Expert NBA Conference Finals Picks

Who will advance to the NBA Finals? SI’s NBA crew makes its predictions.

The next stage of the 2023 NBA playoffs has arrived, as a déjà Bubble gives us familiar final-four matchups in Lakers vs. Nuggets out West and Heat vs. Celtics in the East. Sports Illustrated’s NBA writers Chris Herring, Chris Mannix and Rohan Nadkarni offer their thoughts and predictions.

Spoelstra gets another shot at proving he’s among the NBA’s best tacticians :: Marta Lavandier/AP

Which is the key matchup between the Heat and Celtics?

Herring: You mean beyond Erik Spoelstra and first-year coach Joe Mazzulla? I guess I’ll take Robert Williams III guarding whichever Heat player he inevitably gets switched onto. Miami doesn’t have an absolute ton of high-level playmaking ability. (That’s where they obviously miss the injured Tyler Herro.) But the Heat have shown this postseason that most players in their rotation can knock down open shots when given the opportunity. It means Williams may not have as many options to help off of to try to stay anchored to the rim area.

Mannix: Spo vs. Mazzulla. Boston is better than Miami. A lot better. But Spoelstra is the best coach in the NBA—not just one of. The best coach. He’s going to throw a lot of junk defenses at the Celtics and he’s going to coax a big series out of someone in the Duncan Robinson (welcome home, Duncan)/Max Strus/Gabe Vincent combination. Mazzulla needs to be sharp with his adjustments. If he is, Boston rolls.

Nadkarni: Jimmy Butler vs. the Boston defense. Butler has cooled considerably since his first-round explosion. His scoring and efficiency took hits against the Knicks, and he facilitated more often in the series in the face of more double teams. Miami’s offense is spotty, and the shooting is unreliable. The Heat need the full Playoff Jimmy—like the guy who dropped 47 down 3–2 in Boston last year—if they have any hope of winning this round. Boston is not a team that doubles often, which means Butler should be able to hunt for matchups he likes. Can he score one-on-one? If so, Miami will have a chance.

For the Lakers to reach the NBA Finals, their two stars must lead the way :: Ashley Landis/AP

Which is the key matchup between the Nuggets and Lakers?

Herring: It’s the centers. Can Denver’s supporting cast—especially Jamal Murray and Bruce Brown—do enough damage from the perimeter and off the bounce to take advantage of when Nikola Jokić pulls Anthony Davis out of the paint? And can Davis not only hold his own, but potentially be more impactful than Jokić from a scoring and rebounding perspective? Golden State couldn’t overcome Davis’s superstar performances. Denver’s ability to stop or contain Davis will determine who comes out of the West.

Mannix: It’s … LeBron James vs. Jokić? Call me crazy, but I don’t think it’s wise for the Lakers to play AD on Jokić. Do they really want their best—and only—shot blocker out on the perimeter, defending pick-and-rolls? I’m sure Davis will take a turn on Jokić, but don’t be surprised to see LeBron get some of those minutes. Jokić is the engine that drives everything Denver does offensively. How the Lakers defend him—whether with Davis, LeBron or someone else—will determine how this series plays out.

Nadkarni: Jokić vs. Davis. We don’t need to get cute here. If AD can slow down the Joker one-on-one, that puts way more pressure on Denver’s supporting cast. Expect the Nuggets to test Davis in a variety of ways, from on the block to inverted pick-and-rolls. Davis isn’t as sophisticated as the Joker on offense, but he can still make his counterpart work. Davis’s athleticism and scoring prowess means Jokić will be responsible for playing much more man defense at his position. Whoever doesn’t get fatigued and whoever can stay out of foul trouble will be a major factor here.

Can the Celtics shake off the dust after two less-than-convincing series wins to start the playoffs? :: Matt Slocum/AP

Which team will win the East and why?

Herring: Celtics in 7. Even with the questions about Mazzulla’s experience compared to Spoelstra’s, I trust Boston’s talent advantage—and home court advantage—to be enough to get back to the Finals for a second straight year.

Mannix: Celtics in 5. C’mon. Believe your eyes. Boston is better.

Nadkarni: Heat in 6. I am done doubting this confounding Miami team that makes no sense. It has defied the numbers and logic in back-to-back rounds. I’ve also been uninspired by Boston this postseason. Maybe the Celtics finally play up to their potential. But the Heat have been exceeding theirs for a month.

Players not named Jokić—like Murray—will determine whether Denver wins the West :: Abbie Parr/AP

Which team will win the West and why?

Herring: Nuggets in 7. Denver really impressed all of us in the Phoenix series, which showcased how vital cohesion and health are this time of year. Even though the Lakers boast a fantastic defense, and were good enough to take out the defending champs as a group that’s still relatively new to playing together, I think the Nuggets’ offense presents a different sort of challenge with more reliable players than Golden State had. All in all, it should be a fantastic series to decide who advances to the NBA Finals.

Mannix: Lakers in 6. You might have heard: In March I picked the Lakers to win the West. I’m sticking with them. I think a rested L.A. team will steal Game 1 and have Denver on its heels the rest of the series. I think a lot of these games are going to be close, and if they are, I like my chances with LeBron and Davis closing them out. The Lakers beat the Grizzlies in six. They beat the Warriors in six. They take out the Nuggets in six.

Nadkarni: Nuggets in 6. Denver has the offense and depth to get it done this year. Nobody on the planet is playing basketball as well as Jokić, and this is the most well-rounded team the Lakers have seen in the playoffs. LeBron has been good, but we haven’t seen him control multiple games in a row this postseason. Jokić has been dictating action much more forcefully this spring. Los Angeles has been on a fantastic run. It ends here.