Buccaneers vs. Saints: Picks, Predictions and Takes
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can lock up the NFC South crown with a win at home against the New Orleans Saints this Sunday.
What stands in Tampa Bay's way of pulling off that feat? The fact that the Bucs have lost six regular-season games in a row to the Saints.
Despite the recent history of the rivalry, the Buccaneers are 11.5-point favorites over the Saints according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under for the game has been set at 45.5 points.
You can find AllBucs' picks and predictions for the game below.
Zach Goodall (10-3): Buccaneers 27, Saints 13
The Saints have been the Buccaneers' kryptonite in recent years during the regular season, but I believe that changes on Sunday. Without head coach Sean Payton (COVID-19) and their two starting offensive tackles (injuries) available, the Buccaneers' defense should have its way against a Saints offense that already struggles to move the ball and put points on the board as of late, thanks to the inconsistencies of quarterback Taysom Hill.
However, as I suggested in the three keys to a Bucs victory, Tampa Bay could lose control of this game if it doesn't win the turnover battle. As seen in Week 8 while New Orleans was still far from perfect offensively, the Saints capitalized on three turnovers committed by Tom Brady and responded by posting 16 points off of those turnovers.
That can't happen again if the Bucs are going to split the series with the Saints this year, and quite frankly, I don't expect the same results as Week 8. Whether it's Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones II primarily carrying the ball, I believe Tampa Bay will lean on its run game and play-action with a ball-control offensive scheme to beat New Orleans via death by 1,000 paper cuts.
Evan Winter (9-4): Buccaneers 24, Saints 16
If both teams were healthy, this would be another evenly-matched game that would also be considered a toss-up coming in. But that's not the case.
The Buccaneers are in fact the better team based solely on who's available. Yes, there are some unknowns in players like Antoine Winfield Jr., Richard Sherman, etc., but the Saints' loss of Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk is a killer. Granted, the Saints have schemed effective ways to limit the Bucs' pass rush in the past, but I'm not sure they'll be able to do that this time around without those two players.
And then there's the loss of Sean Payton. It's a huge loss, but Pete Carmichael Jr. has been with the Saints since 2009, so he knows which buttons to push to make the offense go. His in-game decision-making remains to be seen, however, and that will ultimately decide how successful he and the Saints' offense is on Sunday night.
As long as the Bucs play a clean game, they should win. Now, that hasn't been the case at all, lately, but this is December and the team is showing that it's geared up and ready for a final push, therefore, the NFC South is wrapped up in front of the country on Sunday Night Football.
Jason Beede (9-2): N/A
Did not submit a pick for Week 12 or Week 13
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