Top Three NBA X-Factors in the Western Conference

These players may not be in the MVP race, but all three are poised to play critical roles on teams with title aspirations this season.

Every season, without fail, there are difference-makers who fundamentally swing the outcome of the NBA Finals.

Last season, wing Bruce Brown came through big for the Nuggets en route to Denver’s first championship. Andrew Wiggins, heavily criticized for years as an underwhelming No. 1 pick with the Timberwolves, more than redeemed himself as the Warriors’ second-most important player during their title run in 2022. And sure: Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo was incredible, notching a 50-piece in the NBA Finals clincher back in ’21. But both Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis were absolutely essential the year before that off Milwaukee’s bench.

That isn’t to say that the huge impacts will be seen only in the championship round. Swing players—or x-factors, if you’re willing to see them that way—will be key all season. Here are three players from the West we feel can either lift or sink their clubs depending on how well they play in the 2023–24 campaign. (We’ll list three players from the East in a separate piece soon.)

Christian Braun, Nuggets

Why not start with a member of the reigning champs?

On some level, Braun already showcased his ability to be an x-factor by scoring 15 points in just 19 minutes on 7-for-8 shooting during a pivotal Game 3 victory in last season’s Finals. But the challenge of being just as impactful—and as consistent—will be a bit steeper now. Braun is still just 22 years old but fills the shoes left behind by Brown, who joined the Pacers for big money in free agency. Following a well-rounded rookie campaign in which he shot nearly 50% from the floor and 35.4% from three, plenty of people will assume that Braun can capably do the job. But he was only a 15-minute-per-game player last season and took fewer than four shots per contest.

It’s unclear whether the young wing is ready for the added responsibility. But if he is, the Nuggets will be in an even stronger position to repeat as champs.

The Nuggets will rely upon Braun to take on added responsibility in his second year as a pro :: Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports

Marcus Smart, Grizzlies

It’s easy to assume, because of the 25-game Ja Morant suspension, that the Grizzlies won’t be in contention this season. But that rationale seems a bit misguided.

For starters, Morant has missed more than 20 games in each of the past two seasons, and Memphis has managed to finish with the West’s No. 2 seed both times. But the team had Tyus Jones, arguably the game’s best backup floor general, during those seasons. And he’s now with the Wizards.

In his place, the Grizzlies got Smart, who should not only be able to replace Jones, but also slot in next to Morant once he’s back in the lineup. He’ll also be expected to take on the team’s toughest defensive wing assignment now that mercurial forward Dillon Brooks is in Houston. All things considered, Smart will be asked to wear a lot of hats—including being a locker-room sage for Morant and this young Memphis team—and if he’s able to do it all effectively, it could eventually help extend the Grizzlies’ season into May or even June.

Smart will wear a number of hats in his first year with the Grizzlies after spending the first nine years of his career with the Celtics :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Taurean Prince, Lakers

It’s been a summer full of discussing how a number of the league’s best teams got better at the top. The Suns got Beal. The Bucks got Dame. The Celtics got Jrue and Porziņģis.

But what about a club like the Lakers, who saw the top of their rotation stay largely the same but heavily bolstered their depth as a means to close the gap with Denver?

Aside from holding onto restricted free agent Austin Reaves at a surprisingly decent contract number, they went out and got solid wing Gabe Vincent from Miami and landed stretch big Christian Wood on a deal for the veteran minimum. But the move to land Prince, a dependable wing and marksman from the perimeter, could be huge for a Los Angeles roster that ranked 25th in the league in three-point percentage last season, 22nd in 2021–22 and 21st in ’20–21. (It will be fascinating to see where the Lakers finish this year, particularly with Darvin Ham having encouraged subpar jump shooter Anthony Davis to take six threes per game.)

Playing Prince with LeBron James should provide The King with driving lanes: either to finish at the bucket himself or to kick out to other teammates with an open look.