Colts 2022 Fantasy Preview: RB Jonathan Taylor
The Indianapolis Colts offense is going to have a few attractive options in it this fantasy football season, but none more so than running back Jonathan Taylor, the NFL's reigning rushing champion.
The third-year tailback is widely considered the top pick in drafts this summer and appears to be the least risky of the top running backs options.
You probably don't need convincing to draft a player who's been breaking records left and right, but here's what you might expect from him in 2022.
Average draft position and positional rankings from FantasyPros. Analysis based on traditional lineups with PPR scoring.
RB Jonathan Taylor
- Current ADP — 1.0
- Current Positional Rank — RB1
- 2022 Strength of Schedule — 16th easiest
- 2020 — 15 games, 232 carries, 1,169 yards (5.0 avg.), 11 TD, 36 receptions (39 targets), 299 yards (8.3 avg.), 1 TD, 1 FL
- 2021 — 17 games, 332 carries, 1,811 yards (5.5 avg.), 18 TD, 40 receptions (51 targets), 360 yards (9.0 avg.), 2 TD, 2 FL
- Average Per Season — 282.0 carries, 1,490.0 yards (5.2 avg.), 38.0 receptions (45.0 targets), 329.5 yards (8.7 avg.), 16.0 total TD, 1.5 total TO
Track Record Speaks for Itself
Taylor burst onto the scene as a rookie, finishing third in the NFL in rushing and capping off his season with the Colts' single-game rushing record, totaling 253 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17. But his incredible sophomore season was even better, leading the league in rushing over the next player by 25 carries, 552 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns. As a matter of fact, Taylor had 1,272 rushing yards after contact alone, which would've been good enough for third in the league overall.
He had perhaps the greatest season for a running back in Colts franchise history, setting several team bests, but he also made his mark league-wide. Taylor tied for the most consecutive games in NFL history with at least 100 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown (8) and is also the youngest player in NFL history with at least 2,000 scrimmage yards (2,171) and 20 scrimmage touchdowns (20) in a single season. If Taylor repeats his season average of 16 touchdowns in 2022 then he'll break legendary running back Barry Sanders' record of 47 total touchdowns through his first three seasons.
Through two seasons, Taylor has started 30-of-32 games and totaled 640 touches for 3,639 yards (5.7 avg.) from scrimmage and 32 touchdowns.
Horseshoe Huddle lead analyst Zach Hicks and I recently discussed what Taylor's production may look like in 2022 on the Locked On Colts podcast.
Renewed Priority in Passing Game
The biggest "yeah, but" people have about Taylor this upcoming season is the arrival of new quarterback Matt Ryan, who provides an upgrade for the Colts at the position from last year. In theory, Ryan should stabilize the passing game, making it so the Colts don't have to rely on Taylor as much as they did last year.
However, just because Taylor may not receive as many carries doesn't mean he won't be put in a better position as a receiver.
One of the biggest areas of Ryan's game is his accuracy, and he's willing to get running backs heavily involved in the passing game. Both Taylor and Nyheim Hines are expected to benefit greatly from Ryan's presence. That's especially considering the Colts don't have any significant receivers or tight ends on the offense behind Michael Pittman Jr.
Taylor's receptions jumped up from 36 as a rookie to 40 last year, and targets from 39 to 51. His volume in the passing game may be similar to last year, but the efficiency should be better due to Ryan.
While Ryan's arrival is still good news for Taylor, it does probably mean that Hines will eat into Taylor's snaps ever so slightly. The Colts like to get both players on the field at the same time but the fact is sometimes Hines will be the only running back. His 31.6% offensive snap percentage from last year is the second-lowest of his career, and the Colts will make it a priority to get him on the field more often.
Deserved No. 1 Pick
Taylor duplicating what he did in 2021 by racking up over 2,100 total yards and 20 touchdowns shouldn't be the expectation. However, the Colts will still hope to run their offense through their superstar running back. His statistical distribution may just look a little different.
Taking all things into consideration, Taylor's rushing output may come down closer to 1,400-1,500 yards, but his receiving yardage could see an increase up into the 450-500 yard range. A ballpark estimate of 15 total touchdowns also seems fair.
While there are factors at play that point to the Colts being less reliant on Taylor, it can't be ignored that he increased his overall game from Year 1 to Year 2, including yardage and touchdown totals as well as averages.
Taylor is entering his prime and shows no signs of slowing down. I know who I'm selecting if I'm sitting at pick No. 1 overall.
OTHER COLTS FANTASY PROFILES
What do you expect from Taylor in 2022? Drop your thoughts in the comment section below!
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