Buccaneers NFL's Worst Rushing Team According to Analytics Measurements
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) face a tough matchup this Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills (4-3) in a primetime matchup that will be streamed on Prime Video as is every Thursday Night Football contest.
This means that while the Buccaneers are competing you can get insight and analysis on what's happening from Prime Video's analytics expert Sam Schwartzstein who has been an added feature to the game-watching experience helping fans see it through a whole new lens.
Schwartzstein recently joined the Locked On Bucs podcast to talk about the broadcast and project and started off by sharing his thoughts on Tampa Bay's most recent outing, an unfortunate loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
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"I saw a team that fought," Schwartzstein said of his observations following the Buccaneers' third loss of the season. "I think those huge win probability shifts off of the Desmond Ridder fumble when Antoine Winfield was able to make an individual play there and that gave (the Bucs) a shot to be back in this game. It could've been worse."
Saying the loss to the Falcons could've been worse won't comfort Tampa Bay fans very much, but the fact their team was in it and had an opportunity is step one to getting the win.
The ability to stay in games down to the final minutes is key, and something worth taking stock of even though the end result was not what anyone wanted.
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One reason the Buccaneers fell short of a second NFC South Divisional win in Week 7 was their lack of ability to take advantage of those win probability shifting plays says Schwartzstein, especially on the ground.
"Gotta be able to run the ball," Schwartzstein continued. "Especially for a team that wants to commit to it and play defense. They're asking (quarterback) Baker Mayfield to be not the risk-taker he used to be and he's been great at that. But that takes a team that is going to have to run the ball even when the opponent knows it and (Tampa Bay is) one of the worst teams rush yards over expected (RYOE)."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (No. 29) carries the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the 2022 NFL season.
Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA Today
The Buccaneers are more than 140 rushing yards in the hole when it comes to RYOE this season meaning they are rushing for more than 20 yards less than what is expected on average per week.
Those 20 yards turn into missed conversions on third down, lower probabilities when it comes to scoring in the red zone, and shortened drives leading to missed opportunities to put points on the board.
When you're a team coming out of a one-point loss that almost counts as two since it's within the division, that hurts even more.
And for the Bucs, the pain will only continue if their 0-2 record since coming out of the bye week becomes 0-3.
Making the recent loss more frustrating is the way Tampa Bay came out to start the regular season with back-to-back wins and three in its first four games, exceeding the season win total many had predicted for the team this season.
This dip in production and winning has now sent the Buccaneers back into the NFL hole many placed them in as soon as quarterback Tom Brady retired back in February.
"I thought this team was going to struggle because Baker Mayfield did not play his best football," Schwartzstein said of his preseason expectations. "He had a couple years there in Cleveland where he was playing at an extremely high level - we thought maybe he might have been up there with Josh Allen from that draft class. But then he became too much of a gunslinger...But he's really been able to change his game and focus on, 'How do I be a ball control guy?'"
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Mayfield will need to be that ball-control quarterback again this Thursday if the Bucs are going to earn an upset win over the Bills.
Schwartzstein pointed out that in Buffalo's wins this season they have a +7 turnover margin while having a -4 margin in their three losses.
Catch the full interview with Schwartzstein on the Locked On Bucs Podcast and be sure to tune into Prime Videos Prime Vision telecast where the analytics expert continues to share next-gen analysis throughout the game.
Stick with BucsGameday and the Locked On Bucs podcast for more coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throughout the 2023 season.
