Trading Places? Mike Tomlin’s Future With the Steelers

The one way the coach’s long, distinguished run in Pittsburgh could come to a close. Plus: Exec of the Year favorites; the most important college QB stat; the hottest coaching candidates; and more in Albert Breer’s mailbag.

You had (really good) questions this week. I had answers. Let’s go …

From erickleinphd (@DrEricKlein): Do you think the Steelers would consider trading Mike Tomlin? And if so, would it take a first-round pick from another team to acquire him?

Erick, this is one way I could see Tomlin’s long, distinguished run in Pittsburgh coming to a close. Because if Tomlin and the Rooneys aren’t going to have the conversation on their own, this would be the way to force it on everyone.

Say Carolina’s David Tepper or Washington’s Josh Harris—both former minority owners in Pittsburgh—call Art Rooney and suggest a trade. Say they’re willing to part with a first-round pick and more. Say Rooney says he has to think about it, and then goes to Tomlin with the idea—after missing the playoffs (again, hypothetically) for a fourth time in six years.

Tomlin has been with the Steelers for 17 years, posting a record of 169–101-2 :: Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports

Wouldn’t Rooney have to discuss that with Tomlin? Both owners would likely pay top dollar for him. Both teams are in relatively close proximity to where Tomlin grew up in Hampton, Va. And if you have that conversation, where does it go? There are a lot of questions about the quarterback the Steelers took two years ago. Recent white flags waved by George Pickens and Diontae Johnson in games seem to run counter to what Tomlin has built.

I think it’s possible that conversation leads to the conclusion that, after 17 years, it’s simply time. That wouldn’t mean the Steelers don’t believe Tomlin is a great coach, nor would it mean that Tomlin was quitting on anyone, or that the team was losing its way. The youngest player on the Steelers roster, Keeanu Benton, was 5 years old when Tomlin got the job. Bill Cowher, Tomlin’s predecessor, left after 15 years, two fewer than Tomlin.

Honestly, I wasn’t really thinking this way until a couple of weeks ago. But after the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts games, I’m starting to think it’s possible.

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From Mitch Beiter (@MitchBeiter91): Your vote for Exec of the Year?

There are a lot of good candidates—I’d put Dolphins GM Chris Grier, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta, Cowboys exec Will McClay, Lions GM Brad Holmes and Rams GM Les Snead in that mix. And Eagles GM Howie Roseman is, and should be, in the running for this award annually now.

But I have a hard time not going with 49ers GM John Lynch. Think about it. We discount Brock Purdy’s MVP case because of what’s around him, and Christian McCaffrey’s case because he’s just one star in a galaxy of skill-position talent. Based on when the team’s lull came, you could have made a case that Trent Williams is the most indispensable player, and Nick Bosa is probably their best player. And because of all of that—and I don’t think this part is right, either—Kyle Shanahan doesn’t get a ton of mention for Coach of the Year.

So don’t you have to give someone credit for San Francisco’s excellence? How about the guy who led the building of this behemoth? Yes, Shanahan has a big say in personnel, but I’d argue that’s the way it should be, and Lynch has done a phenomenal job managing a lot of strong voices, between a scouting department led by assistant GM Adam Peters, an analytics/cap side captained by EVP of football operations Paraag Marathe, Shanahan and his staff. And the result has been football’s best roster by a healthy margin.

You could argue, in fact, it was football’s best roster last year, and somehow they were positioned to land Javon Hargrave in free agency, and Chase Young via trade, and that was within a year of making the move to get McCaffrey. And even when they’ve made mistakes (the Trey Lance deal), they’ve found a way to make up for them (finding Purdy).

Again, a lot of good candidates for the award. Tough call. Lynch would be my choice.

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From Alex Forrest (@alexcforrest): What (and who) is next in Atlanta? Coach, QB …

Alex, I’d start by saying that I don’t think Arthur Blank wants to fire Arthur Smith. I think the owner believes he has a top-shelf coach, and he’s not alone in feeling that way. The trouble, of course, is the results haven’t backed that up: Smith is now 20–28 in a time and place where less has gotten head coaches fired in the past.

I think there are two important pieces of context here to add.

One, the first two years for Smith and GM Terry Fontenot were dedicated to laying a new, younger foundation and cleaning up the salary cap—the Falcons carried over $60 million in dead money in 2022, meaning more than a quarter of their cap space was dedicated to guys who weren’t playing for them. So this is the first real year in which Atlanta is clear of that retooling.

Second, it does feel like this team is a quarterback away, and I don’t conceptually disagree with how Smith and Fontenot have approached it, which is to say they’d rather tread water at quarterback than go all in on a guy they’re not all in on (that was the case with quarterbacks in the draft, and Lamar Jackson last year). Basically, they didn’t want to manufacture strong feelings for a quarterback, and risk winding up with Christian Ponder in the first round.

The problem now is they’re three years in with a good, deep roster, and that approach at quarterback has left them trailing in a bad division. And remember, Blank had immediate success with three of the four coaches he’s hired: Jim Mora was in the NFC title game his first year, Mike Smith had five consecutive winning seasons and an NFC championship game appearance, and Dan Quinn was in the Super Bowl in his second year (one-year coach Bobby Petrino is the exception).

So does Blank waver now? Have Smith and Fontenot landed in a situation they wanted to avoid, pigeonholed into a single offseason to find a quarterback, with their first-rounder probably ending up outside the top 10? Has the roster building to this point allowed for the flexibility to bundle picks and move up? All of these are fair questions.

(To answer your question, I’ll go with Smith and a trade up for LSU’s Jayden Daniels.)

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A relevant stat that relates to a. quarterback's success in the NFL is the number of college starts, and LSU's Daniels has 55, which bodes well for him at the next level :: Matthew Dobbins/USA TODAY Sports

From johnwinger (@johnwinger98524): The stat on college quarterbacks success in the NFL and the number of starts they get in college is intriguing. Jayden Daniels has way more than Drake (Maye) or Caleb (Williams), so do front office people think he can challenge those two by the time the draft rolls around?

Love the question, John—that’s a great observation.

To better illustrate this, I’m going to tell you the story of Texas QB Quinn Ewers, and the mature decision I believe he’s about to make by staying in Austin.

The beginning of Ewers’s college career was bastardized by the dawn of the NIL era. As the nation’s most sought-after recruit, he was being offered big endorsement dollars, but Texas law on prep athletes prevented him from cashing in. So he reclassified, and enrolled at Ohio State a year early. He transferred home to Texas months later, won the starting job in 2022, and led the Longhorns to the College Football Playoff in his second year.

Most kids of that level would reclassify with the idea that it’d make them eligible for the NFL one year sooner, and I’m sure that was, to some degree, part of Ewers’s equation. But now, three years in, he and his camp looked at a pretty relevant stat to quarterback success in the NFL—number of college starts—and made the decision that he could use another year of development.

What they more or less found was that the baseline for a player to develop quickly as an NFL quarterback was 24 college starts. Among the first-round QBs with 23 or fewer college starts over the past 25 years: Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Akili Smith, Trey Lance, Mark Sanchez, Dwayne Haskins, Anthony Richardson and Mitchell Trubisky. Right now, Ewers has 21 starts, with the chance to get that number to 23 if Texas wins on Jan. 1, and it sure sounds like, at this point, he and his family have decided that’s not enough.

Here’s how that principle applies to this year’s draft class: Williams (33 starts), Drake Maye (26 starts), and J.J. McCarthy (26 starts) are well behind Daniels (55 starts), as well as Bo Nix (60 starts) and Michael Penix Jr. (43 starts). Of course, there’s a lot more that goes into this than just the number of college starts. But you’re right to think it’s part of the picture with guys such as Brock Purdy (46 starts) and Jalen Hurts (42 starts) having had a lot of early success.

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From Steven Rosso (@SLR_1985): Do the Chargers save Ryan Day, and hire away Jim Harbaugh?

Steve, I actually think the Chargers will look at the college ranks, simply because they’re looking at everything right now. So, Harbaugh, Day, USC’s Lincoln Riley … I’d expect over the next couple of weeks that Dean, John and A.G. Spanos will turn over rocks on all of them.

Now, as for the likelihood it’ll be Harbaugh?

That one’s interesting. The Michigan coach’s interest in going back to the NFL has been very real. He’s got a roster with 44 seniors, and faces a substantial rebuild—albeit with a strong program with the wind at its back—in 2024, especially with the likelihood that quarterback J.J. McCarthy is headed for the NFL. There’s also what he went through with the NCAA and the Big Ten this year, and the probability that more sanctions are coming that’ll impact both him and his team in the years to come.

So combining the circumstances, and his unfinished business as an NFL coach, this would seem to be the time for him to go back to the NFL. And the Chargers could provide the right opportunity, as the 49ers did in 2011. Like San Francisco then, the Spanos family could present Harbaugh with a veteran roster ready to win now and, in this case, he’d be inheriting a quarterback that doesn’t need to be reset the way that Alex Smith did 13 years ago. Then, there’s the fact that he actually played his final two seasons as an NFL quarterback with the Chargers.

And I can say that because the Chargers are sensitive to perception that they won’t spend (you can look at their payroll, and the new facility they’re building as evidence to the contrary), this might be a break-the-bank moment for them, to try and get the most of a starry core that’s not getting any younger.

But again, I can say for a fact that the Chargers have committed to making this a turn-over-every-rock search. Given that, it’s still too early to point to a single candidate, or even a particular type of candidate for this one.

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Johnson could end up mulling multiple coaching offers :: Junfu Han/The Detroit Free Press/USA TODAY Network

From R.K. Hanson (@RKHanson5): Who's the hottest coach for an NFL coaching job right now?

R.K., right now, it’s Ben Johnson. Lots of teams want a young offensive guru, and the buzz around Johnson has drowned out what you hear on other guys in that category. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he ends up mulling multiple offers, which could be a problem for teams relying on the “well, it’s one of 32” logic on the attractiveness of their job.

After Johnson, among the young offensive coaches, Bengals OC Brian Callahan deserves a lot more attention than he’s getting—and particularly for his part in keeping Cincinnati viable with Jake Browning. Giants OC Mike Kafka’s stock has been revived a bit by Tommy DeVito. Depending on how their season ends, Eagles OC Brian Johnson could figure in that mix, too, as well as Dolphins OC Frank Smith and Texans OC Bobby Slowik.

As for the experienced names, you know those: Harbaugh, Bill Belichick and Quinn.

Then, there’s the backlog of qualified defensive coaches on the list, such as Quinn, Rams DC Raheem Morris, Lions DC Aaron Glenn, Ravens DC Mike Macdonald, Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo and Vikings DC Brian Flores (on top of older second-chance types such as Jim Schwartz and Steve Spagnuolo). The hard reality for them is a number of owners will decide ahead of time that they’re going offense.

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From Spalding (@spaldingnfl): Does Washington get a new name rebrand again in 2024? Washington Red Wolves????

Spalding, I wouldn’t hold your breath, but I do think Josh Harris is open to ideas.

There are a lot of things that go into a name change. It’s complicated. It’s also risky. To me, changing the uniforms would be much easier. (I personally think that’s more of the problem than the name itself.)

From Joe Brenner (@BayAreaBrenner): What’s going on with Jalen Hurts? He looks like he’s regressed from last season. Drops his eyes and bails out of clean pockets. Feels like he’s trying to play hero ball when that offense is still an Avengers-level threat.

Joe, he’s played from behind more in recent weeks. He’s been in long yardage more. And that’s much more difficult than if you’re tied, or you’re leading, and you’re in second-and-6 and third-and-2 a lot.

It’s part of the growth of every young quarterback. Hurts is obviously a really good player. Maybe going through this, in the long run, makes him better. Maybe not.

Either way, it’s a bridge he inevitably would have to cross at some point.

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Cook carried 25 times for 179 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' rout of the Cowboys in Week 15 :: Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports

From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315): Given how they’ve done the past few weeks, how do you like Buffalo’s chances of getting into the playoffs? Might the Bills be turning the corner of stumbling over themselves?

Ed, I love the resilience of the group. They’ve had a rollercoaster year, no doubt. Losing Matt Milano, DaQuan Jones and Tre’Davious White early on killed the defense. The offense was, for a time, overly reliant on Josh Allen. But they were able to get past that, and I’m a big believer that there’s a benefit to going through that.

Getting Jones back—he started his window to come off injured reserve this week—would be big for a defensive line that’s grown into a deep, disruptive group. Allen has a growing run game (hello, James Cook), and an improving line playing great football. And the AFC playoffs won’t be the gauntlet that we thought it would be back in the summer, with so many quarterback injuries and the defending champion Chiefs looking a little wobbly.

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From Jeff Catalfino (@JeffCatalfino): Do the Bears keep Justin Fields and build around him, and do they do so starting with Marvin Harrison Jr.?

Jeff, I’ve answered this question a bunch in recent weeks. Here’s the Door 1-Door 2 scenario again, as succinctly as I can describe it.

Door 1: Keep Fields, trade the No. 1 pick for a bounty of picks, and continue to build around him. The idea here would be you’d have a very young team growing together around a young quarterback, albeit one that would get a lot more expensive in the next two years.

Door 2: Trade Fields, draft Williams, and reset the QB-on-a-rookie-contract clock over again. In this scenario, you might get a Day 2 pick, and a later pick, for Fields, but you’d have more cap space moving forward. So instead of building young like you would around Fields, you’d have the flexibility to build a more veteran group around the existing core and Williams.

Personally? I think the Bears walk through Door 2. But Fields has made a case for himself, for sure, and has survived some pretty tough circumstances, too. Also, in the first scenario, like you said, it’s possible you finagle a trade to get Harrison and all the extra picks, too, which is kind of enticing.