Most Important Matchups Between Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Buccaneers have dominated the Falcons in recent years, in their last 8 matchups the Bucs are 6-2 against Atlanta. It has not been better with Arthur Smith either who is 1-3 in his career as the Falcons Head Coach against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay has beaten the Saints, Bears, and Vikings - three teams with a combined record of 6-12. While their losses have been at the hands of two 5-1 NFC juggernauts in the Lions and Eagles.
Games like this against the middle class of the NFC are going to be key to the Buccaneers being the next tier after the top NFC contenders.
They have proven they can beat bad teams but cannot hang with the upper-tier contenders. Now they get a shot at proving where they rank among the next group of NFC teams.
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This game is also huge for winning the division as well with the Falcons being the closest team in record to contending with the Buccaneers for the division.
The Buccaneers are coming off a demoralizing loss to the high-flying Detroit Lions who beat both the Buccaneers and the Falcons 20-6. The Falcons have also lost three of their last four games, this will be a crucial game for the direction these two teams are headed.
Winning the Turnover Battle
You always want to win the turnover battle in the NFL and it has been the key to the Buccaneers wins.
But the Buccaneers opponent this week has been particularly bad in winning the turnover battle, so it could be key to the Buccaneers winning.
Through the Falcons' three losses this season against the Lions, Commanders, and Jaguars they have lost the turnover battle a combined 7 to 1.
In total this season, they have committed 10 turnovers and only had 4 takeaways which ranks bottom 10 in both categories.
Things have also gotten worse for second-year QB Desmond Ridder and he has recently become very turnover-prone. He has thrown 5 of his 6 interceptions in the Falcons' last three games.
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If the Buccaneers are going to win and dominate this game they are going to need to create turnovers and take care of the ball. This season they have done that at a high level.
The Buccaneers have created 10 turnovers which ranks 7th in the league with only one of the teams ahead of them having played 5 games (teams who have had a bye).
With the Falcons' struggles to create turnovers and just how much more they have turned the ball over in recent games, the Buccaneers can win this game outright just through turnovers.
It has been the key to their wins so far and it can take the pressure off their struggling offensive production, especially the run game.
Third Down Battle
Turnovers and third down are the two biggest areas that win and lose games in the NFL and this game will be no different.
Tampa Bay's offensive success this season has been driven by their third-down efficiency. Over the first four games of the season, the Buccaneers converted 47.3% of third downs which would rank 5th behind only the Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, and Cowboys.
But they had their worst game of the season going 2-12 against the Lions, it killed drives and momentum for the offense.
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Atlanta has had one of the better defenses in the league with third down being their strong suit. Their defense ranks 12th in overall efficiency (EPA per play) but ranks 7th in third-down efficiency.
They have rejuvenated their defense with additions in free agency like Jessie Bates, Calais Campbell, and Bud Dupree and a new defensive coordinator - it has worked well so far.
For the Buccaneers offense which has been middle of the pack in most categories and elite on third down, this will be one of their toughest mismatches yet.
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Stick with BucsGameday and the Locked On Bucs podcast for more coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throughout the 2023 season.
