NFL Draft Order: Commanders Path to No. 2 Pick Revealed

What will it take for the Washington Commanders to land the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?

The Washington Commanders currently hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but holding onto it isn't as simple as one would think. 

Washington (4-12) is currently tied with the New England Patriots (4-12) and Arizona Cardinals (4-12) for the No. 2 overall pick. With strength of schedule being the deciding factor when teams have the same record, Arizona will need to lose vs. the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday and for Washington and New England to win their respective games to earn the second pick. The Commanders currently hold the tiebreaker for the No. 2 overall pick. 

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Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent for NBC News who also breaks down playoff probabilities, broke down what it will take for the Commanders and Patriots to earn the No. 2 overall pick if they each lose on Sunday on NFL insider Peter Schrager's podcast "The Season." 

Where things get complicated is if the Commanders and Patriots lose their games. Both teams would be 4-13, and the margin between their strengths of schedule is razor thin. The record of Washington's opponents this season is 140-132, while the record of New England's opponents is 141-131. 

A lot of uncertainty for the #2 spot in the 2024 Draft. Who’s getting it? 👀

Watch the full clip with @SteveKornacki and @PSchrags ➡️ https://t.co/NERtUMb7W3 pic.twitter.com/KQ25i3lv1m

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 3, 2024

If New England and Washington are each 4-13, the one game that could have the most significance toward who gets the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) vs. New Orleans Saints (8-8). Washington beat Atlanta 24-16 earlier in the season, while the Saints blew out the Patriots 34-0. 

Because of those results, New England will need the Falcons to beat the Saints to get the No. 2 pick, while the Commanders need New Orleans to beat Atlanta. If the Saints and Falcons tie, head-to-head becomes the tiebreaker for the No. 2 pick, which would be the last thing Washington wants. Because the Commanders beat the Patriots 20-17 in Week 9, New England gets the No. 2 overall pick if they finish the season with the same strength of schedule. 

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In simpler terms, Washington needs to lose and the Saints to win to earn the second pick, while New England needs to lose and the Falcons to win. 

The Patriots face the New York Jets (6-10) on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. New England beat the Jets 15-10 in Week 3 at MetLife Stadium.

Washington closes its season on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET against the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at FedEx Field. The Commanders lost to Dallas 45-10 on Thanksgiving at AT&T Stadium.