SI:AM | These Are the Teams That Can Actually Win the Super Bowl

Plus, the next era of the Big 12.

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. All the recent MLB trade activity has me really excited for what could happen between now and Tuesday’s deadline.

In today’s SI:AM:

🏆 The 12 true Super Bowl contenders

😬 Sean Payton blasts a fellow coach

🦬 What adding Colorado means for the Big 12

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One of these teams will win the Super Bowl (probably)

The NFL season will be here before you know it. Every team’s veterans reported to training camp this week, and the first preseason game of the year (Jets vs. Browns in the Hall of Fame Game) is Thursday. Every team opens the season with a “why not us?” attitude and hopes of winning the Super Bowl.

But of course, there are only a few true contenders. For the past few years, Conor Orr has kicked off the NFL season by compiling a list of 12 teams that actually stand a chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February. His 2023 list is out now, so let’s take a closer look at it.

Orr ranked his teams, adding that “the list drops off after No. 5, then again after No. 9.” So the top five teams on the list should come as no surprise. They are, in order, the 49ers, Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles and Bills. Makes sense, right? All four of last year’s conference finalists are represented, along with the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

All five of those teams will face significant challenges, though. For San Francisco, it’s questions at quarterback as Brock Purdy works his way back from a torn elbow ligament and battles with Trey Lance for the starting job. Cincinnati plays in one of the toughest divisions in the league (and Joe Burrow left practice yesterday with a calf injury). Kansas City must deal with a lack of depth at receiver following the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. Philadelphia lost both of its coordinators after getting to the Super Bowl last season. And finally, Orr writes that the “emotional weight” of Buffalo’s 2022 season must have been exhausting, and bouncing back could prove difficult.

Even still, those five are the clear favorites this season, and no one team stands out above the rest. But who else stands a chance? I won’t run down the full rest of the list (come on, I’ve got to give you a reason to click through to Orr’s article), but let’s take a look at a couple of the most interesting choices.

Orr has the Jets at No. 7, which might seem overly optimistic at first. After all, they haven’t made the playoffs since 2010 and have been so routinely hapless in that period (posting eight seasons with at least 10 losses) that it’s difficult to imagine them being competent, let alone a title contender—even with Aaron Rodgers. But all the pieces are there, Orr argues:

If a team has the NFL’s best player in the secondary, a really good set of players up front, a future Hall of Fame quarterback and last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year at wide receiver, it’s kind of impossible to leave it off the list, even if we have a hard time painting the mental picture.

Speaking of historically inept teams, Orr has the Lions—who haven’t won a playoff game since 1991—at No. 11. Detroit shocked everyone by going 9–8 last season in Year 2 under Dan Campbell. Orr likes the Lions primarily because of their offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season in both points and yards per play. The defense, meanwhile, ranked dead last in yards per play allowed and third to last in points allowed. If they can improve even slightly there, a division title is more than possible.

How about the teams that didn’t make the cut? Five teams that made the playoffs last season didn’t make Orr’s list: the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Seahawks, Jaguars and Giants. The Bucs’ problem is clear. They lost Tom Brady to retirement. As for the others, can they take a leap forward into title contention, or is the Super Bowl LVIII winner really somewhere on Orr’s list?

The best of Sports Illustrated

Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

• Conor Orr also wrote about Sean Payton’s harsh criticism of former Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett, calling his comments “a snake move.”
• Jets lineman Billy Turner called Payton a “f---ing bum” in response to those comments.
• Colorado’s decision to jump to the Big 12 means the conference isn’t just surviving after losing Texas and Oklahoma, it’s thriving, Pat Forde writes.
• Rohan Nadkarni argues Joel Embiid’s recent comments are an indication that the Sixers need to act quickly and send James Harden elsewhere.
• Colts owner Jim Irsay says the team hasn’t made a contract extension offer to running back Jonathan Taylor.
• The Mets started their sell-off by sending closer David Robertson to the Marlins.
• The benches cleared in the top of the first inning in St. Louis after Miles Mikolas threw at Ian Happ.
• Inter Miami continues to ride the Lionel Messi wave, with tickets to the club’s Aug. 2 Leagues Cup match nearing $1,000, per SI Tickets.

The top five...

… things I saw yesterday:

5. Red Sox prospect Ceddanne Rafaela’s heads-up baserunning to score after attempting to steal second.

4. Josh Naylor’s hustle double on a very weird grounder up the middle.

3. PGA Tour player Nick Hardy’s brilliant shot from behind a tree, which left him with a broken club.

2. Astros minor leaguer Jon Singleton’s 466-foot home run.

1. Shohei Ohtani’s preposterous day against the Tigers. In the first game of a doubleheader, he threw a one-hit, complete-game shutout. In the second, he hit two home runs—his MLB-leading 37th and 38th of the season.

SIQ

On this day in 1998, the day after setting a record for most career home runs before a player’s first grand slam, which slugger then became just the 18th player in MLB history to hit grand slams on consecutive days?

• Sammy Sosa
• Mark McGwire
• Barry Bonds
• Ken Griffey Jr.

Yesterday’s SIQ: On July 27, 2011, the Mets traded Carlos Beltrán to the Giants in a one-for-one deal for which then 21-year-old future All-Star pitcher?

• Jacob deGrom
• Matt Harvey
• Zack Wheeler
• Noah Syndergaard

Answer: Zack Wheeler. You rarely see a player of Beltrán’s caliber traded for just one prospect rather than a group of prospects, but Wheeler wasn’t your typical minor leaguer. The Giants had taken him with the sixth pick in the 2009 draft, and he immediately became a top-100 prospect.

While the trade didn’t amount to much for the Giants (they were in first place when they acquired Beltrán but went 25–29 in August and September as they missed the playoffs), Wheeler made his big league debut less than two years later, just after his 23rd birthday. Though injuries derailed his career and caused him to miss two full seasons, Wheeler has finally lived up to the hype since signing with the Phillies.