Bills Losing Grip on AFC East Stranglehold? 'Going to Be Difficult'

Have offseason distractions hurt the Buffalo Bills' ranking among the NFL elite?

The Buffalo Bills have become one of the more consistent teams in the NFL. But even after making the playoffs in five of the last six seasons, do they still rank among the league's elite?

Pro Football Focus' latest rankings release could help provide some insight. PFF ranked each NFL team and projected an over/under win total while also breaking down each team's biggest strength, biggest weakness, x-factor, and rookie to watch. 

PFF ranked Buffalo as the fifth-best team in the NFL and projected them to win over 10.5 games. 

"It’s going to be difficult to repeat in the competitive AFC East, but Buffalo has come out on top in this division three years in a row," PFF writes. "As long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills should remain the favorites in 2023."

The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals were the only AFC teams ahead of Buffalo. 

Allen was listed as the team's biggest strength and x-factor heading into next season. PFF touted Allen's ability to impact the game with his arms and legs, as he had the site's third-highest passing grade with an 85.2 and had a 92.8 rushing grade, which was No. 1 among quarterbacks. 

But even with his ability to hurt opponents through the air and on the ground, Allen's sometimes erratic play can hurt Buffalo. 

"While Allen is as explosive as they come at quarterback, his play style can be a rollercoaster, as his 33 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the NFL," PFF writes. "If Allen can bring that number down a bit, we’re looking at one of the most dangerous offenses in football."

Buffalo's biggest weakness was its depth at receiver. Outside of Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, PFF has its questions on who else will step up at the position, including Gabe Davis. Given the offseason drama surrounding Diggs and his role with the Bills, issues at receiver are the last thing the team needs. 

While those questions are warranted, a potential answer could come from PFF's rookie to watch for Buffalo. 

PFF tabbed Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid as the rookie to watch after he was the No. 25 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft this past April.

"Despite not drafting a receiver until the fifth round, the Bills managed to snag arguably the 2023 draft’s best pass catcher — regardless of position — in former Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick," PFF writes. "Buffalo may run more 12 personnel with Kincaid alongside the incumbent Dawson Knox in order to get the best group of pass catchers on the field."

In what should be a much more competitive AFC East, Buffalo has established itself as the class of the division after winning it three years in a row. But if the Bills are going to remain atop the AFC East, their hopes will likely rest on the shoulder of Allen like in years past. 

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