Buffalo Bills Betting: Over or Under 11.5 Wins?

The Buffalo Bills have had their win total over/under set at 11.5 wins at SI Sportsbook after going 11-6 last season. Progression or regression for the Bills?

The Buffalo Bills are tied for the highest win total over/under this season for SI Sportsbook. Last season, the Buffalo Bills won the AFC East with ease while holding an 11-6 record, and now have their win total over/under set at 11.5 wins. Currently, the Bills also are the Super Bowl favorites according to SI Sportsbook, with +650 odds.

Essentially, the SI Sportsbook is expecting the Bills to have a very comparable season to last, with a projected win total over/under right on par with last season. The question is: will they progress over the 11.5 win mark, or regress under it? Bettors would be best served going with the under.

While the Bills have actually taken huge steps forward this offseason due to the addition of edge rusher Von Miller and high hopes of new starters at receiver, their schedule won't be kind to them this season.

First and foremost, their division rival the Miami Dolphins have been making moves all offseason. Miami added three-time All Pro receiver Tyreek Hill, three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead, left guard Connor Williams and three different running backs. Having to face that team twice a year while prove much more troublesome this season for Buffalo.

Outside of the division, Buffalo plays the Rams, Bengals, Titans, Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, Steelers and Vikings. Six of the eight teams just listed made the playoffs last season and two were in the Super Bowl. Yikes.

The Bills also play the Cleveland Browns this season, which will be another tough game to win if Deshaun Watson isn't suspended for it.

Buffalo will be contender-level good this season and has earned the right to be the Super Bowl betting favorites. Smart money says that while the Bills should win their division and make a run for the Lombardi Trophy, they'll have a tough regular season ahead of them. There's nothing wrong with betting the under, and betting on regression from their 11 wins last season - as long as the accelerator is punched once the playoff begin.