The Biggest X-Factor for Each NFL Team in 2023

The pressure is on to deliver across every roster, but for some franchises, one variable could make or break this year’s success.

It’s that time of year when every team believes it has a chance to win the Super Bowl. But often those lofty goals don’t come to fruition without the help of a few x-factors.

X-Factor has different meanings for every team. For some, it can be a struggling player who breaks out of his funk and delivers a memorable season. That’s what the Commanders are hoping with Chase Young, and the same with the Giants after they traded for Darren Waller, who was in need of a fresh start.

As for other teams, the x-factor can be a situation of uncertainty that develops into a positive throughout the season.

The crew at The MMQB listed the x-factors for all 32 teams in the league during our “32 teams in 32 days” series. Here’s how we viewed it for each team:

Arizona Cardinals

LB Isaiah Simmons

Simmons posted a career-high sacks (4) last season.

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It’s now or never for Simmons, the 2020 first-round pick who had his fifth-year option declined. Perhaps Simmons finds consistency during a contract season while also looking to impress the new coaching staff and front office. Simmons has flashed at times as a Swiss Army knife, and his versatility would be welcomed with various holes on the defense. Jonathan Gannon, the former defensive coordinator of the Eagles, might be the right coach to help Simmons reach his potential.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFC South

In any other division, the Buccaneers would almost be assured of a second-place ceiling. Yet in the NFC South, there’s no reason to believe Tampa Bay couldn’t surprise if Baker Mayfield plays well, as big of an if as that may be.

The Saints, Panthers and Falcons all have reason for optimism, but they also have plenty of potential pitfalls. The Buccaneers enter the season with the lowest win total of the quartet, but they also have the most experience and are the only team with a coach and quarterback who have each been to the playoffs. That counts for something.

Indianapolis Colts

OG Quenton Nelson

How Nelson plays this season will dictate whether the Indianapolis offense will make vast improvements. Nelson made the Pro Bowl last year, but even the guard himself admitted that last year’s play didn’t meet his standards as a three-time All-Pro selection. If Nelson is at his best, that could lead to a bounce-back season for Jonathan Taylor and a memorable rookie season for Anthony Richardson.

Washington Commanders

Chase Young

Young played in nine games in 2021 before getting injured, then three in ’22.

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The saga of Young in Washington has been one of the strangest in recent years. After posting eight sacks and winning Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, he tore his ACL in Week 10 of the following season and didn’t return until December of last year.

As a result, the Commanders declined Young’s fifth-year option, making this year an audition for either his second deal in Washington or a deal elsewhere. If he returns to the form that made him a special player in his first season, the Commanders have an elite edge-rushing duo with Young and Montez Sweat. Otherwise, the group lacks punch against opposing offensive tackles

Houston Texans

TE Dalton Schultz

The Texans’ biggest priority in 2023 is ensuring C.J. Stroud has a successful rookie season. Schultz can help with that by doing what he did for Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott the past few years, especially as a reliable target on third down. Schultz, however, is coming off a disappointing season in which he had only 57 catches for 577 yards and five touchdowns. If the tight end can return to what he did in ’21 (78 catches, 808 yards, eight touchdowns), Stroud could have a solid pass-catching group with Nico Collins, John Metchie III and Robert Woods.

Chicago Bears

The rookie class

Chicago took 10 players in its draft class—don’t be surprised if most have a significant role.

Without question, right tackle Darnell Wright will start from jump, while defensive lineman Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens will see meaningful snaps as part of a rotation. Along those lines, second-round corner Tyrique Stevenson will also play, likely both on defense and special teams.

The question is: Of the other half dozen incoming rookies, how many will play more than the occasional snap? If the Bears get significant contributions throughout their rookie class, perhaps they will surprise fans. But if this class falters quickly, it could be another early winter in Chicago.

Green Bay Packers

CB Jaire Alexander

Alexander missed the team’s OTAs but returned to Green Bay for mandatory minicamp.

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The Packers need their talented defensive players to gel as a productive group, but that won’t work without Alexander continuing to produce on an individual level as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Alexander’s ability to take away one side of the field allows the defensive front to play freely and removes pressure from the rest of the secondary. Alexander recorded 14 passes defended, five interceptions and was named a second-team All-Pro in 2022.

Carolina Panthers

How ready is Bryce Young?

There’s no other question here. We’ve seen plenty of rookie quarterbacks struggle throughout their first years before becoming perennial Pro Bowlers. We’ve also seen men like Matt Ryan and Lamar Jackson lead their teams to the playoffs right away.

Young is surrounded by enough talent and quality coaches to make a run at the postseason, especially considering the division he’s playing in. If Carolina gets a decent year from Young and the defense plays well situationally, the Panthers have a chance to be over .500 and challenge for the NFC South crown, something they almost took with a worse roster last year.

New England Patriots

WR Tyquan Thornton

Thornton had a quiet rookie season (22 receptions, 247 yards and two touchdowns) after the Patriots surprisingly took him in the second round of the 2022 draft. But reporters on the ground in New England are already buzzing about the speedy Thornton (4.28 seconds in the 40-yard dash last combine) torching defenders during OTAs. If Thornton can do that come the regular season, the Patriots might have a versatile cast of receivers with him, Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.

Las Vegas Raiders

Offensive line

Kolton Miller is a quality left tackle, but the rest of the line has been in flux for years. This season’s guard combination of Alex Bars and Dylan Parham has only 42 starts between them. Can Parham, entering his second year, ascend and become a stalwart on the left side next to Miller?

Parham started all 17 games of his rookie season, including 13 starts at left guard, two starts at right guard and two starts at center.

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The biggest question might be right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor, who has played on three teams across six seasons. He’ll need to hold up for Jimmy Garoppolo, who is one of the league’s more fragile starting quarterbacks throughout his career.

The line improved as last season went on. Can it level up in 2023?

Los Angeles Rams

RB Cam Akers

Akers had a roller-coaster 2022 season. After a slow start, he was sent home for nearly a month due to coaching differences with Sean McVay, and was later welcomed back after the team failed to trade him before the deadline. The running back, however, made the most of his second opportunity by ending the season with three consecutive games of at least 100 rushing yards. The Rams are at their best offensively when Akers sustains a rhythm in the backfield. With him entering the final year of his rookie deal, Akers will be motivated to deliver a career season, but he’ll also need to create holes for himself at times. The Rams’ offensive line was a mess last season due to injuries.

Tennessee Titans

The left side of the offensive line

The Titans moved on from left tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Nate Davis this offseason in an attempt to rebuild the front. GM Ran Carthon’s work doesn’t appear to be a one-year job, but he’s added intriguing options on the left side in tackle Andre Dillard and first-round guard Peter Skoronski.

While Tennessee was largely quiet in free agency, the Titans inked Dillard to a three-year, $29 million deal. The hope is he can regain the form which made him the Eagles’ first-round choice in 2019; however, he started only nine games in four years with Philadelphia.

As for Skoronski, he has the versatility to play any position on the line, but staying on the left side and kicking inside makes sense. If he stays at guard alongside Dillard and things go right for the Titans, that’s one less problem to consider.

Denver Broncos

RT Mike McGlinchey

With the Broncos unable to move Russell Wilson’s massive contract, the team went all in with giving him better protection via free agency, hoping that could lead to a bounce-back season from the nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback. Right tackle McGlinchey was the prize signing from the 49ers, the team with which he developed into a standout run blocker. McGlinchey, however, has struggled as a pass protector and will be counted on to improve in that area after the Broncos signed him to a lucrative five-year, $87.5 million contract. The team also signed guard Ben Powers on a four-year, $52 million deal.

Atlanta Falcons

Can Kyle Pitts find another gear?

Pitts is arguably the most-hyped tight end coming out of college in recent memory. After dominating to the tune of 1,492 yards and 18 touchdowns at Florida, Pitts made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. However, he was limited to 10 games last year, totaling 28 catches for 356 yards and two scores.

Pitts is expected to be healthy by Week 1 after tearing his MCL in Week 11 last season.

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The Falcons didn’t draft Pitts to be a good player—they drafted him to be special. So far, he’s shown glimpses but is yet to put the entire package together. For Atlanta to reach the playoffs, Pitts needs to be a driving force.

New York Giants

TE Darren Waller

No one will say Jones is missing a legitimate No. 1 wideout if Waller regains his top form from his dominant days in 2019 and ’20. (He averaged 98.5 receptions and 1,170 receiving yards during that time.) When healthy, Waller is a matchup nightmare and is just as dangerous in the passing game as Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Mark Andrews. But if Waller continues to deal with injuries, Jones will need one of his many wideouts to step up and deliver Pro Bowl–type seasons.

Seattle Seahawks

The 2023 draft class stepping up

After seeing last year’s rookie crop make such an impact for Seattle, it’s hard not to wonder about what the Seahawks have this year, led by the aforementioned Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon.

Seattle is poised to make a deep postseason run in the wide-open NFC, but only if the rookies can contribute to a meaningful degree. While Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are phenomenal, getting a third weapon going in Smith-Njigba would greatly increase the odds of Smith having another terrific season.

Defensively, Witherspoon has a chance to be part of a special tandem with Tariq Woolen. Factor in the safety duo of Julian Love and Quandre Diggs, and the secondary could be something very impactful.

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB Najee Harris

Harris was selected to the Pro Bowl in his rookie year, but not 2022.

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Speaking of the poor rushing attack, Harris voiced frustration with his team’s run blocking last season, which contributed to his disappointing 3.8 yards per carry and drop-off in rushing yards last season. (Harris went from 1,200 rushing yards as a rookie to 1,034 in his second season.) But the Steelers are going to need the running back to find ways to make plays, regardless of how the offensive line performs. If Harris can’t create his own running lanes, he might need to do more in the passing game, with only 41 catches for 229 yards and three touchdowns last season.

Minnesota Vikings

Brian Flores’s impact

After working under Bill Belichick for 11 years in various roles with the Patriots, Flores got a headcoaching gig with the Dolphins, which lasted only two seasons despite a respectable 24–25 mark.

Now, following one year as linebackers coach with the Steelers, Flores has the defensive coordinator job in Minnesota. Taking over for Ed Donatell, Flores is in a good position to improve the unit, but by how much? The Vikings need a defensive overhaul, and from a scheme standpoint that’ll happen immediately with Flores. But beyond shifting away from a ton of Cover 2 looks, can Flores make a quick impact?

Cleveland Browns

WR Elijah Moore

The wide receiver position is a perfect example of what makes the Browns’ talented roster a bit deceptive. Amari Cooper is a solid wide receiver, but he’s not a star No. 1 wide receiver anymore. Donovan Peoples-Jones has flashed at times, but he also leaves the Browns wanting more. If Moore is able to break out in his new home after two tumultuous seasons with the Jets, this receiving trio could be productive enough in 2023 to help Deshaun Watson get back on track.

Los Angeles Chargers

Kellen Moore’s ability to unlock the offense

Wide receiver Keenan Allen described Moore as a “player friendly” coach.

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For the past two years, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has essentially put handcuffs on Herbert. That’s expected to change with the dismissal of Lombardi and subsequent arrival of Moore.

With Brandon Staley being a defensive-minded coach, Moore should have full reign on the other side. Last year, Justin Herbert tied for 31st with 6.4 air yards per attempt, despite having an excellent deep-ball target in Williams and the intermediate skills of Allen. Only Matt Ryan ranked lower of qualifying quarterbacks. In Dallas, Dak Prescott checked in at 10th (8.2 air yards) under Moore’s system.

If Moore allows Herbert to display his rocket-armed talents on a consistent basis, the Chargers will be far more explosive.

Dallas Cowboys

WR Michael Gallup

The Cowboys are counting on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks to form one of the better receiving duos in the league, but they also need Gallup to finally deliver a complete season after a few down years. Gallup has flashed often in his first five seasons, but he tends to have long stretches of disappearing from the offense, and injuries over the past few years haven’t helped. If Gallup can return to what he did in 2019, with 66 catches for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense will be tough to stop this season.

Miami Dolphins

What does Jalen Ramsey have left?

This might seem like an odd question. Ramsey is 28 years old and is coming off his sixth consecutive Pro Bowl season. But there was chatter that Ramsey wasn’t the same for the Rams in 2022, a season that will go down as one of the worst title defenses.

Still, it seems Ramsey is an elite player on the boundary. In 2022, Pro Football Focus rated his as the league’s third-best corner. Now joining Vic Fangio’s scheme, the cornerback should have a few more All-Pro–caliber seasons in him, giving Miami one of the best secondaries in football.

If that’s the case, giving up a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long before giving Ramsey $30.5 million in new guarantees is a terrific gamble.

New York Jets

RB Breece Hall

Hall has said he will be ready for Week 1 after recovering from his ACL tear.

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It wasn’t a coincidence that the Jets’ offense drastically declined after Hall tore his ACL seven games into his rookie season. The 2022 second-round pick was a front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year before the injury, but most importantly, he provided balance to help a sluggish passing game. Hall, who recorded 463 rushing yards and four touchdowns last season, might be the key to helping Rodgers get quickly acclimated with New York’s offense.

Detroit Lions

Secondary holding up

No team remade their secondary more radically this offseason. The Lions signed three new starters in C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton, giving them a new look on the back end.

The question is whether it’s enough. Sutton was a full-time starter with the Steelers in his final two years there, but can he handle top assignments in his new role? Gardner-Johnson has long been a quality player with both the Saints and the Eagles, but he could get only a one-year deal in free agency. Moseley is talented but coming off a torn ACL.

Last year, the Lions ranked 30th in pass defense and 31st in air yards against. They need a transformation, not just modest improvement.

Baltimore Ravens

WR Zay Flowers

The Ravens took another swing at drafting a wide receiver in this year’s first round. They’re counting on Flowers to end the team’s streak of whiffing on wideouts, hoping he can make an immediate impact under OC Todd Monken, who’s looking to push the ball downfield. At this stage in his career, Odell Beckham Jr. may no longer be a downfield threat, and, while Rashod Bateman has shown flashes of making plays in the vertical game, the 2021 first-round pick has struggled with staying on the field. Flowers has plenty of pressure to help this passing game improve this season.

New Orleans Saints

What does Trevor Penning contribute?

If there’s a player—outside of Derek Carr—who could make or break the Saints, it’s Penning.

A first-round pick in 2022, Penning only played in six games and started one as a rookie. New Orleans needs the offensive tackle to not only stay healthy, but also lock down Carr’s blindside. With the right edge held down by All-Pro Ryan Ramczyk, the Saints could have solid bookends, giving the immobile Carr time to scan and throw.

Penning missed a lot of the 2022 season due to two separate injuries, one sustained during training camp and one in the final game of the year.

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However, if Penning is either injured or ineffective, New Orleans could be forced to rely on the short game, taking away Carr’s prolific deep-ball ability.

Buffalo Bills

RB James Cook

Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s erratic at times, mainly because he finds himself having to carry the offense with a stagnant rushing attack. But the Bills should have seen enough flashes in Cook during his rookie season to make him the lead back this season. The 2022 second-round pick recorded 507 rushing yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his 89 attempts. If he develops into a productive playmaker, perhaps that leads to less carries for the versatile Allen. Buffalo also added running back Damien Harris with hopes of forming a dynamic backfield tandem with Cook.

Philadelphia Eagles

How close does Philly come to 70 sacks?

Last year, the Eagles became a historic defensive team with 70 sacks, joining the 1984 Bears as the only two teams to reach the threshold.

This season, odds are the number will decline some, even with the infusion of two rookie pass-rushers, but by how much? In 2022, Philadelphia had a whopping four players reach double-digit sacks. One is already gone in Javon Hargrave, and Brandon Graham (entering his age-35 season) has never had more than 9.5 sacks.

History says the Eagles’ pass rush will regress, but will it be slightly, or a significant amount?

Jacksonville Jaguars

Edge rusher Travon Walker

Walker had 49 total tackles in 2022, with 3.5 sacks.

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Walker disappointed in his rookie season after being selected with the No. 1 pick of the 2022 draft. Nonetheless, if he’s able to make strides this offseason, the Jaguars could have one of the best defenses in the league. Josh Allen is a quality pass rusher, but the Jaguars are hoping to have two or three reliable players at the position with Walker and K’Lavon Chaisson (who has struggled since entering the league as a ’20 first-round pick).

San Francisco 49ers

Which Deebo Samuel are the 49ers getting?

While it’s easy to expect a bounce-back year from Samuel, should we? History says his All-Pro campaign could be the outlier.

In 2021, Samuel became a superstar in San Francisco, posting 1,770 total yards and 14 touchdowns. In his other three years, Samuel has combined for 2,271 total yards and 12 scores.

If the Niners don’t get the best version of Samuel, they’re suddenly mortal on the outside with Brandon Aiyuk manning the other spot. But if Samuel does regain his elite form, San Francisco has arguably the best group of weapons in the sport, including running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle.

Cincinnati Bengals

RB Chase Brown

Brown, a fifth-round pick this year, could be thrust into a starting-like role for his rookie season after Joe Mixon showed signs of decline in 2022. (Mixon took a pay cut recently to remain with the Bengals.) Regardless of how much Mixon plays this season, the Bengals are going to need Brown to fill the void of Samaje Perine, the versatile No. 2 running back who left to sign with the Broncos in free agency. Brown rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 touchdowns during his final season with Illinois.

Kansas City Chiefs

How much will Kadarius Toney produce?

Last October, the Chiefs traded third- and sixth-round picks for Toney, believing he could learn the system in 2022 before becoming an integral piece in ’23.

Toney only played eight snaps in last year’s title game, but one of them was a 65-yard punt return, the longest in Super Bowl history.

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With that time upon us, the question becomes whether Toney can finally fulfill the vast potential that made the Giants select him in the 2020 first round. To that end, Toney has played in only 19 games across two seasons and has only 55 catches for 591 yards and two touchdowns.

Kansas City is relying on Toney to not only be a factor, but perhaps be the top target in the passing game not named Kelce. That’s a big risk.