Peyton Manning Week: Draft Manning or Ryan Leaf?

The Indianapolis Colts knew they were drafting a quarterback with the No. 1 overall selection in the 1998 NFL draft, but were divided on whether to take Tennessee’s Peyton Manning of Washington State’s Ryan Leaf.

INDIANAPOLIS — In the beginning, as hard as it is to believe, the Indianapolis Colts could have ended up with Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton Manning.

As much as 20-20 hindsight into Colts history couldn’t be clearer that Manning was the correct choice with the No. 1 overall pick in 1998, a decision that dramatically changed the franchise, as well as the Indianapolis sports landscape, was initially uncertain.

Truth is, when Colts general manager Bill Polian consulted with his coaches and scouting staff, the feedback was 50-50. Some were convinced Leaf had the stronger arm and greater upside. And other teams thought so, too.

A Newsday poll of 20 NFL general managers favored Leaf over Manning: “The overwhelming consensus: Manning may have the more recognizable name, but Leaf clearly is the preferred quarterback among league executives. Fourteen of the 20 polled said they would draft Leaf over Manning, citing the Washington State quarterback’s stronger arm, better mobility, and more promising long-term prospect as a franchise-caliber player.”

Think about that. Leaf could have come to the Colts, flamed out of the NFL in four years as he did after three forgettable seasons with the San Diego Chargers, and Manning’s statue could be in California now instead of in front of Lucas Oil Stadium.

It's Day 1 of Peyton Manning week at SI 🙌

Before Tom Brady left New England, Peyton's NFL free agency was one of the most discussed in decades. @Peter_King had the scoop in 2012 and came on 'The Record' to share how Manning to the Broncos came to be: https://t.co/rZ0x9JrXNB pic.twitter.com/NnCMr5bRM7

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) May 18, 2020

In retrospect, Polian conceded the Colts gave the decision more than the usual due diligence.

“It was just too important a decision not to do everything possible to make sure you were 100 percent comfortable with the choice,” Polian told The Indianapolis Star during his first season with the Colts. “We were not going to leave any stone unturned.”

Scouts favored Leaf. Polian, head coach Jim Mora, offensive coordinator Tom Moore and quarterbacks coach Bruce Arians liked Manning.

“The coaches, almost to a man, pretty much leaned toward Peyton,” Polian said. “Tom was the biggest supporter, but Bruce was in that camp, too. I was probably leaning toward Peyton, but I have to admit I had some strong-arm concerns, which turned out to be incorrect. The intangible part, that was Peyton by a very wide margin.”

Workouts became a telling factor. Manning impressed in an April 1 session in Knoxville, Tenn.

“Tom and I stood together at the workout and were astonished at his arm strength,” Polian said. “He threw a tight, hard ball. It wasn’t even the most catchable ball. He rifled it. Tom put him through a workout where he asks the quarterback to throw flat-footed. Peyton just rifled it out there. There wasn’t a question in our mind after that about arm strength.”

The next day in Pullman, Wash., Leaf didn’t perform as well as Manning under the watchful eyes of Polian and Moore.

“We looked at each other and kind of raised our eyebrows,” Polian said. “There was a marked difference in the velocity and spin rate of Ryan’s ball versus Peyton’s.”

When Manning showed up for his NFL Scouting Combine interview, he was prepared with a yellow notepad in hand. Leaf reportedly missed his Colts chat because agent Leigh Steinberg told Polian his client was given the wrong time. Mora was livid that Leaf didn’t bother to contact the team.

In what became an unforgettable conversation, Manning called a little more than a week before the draft and pressed Polian on the Colts’ choice. Polian said he would let Manning know before the quarterback departed to attend the draft in New York City.

That’s when Manning let Polian know his rather pointed position.

“He told me, ‘If you pick me, I guarantee you that we will win a championship and we’ll have a great program here,’” Polian recalled Manning saying. “If you don’t, I’ll come back and I’ll kick your butt.”

Polian then added, “He didn’t say ‘butt.’”

The rest is well-known history. Manning proved to be a man of his word.

Manning became the NFL’s only-five time MVP. He’s considered one of the finest field generals in history for his mastery of the no-huddle offense and calling his own plays after a series of checks at the line of scrimmage.

Just like at the combine, Leaf showed up overweight in San Diego. He won four games in four years with the Chargers and Dallas.

The Colts won Super Bowl XLI in 2007, with Manning named MVP. He added a second ring with the Denver Broncos, his final season in 2015.

Leaf is often regarded as the greatest draft bust in history. He also got busted for drug-related charges. Released from prison in 2014, Leaf has managed to rebuild his life and become an ambassador for helping people with addiction and mental illness.

That same year, agent Leigh Steinberg revealed in his book The Agent that Leaf didn’t want to play in Indianapolis and preferred the California lifestyle. Steinberg wrote that he and Leaf sabotaged the draft process by missing that Colts meeting on purpose. Steinberg anticipated how Mora would react.

“If you go to the combine,” Steinberg told Leaf, according to the book, “but fail to show up for a meeting with Mora, that should do it. Jim is a real prideful person who has a tendency to explode. I am not recommending you do this, but if you are desperate to go to San Diego, this is the way.”

Polian vehemently disputed Steinberg’s claim in a 2014 ESPN interview.

But what does it really matter? The Colts got the right guy.

In 2017, the Colts had a ceremony in the Northwest plaza in front of Lucas Oil Stadium and South Street to unveil Manning’s bronze statue, sculpted by artist Ryan Feeney. Former two-term Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels recalled how he had responded to criticism about the stadium costing $720 million: “Just build it. Peyton will fill it.”

Manning becomes eligible next year for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which will undoubtedly add his bronze bust as a unanimous first-ballot induction.

The historical date to remember, though, is April 18, 1998, when Manning held up his blue No. 18 Colts jersey.

During the statue unveiling, Manning mentioned in his speech how as a child he read the Dr. Seuss book Oh, the Places You’ll Go! and related a passage that applied to when the Colts drafted him.

“I never would have imagined how perfect those words would be on draft day, 1998,” Manning said. “‘Today is your day,’ it said. ‘You’re off to great places. You are off and away.’”

Much to the delight of an adoring crowd, Manning closed his speech with, “I will always be a Colt.”

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)