Magic Schedule Projection: How Many Wins For Orlando Play-In Spot?

The Orlando Magic has 23 games left after the All-Star Break. How many of those do they need to win to advance to the postseason?

ORLANDO - Sitting just four games back of a spot in the play-in tournament, the Orlando Magic enters the second half of the season with a reachable goal but very little room for error.

With just 23 games left, the Magic needs to play its best brand of basketball in the final quarter of the season in order to have a shot at postseason play.

As of now, the difference between the No. 8 and 13 seeds is just five games.

If the playoffs started today, the Atlanta Hawks would play the Miami Heat, who sits comfortably at the No. 7 position three games ahead. The Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors would also qualify, while the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers and Magic would be on the outside looking in.

However, a lot can change in the final month or so of the season.

The record of the Magic's remaining teams on the schedule is exactly .500, good enough for 17th in the league. Washington (.497), Chicago (.496) and Indiana (.488) are shortly behind Orlando on the list, while Atlanta (.523) and Toronto (.520) rank among the five toughest schedules remaining.

Given the fact that the Magic is 19-15 in its last 34 games after a 5-20 start, Orlando is capable of making another run. The question is, will it be enough? And how many wins in the last 23 games does Orlando need to comfortably get to the play-in?

Looking at the rest of February, the Magic hosts the Detroit Pistons and Pacers later this week. Then, Orlando meets up with the New Orleans Pelicans next Monday. The Magic has to win at least two of these games, especially Saturday's contest against the Pacers, a team in direct competition with the Magic for those final play-in spots. A win against the Pelicans on the road is ideal, but it's the least likely out of the three games.

The Magic plays 15 games in March, where the team should strive for a 10-5 mark. This is where the team's season will either be made or broken. There are some winnable games in this stretch (@ Hornets, vs. Jazz, @ Spurs) and some difficult challenges (@ Suns, @ Grizzlies, @ Clippers). But the games that matter most will come up against the Wizards (x2), Heat and Knicks, teams that the Magic is capable of beating, but hasn't always come through. The outcomes of those games will have the most weight on the Magic's fate.

In April, the team closes out with home games against the Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers (x2). Then, the team visits the Brooklyn Nets and Heat before the season wraps up. In these games, the Magic could benefit from a 4-1 finish.

So if you compile the three months together, the Magic finishes with a 16-7 finish. That gets the team to 40 wins and a .487 winning percentage, which right now is good enough for the No. 9 seed. A 16-7 record in the final 23 games should clinch a postseason spot for the Magic, and it's very doable. 

Even if some of those wins are losses, there's a world where Orlando gets in. However, if just three of those wins flipped into losses, it would push Orlando's final win percentage down to .451, which would likely not be enough to qualify. That means the margin for error is thinning for the Magic and every win and loss from here on out is absolutely crucial.

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You can follow Jeremy Brener on Twitter @JeremyBrener.

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