Key Matchups: Bengals Face Chiefs in AFC Championship For Second-Straight Season

The Bengals are hoping to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for a second-consecutive season.

The Bengals and the Chiefs will play each other for the fourth time in 392 days in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. 

Cincinnati is 3-0 in those contests, in large part to their defense. They have been Patrick Mahomes' kryptonite. Mahomes is 72-16 against every other team in the NFL and 1-3 against the Bengals.

Whereas, Joe Burrow has had great success against the Chiefs' defense and will look to continue his hot hand against them this week.

A Bengals' win Sunday would make Cincinnati the team to beat in the conference. It would give them four-straight victories over the Chiefs, wins over the Bills and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks, as well as two Super Bowl trips in as many years.

Do they get it done or does Kansas City take the crown in their fifth-consecutive AFC title game?

Let's take a look at the matchups to watch on Sunday:

Matchup of the Game: Bengals Pash Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

The biggest storyline of the game is the status of Mahomes' health. Despite suffering a high ankle sprain last week against the Jaguars, the quarterback was a full participant in practice this week.

Mahomes has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, but his lower body mechanics are his foundation; alluding defenders, rolling out of the pocket, planting, and cutting.

Depending on how much his ankle holds him back, the veteran gunslinger may have to revert to pocket passing. He was elite passing in the pocket this season completing 391 of 552 passes (70.8%) for 4,598 yards, 34 touchdowns, nine interceptions.

Cincinnati's defense can test Mahomes' mobility quickly by applying pressure. It will be interesting to see how Lou Anarumo schemes this attack. A large part in why Mahomes has struggled against the Bengals is their defense dropping seven or eight players into coverage and relying on a three or four-man rush at the line of scrimmage.

Between last year's AFC Championship game and Week 13 of this season, Mahomes is 8-of-18 for 78 yards, one interception, and five sacks against a three-man rush. 

The Chiefs' top-five offensive line will get Joe Thuney back for this game. The Pro Bowl guard missed the first meeting between the two teams. 

Although this offensive line finished with the best pass block win rate (75%) per ESPN Analytics, Andrew Wylie reamins a weakness at right tackle. Wylie has gave up nine sacks and 49 pressures in the regular season, according to Pro Football Focus. 

For an in-depth look at how Mahomes' ankle injury could impact the Bengals' defense, go to our film breakdown here.

Joe Burrow vs. Chiefs' Pass Rush

Burrow has played some of his best football against the Chiefs in his young career. He's averaging 327.3 yards per game and has thrown for eight touchdowns and just one interception.

A key factor in his success is that he's only been sacked six times in three games and four of those sacks came in their Week 17 win at Paycor Stadium last season. 

The Bengals will be without three of their top five offensive linemen again this week with Jonah Williams (knee) and Alex Cappa (ankle) out. La'el Collins suffered a torn ACL Week 16 against the Patriots. All three linemen started in their Week 13 matchup.

Jackson Carman, Max Scharping, and Hakeem Adeniji all stepped up last week against the Bills. They protected Burrow by surrendering just one sack and gave him time to throw throughout the game. 

They'll face a much better front-seven this week with a dominant rusher in Chris Jones, who is arguably the best interior defensive linemen in the league. He finished fourth with 15.5 sacks and is a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.

Kansas City's defense forced the fifth-most pressure on quarterbacks during the regular season (24.9%).

If the new-look offensive line can keep the pocket from collapsing and allow Burrow to run a spread offense effectively by getting the ball out early to his weapons, the quarterback should have another successful game picking apart a 19th-ranked Chiefs' secondary. 

Mike Hilton, Tre Flowers vs. Travis Kelce

Kelce is listed as questionable with a back injury heading into Sunday's game, but expect him to be full-go Sunday.

He is the heart and soul of this Kansas City offense outside of Mahomes. Kelce is hard to slow down, but Cincinnati has been able to dial up a formula to do just that in recent contests.

The Bengals defense has consistently double teamed the tight end with mostly Flowers paired with an additional corner or linebacker or safety. Flowers is the tallest corner in the NFL at 6'3". He's able to matchup well with the big-bodied receivers like Kelce.

Another area where Cincinnati has been able to slow down the All-Pro is at the line of scrimmage. Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard, or other edge defenders have jammed Kelce once the ball is snapped to disrupt his route before pursuing their pass rush.

As a result, Eric Bieniemy may split time between Kelce and Kadarius Toney in the slot.

Kelce led all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving yards from the slot in 2022, while the Bengals gave up the most targets (71), completions (47), and receiving yards (495) to tight ends in the slot this season according to Next Gen Stats.

Hilton is as physical as it gets as a slot corner. He doesn't have the size at 5'9" to matchup with Kelce, but he won't be afraid to jam Kelce as well and will have help with Flowers or Vonn Bell or Jessie Bates over the top.

Bengals Run Defense vs. Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon

When Mahomes struggled in Week 13, Pacheco and McKinnon picked up the pieces for this Chiefs offense. 

The duo combined for 117 yards on 22 carries (5.3 yards per carry). They found success on the ground outside of the hashmarks with their speed. Pacheco ran a 4.37 40-yard dash, while McKinnon clocked a 4.41 time.

Bieniemy avoided running right at DJ Reader in the middle to make Cincinnati's edge linemen and linebackers work against the running backs.

The Chiefs' offensive line is also one of the best in the run game. They finished third in run-block win rate (74%). Once Pacheco and McKinnon hit the second and third levels of a defense or open field, it's a nightmare scenario for opposing defenders.

With Mahomes' bum ankle and Bengals pass coverage gain against Kansas City, Pacheco and McKinnon could take on more of a load than normal in this game. 

Sam Hubbard, Trey Hendrickson, Joseph Ossai, Germaine Pratt, and Logan Wilson will all need to be ready to take down the speedsters out of the backfield.

Joe Mixon vs. Nick Bolton

Mixon did not play in the regular season meeting between these two due to a concussion.

He had one of his best performances of the season in Buffalo last week. The running back was clicking on all cylinders with 20 rushes for 105 yards and one touchdown.

The offensive line hit their assignments and opened holes against a top-five rushing defense led by Matt Milano and Tremaine Edwards. Mixon was awarded a game ball after last week's game, but gave the game ball to the offensive line for their part in his success.

Bolton is another great run-stopping linebacker. The second-year player led the Chiefs with 180 tackles. His nine tackles for loss was second on the team behind Jones (17).

A balanced attack was a key factor in the Bengals' three-possession win last week. Another big night from Mixon will keep an offense of many weapons from being one-dimensional and open up the playbook.

Cincinnati fights Kansas City for a spot in the Super Bowl this Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The game is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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