Western Conference exec believes KAT trade 'happens this summer'

"How much tax are they going to pay when [Anthony Edwards’s] extension kicks in and KAT’s extension jumps?”

The questions surrounding the long-term future of the Timberwolves have been put on the backburner during an electric 2023-24 season. Those questions though are starting to creep back to the surface with some speculation that Minnesota could break up the band this summer. 

It's not a new thought. In fact, there was speculation it could happen last offseason or even in the middle of this season if things didn't go well. But with the team sitting in first place in the West at last week's trade deadline, there was no chance Minnesota's front office was about to meddle with the lineup. 

But with a salary cap that is only increasing by $5 million next season the Wolves are among the most talked about teams for needing to shed money this summer.

NBA Salary Cap expectations for 2024-25 season / Sports Business Classroom

Minnesota's committed salaries jumps from $165 million to $176 million next season, and that's after the contracts of Mike Conley and Monte Morris, the team's top two point guards, come off the books as they're both set to become free agents. The Wolves will need to bring back one of those guys or find a new point guard, which will certainly put them in the luxury tax to begin next season.

The situation leads to conversations about which highly-paid Timberwolves star is most likely to be traded, and without question the answer is Karl-Anthony Towns. Rumors of KAT's departure have long been bandied about by national talking heads.

“I think it happens this summer,” one Western Conference exec told The Ringer's Howard Beck, with Beck reporting that an Eastern Conference executive wondered "How much tax are they going to pay when [Anthony Edwards’s] extension kicks in and KAT’s extension jumps?”

Edwards' new max contract kicks in next year, seeing his salary jump from $13.5 million this season to $35 million next year. Edwards isn't the only one who will see a significant bump. Jaden McDaniels jumps from $3.9 million to $22.5 million. Towns also jumps from $36 million to $49 million next year.

Wolves cap numbers / Hoops Hype, USA Today

Those vaulting numbers and the need for depth with Conley, Morris, Kyle Anderson and Jordan McLaughlin all set to become free agents, many believe Towns could be the odd man out.

Overall, the Wolves have about $170 million in salary committed to just six players next season. 

• Karl-Anthony Towns: $49.7m
• Anthony Edwards: $35.5m
• Naz Reid: $13.9m
• Rudy Gobert: $43.8m
• Jaden McDaniels: $22.5m
• Nickiel Alexander-Walker: $4.3m

One key factor is that Minnesota can enter the 2024-25 season on track to pay the luxury tax and then either bite the bullet and go for broke if the season is tracking towards championship contention, or hit the eject button and trade someone like Towns before next year's trade deadline. 

As Timberwolves insider Jon Krawczynski recently stated on the Lowe Post podcast, it's simply unclear if soon-to-be-majority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez are willing to pay a significant luxury tax, which could be to the tune of tens of millions of dollars. 

"We haven't seen what Lore and A-Rod want to do, how financially aggressive they're going to want to be," Krawczynski told Lowe. "If this team goes to the NBA Finals, can I see this team paying a big tax and trying to ride it out for a year or two? Yes I can. If the team flames out early on in the first round of the playoffs and gets upset, yeah then I think there are going to be real hard questions to ask and probably going to be some changes that are made."

Luxury tax threat doesn't guarantee Timberwolves break up roster

Feb 13, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) dribbles the ball past Portland Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant (9) in the first quarter at Moda Center / © Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports