Luka Doncic or Not, Jazz Face More Playoff Pressure Than Mavs

The Mavs won’t be favored to beat the Jazz if Doncic is sidelined, but that only adds to the already-mounting pressure for Utah.

The Dallas Mavericks are about to open the NBA playoffs at home for the first time since 2011, which is the last time they actually won a series.

Given that fact, one would think there would be a lot of pressure on the Mavs to finally get over that first-round playoff hump this year—and there is, to an extent. But the pressure Dallas feels is nothing compared to what the Utah Jazz are up against.

Even before Luka Doncic injured his calf in regular-season finale, there were rumors about how the Jazz might blow things up if they can't at least get to the Western Conference Finals this season. So one can only imagine the Jazz fallout if they were to lose to the Mavs without Doncic being able to play.

Utah has won three first-round playoff series over the last five years with its current core, but they've yet to make it past the second round. One more dose of postseason disappointment, and Utah could potentially part ways with Rudy Gobert or Donovan Mitchell this summer. And if that happens, the Mavs might be able to have their cake and eat it too by pursuing Gobert in a trade.

Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Spencer Dinwiddie and Luka Doncic.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Luka Doncic giving his teammates some love.

It remains unclear if Doncic will be able to suit up for Game 1 vs. the Jazz on Saturday or not due to his calf strain, but you can probably imagine the fallout in Utah if he doesn’t play, and Dallas still finds a way to win. That would be the final nail in the coffin for the Jazz, and believe it or not, that scenario could become reality.

Some might think it's far-fetched to envision a Doncic-less Mavs team beating the Jazz in a seven-game series, but the mindset of this current Dallas roster is much different than it has been the previous two years. A lot of the Mavs’ success has been due to Doncic’s stellar play, but Dallas has proven that it can win without him when put in a pinch.

Since the Kristaps Porzingis trade, the Mavs have only played two games where Doncic was sidelined, but they won both of those games. Albeit, those games were against lottery-bound Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets, but winning both without Doncic was impressive nonetheless and showed the importance of adding Spencer Dinwiddie into the mix. In previous years, it would've been chalked up as an automatic loss if Doncic wasn't able to play, but Dinwiddie, Jalen Brunson and the rest of the Mavs' roster have grown up.

To say the Jazz struggled down the final stretch of the season would be an understatement. Utah went 5-7 over its last 12 games with arguably the only quality win in that stretch coming in overtime against the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies. And even that game was one where Utah blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Mavs hope that Luka Doncic can play in Game 1 vs. the Jazz on Saturday.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Will Spencer Dinwiddie be the Mavs' X-factor in the postseason?

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing playoff series against the Clippers last year, Jalen Brunson hopes to turn things around this time.

The Jazz have blown a handful of big leads this year, topped by a late-March loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, where they led by 25 points at one point in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Utah is a bottom-10 clutch team in the league, going 5-6 in 11 clutch games and posting a -16.6 clutch net rating. Overall, the Jazz ranked 10th in defensive rating this season, but they ranked 23th in clutch defensive rating.

Meanwhile, the Mavs finished the regular season by going 8-2 in their last 10 games with big road wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks and Jazz. The Mavs were one of the worst clutch teams in the league in the first half of the season, but they've morphed into the best clutch team in the league in the second half. 

Since the All-Star break, Dallas has an incredible +43.7 clutch net rating, which is the best in the league by far. The second-closest team to Dallas in that category is the Phoenix Suns with a +29.7 clutch net rating. The Mavs are 8-1 in the nine clutch games they've played since acquiring Dinwiddie from the Washington Wizards.

If the Mavs don't win this series, it will be disappointing, but many people will put an asterisk on it due to Doncic's unfortunate injury luck whether he plays or not. But if the Jazz don't win this series? Well, if that happens, it will mean that the already-mounting pressure became too much to handle for a team that has already started to split at the seams... and it'll also mean that the Mavs' role players are better than what they get credit for.