Mavs Must Address Roster Needs Around Luka Doncic as NBA Trade Deadline Nears
DALLAS — As the February 8 trade deadline nears, it becomes increasingly glaring that a move or two is needed for the Dallas Mavericks to add the necessary reinforcements to turn around a 26-23 season. The workload Luka Doncic has continued to carry, powering through an injury-riddled season, should be cause for concern.
Mavs coach Jason Kidd recently appeared on Dallas radio station 97.1 The Freak's "The Downbeat." The sentiment of one of his comments is undoubtedly shared by basketball observers alike, expressing the importance of not taking the production Doncic has continued to provide for granted. He's averaged 34.8 points, 9.6 assists, and 8.6 rebounds in 41 games, continuing to make history.
"I've said this before, and I'll say it, you know, for as long as I'm here, is you can't take this young man for granted," Kidd said of Doncic.
The best way to appreciate Doncic's greatness is to put the right players around him so the Mavs can compete to reach the playoffs and contend for a championship. Kidd's recent comment echoed the same sentiment. Since making the Western Conference Finals in 2022 and losing Jalen Brunson to the New York Knicks in free agency, Dallas has gone 64-67 in 131 regular season games, suggesting much must be done to reach contention status.
"And now it's the opportunity of getting the right people around him to, ultimately, win a championship," Kidd said.
What does Doncic envision the Mavs needing, if anything, at the trade deadline? He wants to leave it to the ownership and front office to decide.
"I don't know. I think that's a question for the owners, for the GMs — I didn't say nothing," Doncic said. "So I think that's a question for them."
What is known is the Mavs' stretch of improved defensive execution did not translate to an established identity after the recent continued rash of injuries — ranking 25th in defensive rating (117.9) on the season. Dallas relies heavily on perimeter shooting success to dictate their ability to win games, trailing only the Boston Celtics in 3-point shooting frequency with 45.1 percent of shot attempts coming from deep.
Given how many key players have been sidelined consistently lately, the requirement of Doncic's excellence to win games has only been raised. The team is 9-1 when Doncic scores 40 or more points but is only 14-17 when he finishes below that threshold. Specifically, since December 1, Dallas has gone 6-11 when Doncic scores under 40 and has gone 1-6 in those situations since January 1. When Doncic doesn't play, the team is 3-5. Much depends on Doncic not only to power through injury when they arise but to continue to dominate despite the circumstances.
Particular nuances can be looked at for both areas to determine improvement. But first...
Trades Won't Improve Health
The Mavs face some underlying concerns with their current roster, beginning with their health concerns. Dallas has played less than half of its games with Doncic and Irving in the lineup this season. The team can only go as far as its top players take them, which begins with availability.
The Mavs have only played 18 games with Doncic, Irving, and Dereck Lively II in the lineup together despite already playing more than half of the regular season. Doncic and Irving have only played together in 22 of 49 games.
Irving will likely return to the Mavs' lineup when they face the Sixers on Monday after missing seven games due to a right thumb sprain. He previously was sidelined for a 12-game period because Powell fell on his leg while he was on the ground. The team has gone 11-11 in 22 games played without Irving. 3-5 without Doncic, and 4-8 without Lively. It's clear that with this three-man combination being the core group built around, depth must be evaluated closely.
Doncic recently highlighted the importance of staying patient with the Mavs' health situation given how few games the team's "Big 3," as he called it, have been able to play together. He remains intrigued by the potential of playing next to Irving and Lively, acknowledging the importance of playing more games and gaining more practice reps to reach their potential.
"I'm not saying people aren't taking into account all of our injury problems this season, but maybe not enough of them,” Doncic told Andrej Miljkovic of Ekipa24 in a recent 1-on-1 interview. "It was a serious injury crisis; there was always someone missing, and there was always someone important missing. In my opinion, we are even closer to being in perfect shape and at least approximately healthy now. Especially our 'Big 3,' as we would say here — we have played very little together in matches, even less in training. We still have to get used to it, even though we are already in the second half of the regular season."
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The Mavs should have better insulated themselves from the downside of Irving missing games. It's caused Doncic's workload to balloon over the past few months, resulting in him leading the league in minutes per game on the season and having a pretty sizeable lead in that regard when looking since late November.
Remember that Irving's injury history and being a guard in his early 30s were known factors when the team acquired him from the Brooklyn Nets last season. The addition of Seth Curry hasn't offered much impact when his number has been called, and Hardy still has a way to go in his development. Additionally, Exum has dealt with multiple injuries after proving his value as an essential contributor.
Before Diving Too Deep, the Mavs Have Limited Trade Assets
There are too many holes for the Mavs to address midseason for an ideal supporting cast to be established. The team only has a 2027 first-round pick in terms of first-round draft capital that can be traded in a midseason deal. The young players on the roster outside of Lively do not hold great trade value, either, while needing to package underwhelming at best contracts to match salary.
Whatever the Mavs do at the midseason trade deadline, help cannot come soon enough for Doncic, who has battled through injuries to carry the team to what has amounted to a play-in spot. He's provided yet another transcendent season that has slipped into flashbacks to last season's campaign that failed to qualify for the play-in tournament after tanking the final two games.
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For the Mavs to make meaningful changes to the roster that address core needs, the front office will undoubtedly need to get creative and be willing to take risks. Now, what are the most significant holes Dallas should address?
Perimeter Size & Wing Upgrades Needed
The goal of any team should be to start by gaining a transcendent talent worthy of consideration for being a top-five player in the NBA. With Doncic, the Mavs certainly have that, considering he's been named All-NBA First-Team for four consecutive seasons. The next step? Field a supporting group that enables that talent to do what they do best as unhindered as possible.
It's common for the opposition to hide their weakest defender on Derrick Jones Jr., whether it's a small guard like Damian Lillard or a center limited to playing drop coverage like Jonas Valanciunas. It limits the options the Mavs have in the half-court to exploit the top weaknesses of their opponent. As plays develop, opponents shrink the floor by sending an early low man to the paint since they do not fear him as a catch-and-shoot threat on the perimeter.
Grant Williams has not thrived in filling a concentrated niche in the Mavs' offense. He has remained too hesitant as a floor spacing option when Doncic threads the needle on a pass that requires a quick trigger. Against athleticism and length, Williams has proven limited in trying to attack closeouts or generally play off the dribble. Defensively, he hasn't proven to be a difference-maker, either.
There are too many lineups when Doncic, who stands at 6-foot-7, is the tallest perimeter player for the Mavs. When Dallas deploys Williams as a small ball center, Doncic becomes the tallest player on the floor. For a team that lacks much for on-ball defensive containment, being that small is a recipe for a bad defense that relies too much on the production of the rim protector.
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While Doncic expectedly wouldn't put teammates in an awkward or disrespected position in public comments, he did mention that Dallas is almost always the less physical team. Not to put words into Doncic's mouth, but strictly speaking from the analysis of DallasBasketball.com, perhaps the best path forward would be to get bigger on the perimeter to field a more physically comparable group. Deploying smaller personnel nightly requires more physical burdens to match up.
"As for what we lack and what we should do, it is clear that we should play much more physically," Doncic told Andrej Miljkovic of Ekipa24 in a recent 1-on-1 interview. "Practically everyone is much more physical against us than we are against them. We need to change that."
Whether or not the Mavs can bolster their perimeter personnel midseason, it'll need to be resolved sooner rather than later. They need to get bigger and more talented, well-rounded options not to be best used as situational options since multiple matchup types limit their production.
A Third Reliable Scoring Threat
The Mavs lack a reliable option on the roster that can consistently score efficiently out of pick-and-roll or isolation outside of Doncic or Irving. Exum is the best qualified, but his efficiency as a scorer operating out of ball screens is underwhelming. His isolation volume is too low to be factored in as a bonafide third-scoring option. Whether it's a guard or a wing, Dallas needs more firepower in this regard, and it becomes glaring when even one of Doncic or Irving are sidelined due to injury.
Exum is on a prove-it deal, and while he's having a career year, he has an injury history that has to be accounted for from a roster construction. From a workload standpoint, there seems to be a clear limit to what Exum's body can handle. He averaged 31.1 minutes per game in 13 games in December, then began to deal with multiple leg injuries that have limited him to three games played in January without having a clear timetable for return as of early February.
While there is a lot to like about how Exum has developed during his time in the EuroLeague and has fit alongside Doncic, the safest best appears to be to utilize him as a combo guard or wing who can initiate the offense and operate in on-ball actions. Still, it isn't dependent too much for the sake of durability. If anything, Exum's size and well-rounded skill set enable the Mavs to pair him alongside multiple guards, as he has proven capable of doing next to Doncic and Irving simultaneously.
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Jaden Hardy has shown flashes of being a capable initiator but isn't consistent enough as a creator or nearly impactful enough as a defender yet. Even against top defensive teams such as the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Mavs felt compelled to have Josh Green step into a more significant role, bringing the ball up and operating as the lead guard to take pressure off Hardy.
Undersized Bench Frontcourt Rotation
Not only are the Mavs small on the perimeter, but they also lack another seven-footer outside of Lively. When he's injured, it becomes all the more glaring that there isn't much of a rim protector. Finding an answer without finding one in part of a more significant trade could be challenging.
In an ideal scenario, Maxi Kleber can stay healthy to be the stretch-five, rim-protecting big man the Mavs can throw out to give teams fits during games. He missed multiple months due to a right small toe dislocation that has since resurfaced on the injury report ahead of Monday's game against the Philadelphia 76ers, making him questionable to play. That's too unreliable of an option from a health standpoint.
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When coming off the bench, Dwight Powell can be helpful against certain matchups when his size or non-shooting threat doesn't disadvantage the Mavs. However, he doesn't present an interior presence defensively and has limitations offensively that help teams shrink the floor against Doncic, especially when playing with Jones.
Many teams around the NBA are seeking an upgrade to their center rotation, so the market will be competitive to address the need. It's also impossible to find the perfect option since most stretch bigs tend to be weak defenders, switching options tend not to be much for rim protectors, etc.