Colts 2022 Fantasy Preview: QB Matt Ryan
For the last decade-plus, Matt Ryan has been one of the fantasy football community's favorite quarterbacks.
He has rarely been a guy you have to reach for in the first half of the draft, but you could grab him in the later rounds and still get QB1 production.
Last year, that reputation took a hit as Ryan's faltering Atlanta Falcons struggled and the veteran signal-caller wasn't able to maintain his usual level of statistical productivity.
Now, Ryan is a member of the Indianapolis Colts, and despite his age (37) and recent history, there's plenty of reason to believe that "Matty Ice" will be back to himself in 2022.
Average draft position and positional rankings from FantasyPros. Analysis based on traditional lineups with PPR scoring.
QB Matt Ryan
- Current ADP — 152.0
- Current Positional Rank — QB20
- 2022 Strength of Schedule — 13th hardest
- 2019 — 15 games, 408-of-616 passing (66.2%), 4,466 yards (7.3 YPA), 27 total TD, 19 total TO
- 2020 — 16 games, 407-of-626 passing (65.0%), 4,581 yards (7.3 YPA), 28 total TD, 14 total TO
- 2021 — 17 games, 375-of-560 passing (67.0%), 3,968 yards (7.1 YPA), 21 total TD, 16 total TO
- Average Per Season — 16.0 games, 396.7-of-600.7 passing (66.1%), 4,338.3 yards (7.2 YPA), 25.3 total TD, 16.3 total TO
Re-Establishing Himself as a QB1
Ryan finished as fantasy's QB20 last season but has only ranked below QB15 one other year in his 14-year career. He's finished among the top 10 quarterbacks in eight seasons, and averages as QB10.6.
What prevented him from his usual top status in his last season with the Falcons? Matthew Freedman of FantasyPros puts it well here.
"If you were a quarterback and I put you with a first-year head coach and took away your top wide receivers (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley), you’d probably have a bad year," Freedman argues. "That’s what happened to Matt Ryan in 2021. In his five games last year with Ridley, Ryan averaged 22.2 fantasy points per game. In his 12 games without him, Ryan averaged just 14.1. With a seasoned head coach and respectable No. 1 wide receiver (Michael Pittman), Ryan should rebound in 2022."
Freedman's right; Ryan should rebound in 2022, and here's why:
Pairing with Frank Reich
Ryan has already been one of the NFL's most productive passers throughout his career, and now he's being paired with one of the NFL's best offensive minds in Colts head coach Frank Reich.
Reich has been able to get the best out of the quarterbacks he's worked with, most notably helping Nick Foles, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz get back on track after injuries or disappointing seasons to play some of the best football of their careers.
From a fantasy perspective, since arriving in Indianapolis, Reich has never had a quarterback finish below QB20. In 2018, Luck was QB7, in 2019, Brissett was QB20, in 2020, Rivers was QB18, and last year, Wentz was QB15.
The sportsbooks in Las Vegas have been releasing their over/unders for NFL players and their stats recently, and Ryan's were put at 3,850.5 passing yards, 24.5 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Horseshoe Huddle lead analyst Zach Hicks and I recently discussed why Ryan will outperform these marks on the Locked On Colts podcast.
He is likely to surpass that yardage, as he's only dipped below 4,000 yards once since 2011 (last year), and he's had at least 25 touchdown passes in nine of his 14 seasons. Ryan can still be a prolific, high-volume passer, as evidenced by leading the NFL in pass completions both in 2019 and 2020.
Solid Offensive Foundation
It always makes a quarterback's job easier when there is stability around him in pass protection and in the run game. That should be the case for Ryan as he'll have the league's reigning rushing champion by his side in Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor couldn't have done that without a quality offensive line to run through. The Colts are ushering in a new left tackle and right guard this year, but the expected starters were the team's two best reserve linemen last year in Matt Pryor and Danny Pinter, respectively. The line may actually get better considering Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith played hurt through much of the season.
The attention that Taylor commands from defenses in the box should present a thinner secondary for Ryan to pass against. Establishing the run with Taylor will also help with big plays from play-action.
Diverse Group of Pass-Catchers
Many people outside the organization are skeptical about the Colts' young receiving corps, and rightfully so; outside of Michael Pittman Jr., no other current Colts receiver caught more than 13 passes last year. However, the Colts are confident that Ryan's accuracy and leadership can help these young pass catchers elevate their game. In fact, when you look at the group that Ryan will have as a whole, it's an attractive one when considering potential.
Pittman is the team's established WR1 and is coming off of his first 1,000-yard season. Parris Campbell, when healthy, can stretch the field and is dangerous with the ball in his hands. There are high expectations for rookie second-round pick Alec Pierce, who has length, speed, and wins contested catches. The Colts also have other big, young, athletic players like Ashton Dulin, Kylen Granson, Dezmon Patmon, and Mike Strachan. Tight ends Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods are massive pass targets, and running backs Nyheim Hines and Taylor are both high-end playmakers by land and air.
Pittman, Alie-Cox, Patmon, Woods, and Strachan are all at least 6'4", so that should help Ryan in the red zone. The Colts likely already plan to pass more in the red zone this year given Ryan's accuracy, so that should take some touchdowns off Taylor's plate and onto Ryan's.
OTHER COLTS FANTASY PROFILES
What do you expect from Ryan in 2022? Drop your thoughts in the comment section below!
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