End Is Near for Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners

The next three weeks are critical for the quarterback and his team to get something done. Plus, Mac Jones’s new figure, Josh Allen’s ceiling, Murray’s new homework and much more.

CLEVELAND—You have questions. I have answers …

From Chris (@Chris_PR_13): Where does Jimmy G land?

Chris, this is, of course, the $25 million question—and it starts with the $25 million I’d say Jimmy Garoppolo almost certainly won’t see in 2022 and the Niners being committed to Trey Lance. To facilitate a trade, Garoppolo’s going to have to play ball with another team (and in doing so, the Niners) and negotiate that number down. His leverage would be refusing to do so to try to hasten his release. The risk in doing that, conversely, would be the Niners hold on to his rights until Labor Day, and make it harder for him to find a place where he could get on the field.

That’s why, at this point, it makes sense for the Niners and Garoppolo to work together.

Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports

I’d say the next three weeks are critical. Garoppolo will likely be cleared to practice in full during that time. The hope for both the Niners and the quarterback, in the interim, would be that something materially changes with a quarterback situation elsewhere, creating a need that might not exist now (be it through injury or disappointing camp play). And, in turn, a viable trade partner with a starting job for Garoppolo.

Could that happen in Atlanta or Seattle? Sure, it could, and an injury could happen anywhere. Will it? No one knows for sure. So, for now, hope seems to be the plan for the Niners and Garoppolo. And if it doesn’t work out, I’d think the Niners would eventually grant Garoppolo his release, which would help the team create some room to do deals for stars like Deebo Samuel (if he’s willing) or Nick Bosa (if he and the team are ready for that).

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From Rogue Five (@KT_Rogue): What’s Josh Allen’s ceiling?

Rogue, it’s really hard to say. Statistically, Allen actually took a step back last year from 2020, but it’s obvious to everyone in Buffalo that he took a step forward—the team really and truly became his. The Tampa Bay game was a turning point in that regard, and his place in the locker room, and ownership of the offense, has absolutely grown.

How does that translate? We saw it when things weren’t going the way the Bills would’ve liked last year. And that even carried over into the epic Kansas City shootout during which Allen brought the Bills back from behind, and kept them in it blow-by-blow.

So, to me, the next pieces will simply come with Allen’s consistency, getting a better feel for when to be a freak athlete and when to take the layup, commanding situations more efficiently, and finding more ways to get more out of his teammates. That’s a boring answer, yes, but it’s good news for the Bills because I think it’s really what’s left out there for him. And if his first five years are an indication, there’s a good shot he keeps improving.

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From Ryan (@grivettiryan): Is there an obvious improvement in Mac’s figure considering his diet and workouts from the last year during this off-season?

Yeah, Ryan, I think there is. And it actually did surprise me—I was wondering just how much a guy who’d been in Alabama’s strength program for four years could change his body upon coming into the pros. But by the looks of it and from talking to people around him, there’s no question he took big steps physically this offseason.

Now, as for what it’ll mean for where his career is headed, I’d say that’d be tough to forecast. It’ll help, no doubt. But to me, Jones’s future is going to ride more on the environment around him, and how much the Patriots can do to help him. So the bigger questions, to me, have always been how the team’s coordinator situation will play out, between Matt Patricia and his position coach Joe Judge, and what the group around him on the field looks like.

Paul Rutherford/USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots got strong springs from Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry and Kendrick Bourne were really good pieces as newcomers last year. The backfield’s well stocked. And the balance of that group, to me, sets a relatively high floor—I think Jones will, at the very least, be plenty competent in his second year—with the ceiling riding on how Bill Belichick handles replacing Josh McDaniels.

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From BigMikeC68 (@BigMikeC68): Why is Belichick not naming coordinators?

Mike, there could be a couple of reasons for it.

The first is that Bill Belichick has traditionally made his coordinators go through a sort of apprenticeship in which they have to do the job first to earn the title. McDaniels called plays in 2005 as quarterbacks coach and was named offensive coordinator in ’06. Bill O’Brien called plays in ’09 and ’10 as quarterbacks coach and was named coordinator in ’11. Matt Patricia ran the defense as linebackers coach in ’10 and was named coordinator in ’11. Brian Flores’s lone year running the Patriots’ defense? He was the linebackers coach.

Then, there’s the business side of it.

You’ll notice with titles for Patricia and Joe Judge this year, not only aren’t they coordinators, they aren’t even officially position coaches. Judge’s title is offensive assistant/quarterbacks. Patricia is senior football advisor/offensive line. Why would this matter? Judge is still being paid by the Giants, Patricia by the Lions, and whatever the Patriots pay those two comes out of what their old teams pay them.

The NFL created rules to avoid teams paying coaches like interns and letting their old teams pick up the tab (which in a lot of cases, the coaches are fine with because their old teams fired them) dictate that these guys have to be paid at a rate commensurate with the established pay scale for their role. There’s a pay scale for coordinators. There’s one for position coaches. There isn’t one as much for guys with vague titles. So, in a roundabout way, this all allows the Patriots to keep Judge and Patricia on the meter with other teams.

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From ✭YumaCactus✭ (@YumaCactus): Do other “franchise” QBs have “homework” requirements in their contracts?

Yuma, I can’t say it never happens. But I’ve never seen it, and in asking around with people after details of Kyler Murray’s contract emerged, I can say most NFL folks were stunned, even taking some of the things that have been said/rumored about Murray, to see it in there.

The reason? Because it’s illogical. First, if you have to put that in a contract, are you really sure you did the right thing in giving the guy a five-year, $230.5 million extension that’s going to ensure, over the time, that the team will need more from him in every way? Second, if he fails to hit those markers, then what? You void his guarantees and cut him? Wouldn’t that mean you, too, as the guys who cut the deal should be gone?

Patrick Breen / The Republic

To me, it’s not worth the protection the team is giving itself to create the issue the Cardinals just did for themselves and for Murray. The contract Murray got is a good one, but really it’s a three-year deal and then … we’ll see. And if you really look at it, that means the Cardinals are only committed to Murray for one more year than they were previously (between the final year of his rookie deal and the guaranteed fifth-year option).

So, again, I just think the Cardinals created a problem without bringing back any huge benefit. And if the guy is putting in only four extra hours a week to hit that marker (that’s 34 minutes a day), that’s not gonna make much difference, anyway.

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From Taylorb54 (@TBrad54): Yeah when we gonna hear about Watson?

Taylor, I’m 100% out of the business of predicting when a decision is coming on Deshaun Watson. I’ll just say this—I don’t think the impartial arbitrator, Judge Sue L. Robinson, is concerned with the start date of training camps or Friday news dumps, or any of that stuff. Which we’ve already seen.

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From Chris (@Chris_PR_13): Is there a chance Stroud or Young fall out of the top 5 of next year’s NFL Draft with a poor CFB season?

Chris, sure. I think the 2023 draft class looks promising at quarterback—but I don’t think any one of the guys is a lock-stock-and-barrel top 10 like, say, Trevor Lawrence was going into his final college season. What you have is a pretty group of talented guys, between C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Tyler Van Dyke and a few others, that still have some questions to answer going into the year. Remember, at this point last year, lots of people thought Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler was a top-10 pick. He’s now at South Carolina.

But that’s part of the fun of it. And before the season starts, we’re gonna get all of you a good look at the landscape when it comes to the class, with the help of some NFL folks.

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