doubt and seemingly irreversible change, the Warriors’ offense is back near the top. Once again, it’s gorgeous, a syncopated flurry of flex and flare screens, pindowns, timely passes and backdoor cuts. The Warriors lead the NBA in fewest seconds per touch and assist rate while hardly ever isolating one-on-one. The ball zips through and around the court at a speed that almost makes you nauseous. Every step is made to confuse and overwhelm.

When the ball gets thrown into Draymond Green in the post and those split actions flow into flare screens, even the most locked-in defenders are pushed to their limit trying to force a tough look. Containing Curry off the ball requires half-second decision-making, the slightest miscommunication or hesitation typically yields a death blow. He’s tireless.

Unlike issues that sprung up for the Mavericks and Nuggets earlier in this postseason, the Warriors aren’t as likely to put Boston’s defense into complicated rotations. Ime Udoka won’t intentionally blitz the ball or throw two on Curry coming off a screen. But the cross matches that are born from constant switching can still cause confusion. Here’s Golden State showing one way to take advantage. Watch how Curry’s sprint drags Al Horford from one wing all the way to the opposite corner. From there, it’s a scramble. (Side note: The question of whether Horford can hang with Curry, Thompson and Poole on an island is no small deal. If Boston is forced to drop on those ball screens or overhelp on blow-bys behind the play, it’s a significant gain for the Warriors.)

Along with limiting turnovers—which goes without saying as an ongoing Achilles’ heel for both teams—trips to the free throw line will have extra value, allowing both defenses to properly set up with the matchups they want in the half court. For example, the Celtics like having Tatum guard Green, so he can switch ball screens and handoffs triggered by Golden State’s primary playmaker. On the other end, the Warriors won’t want Green spending all his time guarding Tatum. That responsibility will likely fall on Wiggins (more on him later), Thompson and (potentially, if healthy) Gary Payton II.

This ties into another philosophical question at the heart of this series …

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Which coach will downsize first, and will they do so by choice?

Both teams can go small and load up with wings and guards to create more space on offense. In years and series past, smaller lineups have elevated Golden State, in particular. (In these playoffs, when Green slides to the five with Poole on the floor, their offensive rating is a whopping 124.6.)

But doing so in these Finals may play right into the Celtics’ hands. As was the case through the first three rounds, the bedrock of Boston’s offense will see Tatum hunt mismatches, something he did with quite a bit of success against Golden State during the regular season. Whether it be against Curry or Poole, the Warriors showed on those ball screens, and Tatum responded by quickly getting off the ball and letting his teammates attack in a 4-on-3.

Nothing will dictate Kerr’s rotation more than how his defense holds up against this action. He’ll mix different coverages in—doubling, switching and then doubling, etc.—but Tatum has shown he can make the right decision against just about any scheme. It’ll be on his supporting cast, most notably Derrick White and Marcus Smart, to make plays, drive closeouts and hit shots off the advantage he creates. That’s easier said than done against a defense that will pack the paint, clog gaps and race out to contest the shots they want to contest. Golden State had moderate success guarding Luka Dončić this way, but Boston’s outlets aren’t Reggie Bullock or Dorian Finney-Smith. Everyone on this team can attack.

(Smart has struggled to finish around the rim in these playoffs and went cold at the absolute worst time in the final four minutes of Game 7 against the Heat, when Miami left him alone and rotated to cover everyone else. But he’s been plenty effective in this role for months, and will be critical for Boston’s offense when the Warriors either stick weaker defenders on him or let Green roam.)

To hide Poole and throw off Boston’s rhythm, the Warriors will likely go zone quite a bit; if the Celtics pick it apart like they recently have (especially with Horford on the court), Poole’s minutes could dwindle. That’s a problem, especially if Payton and Otto Porter Jr. don’t look right physically.

X-Factors

This brings us to Wiggins, whose independent shot creation, defensive versatility and offensive rebounding make him one of the series’ most important players. He’ll be asked to hound Tatum on one end and then strike against a physical defense that loves to reduce ball movement and coax isolations. Whether in lineups big or small, if Wiggins can score in the post, hit contested pull-ups and draw fouls, life will be so much easier for Golden State’s offense.

Boston has no individual defenders who can be exploited like Dončić was in the Western Conference finals, but recreating sequences like this that force help rotations when a possession looks dead would do the Warriors much good.

On the other end, Boston’s biggest x-factor is probably Robert Williams III, who, when healthy, is able to clean up mistakes in truly horrifying fashion.

That rim protection is invaluable against an offense that leverages its outside shooting to get layups as well as any in league history. Williams is at his best when he can help off a nonshooting threat. But the Warriors are unique in how those players (Green, Looney, Payton, etc.) stay engaged on the ball and from the weakside, setting screens and sparking dribble handoffs. Williams will have to be disciplined drifting into the paint. If Rob can wreak havoc around the basket on both ends, advantage Boston. If not, they’ll pivot to Grant Williams and White—two very good defenders who can simplify the defensive strategy.

Prediction

There are approximately 900 more elements that make this series so much fun to think about. Both the Warriors and Celtics are built to win it all, with contingency plans that could beat most teams’ Plan A. They have all-time talents, willing role players and brilliant coaches. The margins are thin and picking a winner feels like a coin flip. But as a bet on Tatum’s offensive maturation and the NBA’s top defense, Boston in six is the choice here.