NFL Power Rankings: Defending Champs Take Top Spot As Training Camps Begin

As the offseason continues, it’s time to size up just how hopeful each of the 32 teams should be before Week 1 approaches.

Training camps are underway, and unless you’re a Jets team managing a cavalcade of documentary cameras and hungry press, there is more hope than hecticness. There is more good than grief. That’s the best part about this time of year. Before there are games and a true measure of who is superior to whom, there is an appreciation on the individual level. Players stand out, get some social media love and inspire some fan-fiction fever dreams about the season ahead.

I remember covering the Jets back in 2012 when I met a defensive tackle on the roster’s fringe. We talked before final cutdowns and he said:

“Every day I walk into the locker room terrified, not knowing if that guy is going to be by my locker cutting me today,” he said. “I just don’t want to go back to Walmart, or even go home.”

That player was Damon “Snacks” Harrison, who would go on to receive a first-team All-Pro nod four years later and finish his career as one of the best run defenders of his generation.

This goes to say that power rankings are not going to account for that. Not yet. But drawing up the league as it stands now is a fun way to measure how many of these teams are going to sustain the hope, preserve the good and keep introducing us to players we haven’t yet heard of.

1

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl (+550) :: Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

As I wrote earlier this offseason, this is a coach and quarterback combination capable of circumventing the current installation process of their offense. The possibilities for the Chiefs, on a year-by-year basis, are greater than any other team by virtue of their experience and still-rising ceiling. The defense offers some fair question marks, but none that can’t be mitigated by their brilliant offense and head coach. 

2

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals earn the No. 2 spot because, like the Chiefs, their quarterback is still approaching unseen territory. Joe Burrow, too, can grow with a coaching staff that has been together for a few years now. Unlike the Chiefs, the Bengals have made some pretty aggressive swings in free agency, including for former Kansas City star Orlando Brown Jr. Cincinnati’s continued insistence on beefing up its offensive line shows a heightened sense of urgency.

3

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are one of those teams I referenced in the introduction. Every year they seem to, in waves, introduce us to players we knew little to nothing about. San Francisco is a sustainable operation that knows what it’s looking for in terms of personnel. And that yields consistent success, regardless of some questions as to when starting quarterback Brock Purdy will be healthy. Signing Javon Hargrave makes us wonder whether that same swarming, violent defensive line from their Robert Saleh–era Super Bowl defense could be making a return. 

4

Philadelphia Eagles

Too low? Perhaps. But, the Eagles lost a great deal of brain power this offseason. It was not a net loss, of course. Replacing Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon with Sean Desai and Brian Johnson is not a crisis-level drop-off. Both Desai and Johnson have been considered fast risers in this business. However, any change comes with its inevitable adjustment periods. 

5

Baltimore Ravens

Too high? Perhaps. I’m not smitten by the pomp of the Odell Beckham Jr. signing as much as I’m excited for what someone like Todd Monken can bring to Lamar Jackson. I don’t think Baltimore is going to look fundamentally different, but I do think they will be in fewer positions where they have to throw their hands up offensively because of how their scheme boxed them in. The Ravens are not an organization that makes a lot of bad decisions, and so if they’re paying Lamar Jackson like a quarterback who may one day fulfill his wishes of throwing for 6,000 yards, then they believe he can, and will install a system to buoy that belief. 

6

Buffalo Bills

The Bills kick off their season on the road against the Jets :: Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network

The Bills had a good-not-great offseason, but I respect the pragmatism. Their splashy offseason is a year behind us, and they are hoping to supplement those moves instead of throwing good money around. I think in another year, the Bills will again be one of the best offenses in the NFL, but I suspect the way in which they are retooling will take a bit of time. A first-round tight end is rarely an immediate payoff pick.

7

New York Jets

Your guess is as good as mine. I just don’t think we can ignore, on paper, what could end up being the best quarterback to receiver connection in the NFL this year between Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson. Wilson is that good. The Jets have invested so much energy and cash into clearing out all their cobwebs, right on down to paying Quinnen Williams. Rodgers sees this as a multiyear window to compete for a Super Bowl. We’ll see whether his behavior supports that claim.

8

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are this year’s Chargers in terms of offseason hype. Can they avoid being last year’s Chargers in terms of on-field performance? Jacksonville had a great offseason, with the addition of Calvin Ridley being a potential conference-altering addition to the roster. It’s Make The Leap time for Trevor Lawrence. 

9

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were confident enough in their roster to stand pat this offseason, and they now arrive at training camp with plenty of questions to answer. (Among them, how the hell do you not just pay Zack Martin?)

10

Los Angeles Chargers

I think the Chargers are going to be really good this year. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will ever have the kind of roster-coaching staff synergy they need, because of their organizational structure and setup, which prevents them from having a Houston Astros–like depth to their roster (full of players who are fully adept in the scheme). That said, Brandon Staley is smart enough to figure it out. Justin Herbert, thanks to Kellen Moore, will finally be uncorked. 

11

Detroit Lions

I don’t think it’s possible to overhype this Lions team, because they are fundamentally sound where they need to be. They’re a football team built from the offensive line out, with depth at the running back position and a capable quarterback. While their weapons will take a little while to round into place (Jameson Williams will come back Week 7 following a gambling suspension), there will be plenty of ways to win if Detroit can stay healthy at critical positions.

12

Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa played in 13 of the Dolphins’ 17 games last season :: Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

Either Tua Tagovailoa could be an MVP candidate this year, or the Dolphins could find themselves where they were a year ago: talented but ultimately broken down at the tail end of the season. That is the beauty and the pain of a speed-oriented football team. Count me among those willing to bet on Mike McDaniel’s ability to figure it out. 

13

New York Giants

Brian Daboll’s second act as head coach, after stunning the NFL last year and reaching the playoffs, will be highly anticipated. Despite the brutal schedule, this is the deepest coaching staff in the conference, and Daniel Jones will be expected to elevate his play in accordance with his new contract.

14

New England Patriots

My favorite team to make a massive turnaround this year, the Patriots come into 2023 with almost no expectations but fertile ground for success. Notice how there has been far less panic around the offense—who is putting it together, what they are trying to do, etc. I would imagine Bill Belichick is right where he wants to be: properly disrespected and toiling in the dark.

15

Los Angeles Rams

Attention, Earthlings: The Rams are going to be good this year. You heard it here first, apparently. While most people are looking at this as a rebuild, I’m looking at their massive haul as an injection of youth into a roster that desperately needed it. Jalen Ramsey is gone, but I think that will help us see what a gem Raheem Morris is on the defensive side. 

16

Seattle Seahawks

I think the more we wonder if Geno Smith can replicate his performance from a year ago, the more we’re asking ourselves the wrong questions. Seattle’s offense was always meant to be built this way, and Smith is the first quarterback in a long while who is interested in taking advantage of those philosophies instead of working against them. Their defensive secondary is going to embody the best of what a Pete Carroll team could and should be. 

The last time the Seahawks made it beyond the wild-card round of the playoffs was 2019 :: Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports

17

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are sitting right here at No. 17 because, to me, it paints them as what I feel they will be: a disruptor on the fringes ready to make some serious noise. This is a faith in the system and a faith in the staff above all else, and while we can’t ignore the weight of losing someone like Rodgers, we also can’t ignore how much better the four-time MVP became playing for Matt LaFleur late in his career.

18

Minnesota Vikings

Perhaps the most controversial of rankings, I’m betting big on the Vikings leveling out, and I’m not guaranteeing that a transition to the Brian Flores defense is rock solid. I think Flores is great, but I wonder what kind of pieces are available to transition to something very traditionally Vic Fangio into something Flores is best suited for. While receivers are breaking out faster, we’ll see what Jordan Addison will bring to an offense that needs a strong running game before it can accentuate its wide receiver talent. 

19

Pittsburgh Steelers

The word on Kenny Pickett this offseason has been encouraging. He’s stronger and will show up to camp with noticeably more muscle mass, and we should see the highlight-reel deep balls clogging Pittsburgh’s social feed. This wide receiver room is too good to keep a young quarterback lingering in the bottom tier of NFL passers.

20

Cleveland Browns

Garrett was named a first-team All-Pro in 2020 and ’21 :: Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports

This is the year for Cleveland. While they are responsible for paying Deshaun Watson for the next four, I don’t think they are ever going to have a better offensive line and running game than they do now. Myles Garrett is only going to be in his athletic prime for so long. Bill Callahan is only going to coach up that front for so long. They remain, to me, a coin flip to make the postseason, with most of the pressure sitting squarely on No. 4.

21

Atlanta Falcons

We’re going to see what I imagine to be a football lover’s dream season: a really smart offensive head coach in Arthur Smith with an incredible slate of playmakers at his disposal and a quarterback made in his image. While Smith may have wanted more under center, creating an efficient distributor of the football is all you need when Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Tyler Allgeier are in your lineup. 

22

Tennessee Titans

Another one of my Dark Horses™ (Dark HORRses?) is the Titans, which, as I wrote, are behaving like a team that believes they are better than we think. Veteran rosters can ebb and flow, but if the Titans can get some surprise lifts from their younger key players, I don’t see why this couldn’t still be a contending roster. It wasn’t too long ago that we saw Kevin Byard as one of the best safeties in the NFL and Jeffery Simmons as an unblockable defensive tackle.

23

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young may not initially profile as the kind of player who will take the NFL by storm, but I have a hard time counting him out as an immediate impact. I think the Panthers will be able to quickly do more with Young than with some of his rookie counterparts, which may lead to a more robust offense. The key, to me, is how Carolina integrates their run game into a Young offense. That will sink or swim the Panthers in 2023.

24

Indianapolis Colts

Is it possible for Anthony Richardson’s Year 1 to look a little like Lamar Jackson’s first full season as a starter? Yes and no. If you look back at my profile of new Colts coach Shane Steichen, you’ll know that few other coaches have successfully tailored offenses to so many passers over various prototypes. Richardson will have an offense designed specifically for him in every way. That’s worth taking into consideration. 

The Colts and Richardson agreed on the terms of a four-year, $33.99 million fully guaranteed deal on Monday :: IndyStar/USA TODAY Sports

25

Las Vegas Raiders

I get bad vibes just thinking about the Raiders’ situation right now. There’s a feeling of combustibility, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t hit the ground running—or stay healthy. The Raiders were not only boxed out of the quarterback carousel, but they also left themselves very thin at the position behind an oft-injured, sometimes streaky player. This alone is enough to press pause on the hype train.

26

Denver Broncos

I think the Broncos have a smart plan. Their running game, especially, will be worth keeping an eye on as a tool to either bolster a reeling Russell Wilson or form the bedrock of an offense for Jarrett Stidham. I could honestly see either scenario playing out, but I think the Broncos are suited to find their niche in the division if they can block well consistently and maintain some efficiency with Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine.

27

New Orleans Saints

It’s worth noting that the Saints will look a lot more like the 2022 Raiders offensively (pre–Jon Gruden’s dismissal). Derek Carr responded well to the level of selective control he had at the line of scrimmage and all of the options built into each play that year. The quarterback did well under Gruden, and the Saints were smart to adopt those principles from his offense. Is that enough to save a roster that looks like it’s hanging on to its last legs?

28

Chicago Bears

The Bears are going to be young and exciting. Their best players, like 2022 fifth-round pick Braxton Jones, emerged during training camp last year and took the staff by surprise. I would expect that another good draft pieced together by this front office could backfill a roster that is still recovering from previous regimes.

29

Houston Texans

Ryans was named the 2022 Pro Football Writers of America Assistant Coach of the Year before joining the Texans :: Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports

I have my reservations about the team, despite some long-term optimism in DeMeco Ryans. Fair enough? For more on the Texans I’d check out this post, but this is a tough ask for a young quarterback on a team that is far more settled defensively than offensively. They have (potentially) good players at tentpole positions like cornerback and edge rusher, but we need to see how they perform at the NFL level. 

30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I would be surprised (I say this with no inside information) if the Buccaneers end the season as presently constructed. The chance to be strategically less-than-great for one year is right there as the Buccaneers recover from the end of the Tom Brady era. If Brady remains retired, why not get what you can for whoever is left on the roster? 

31

Washington Commanders

There is a world where the Commanders chip and putt their way to eight or nine wins this season. Ultimately, they have a good offensive line and a potentially great defensive line. The questions are obvious: What kind of production are they getting out of the QB? How vulnerable will their run defense be when they are planning to start a 166-pound cornerback in Emmanuel Forbes? Do they ultimately have enough firepower to compensate for the learning curve under center, assuming Sam Howell gets the job?

32

Arizona Cardinals

I still wonder how interested Kyler Murray will be in playing this season, or whether he will motor ahead with a critical period of ACL rehab if the on-field product is a bit of a mess. Arizona has the unenviable position of forcibly low expectations. However, inside those low expectations is the opportunity for us to be blown away by some of their young talent.