NFL Betting Power Rankings: Commanders Too Low?

Looking at the betting market, Pro Football Focus stacked and ranked each NFL team, including the Washington Commanders.

You may or may not be aware of the national narrative surrounding the Washington Commanders, but most expect the team to finish at or near the bottom of the NFL this coming season. 

While the Commanders defense is certainly formidable, the presence of 2022 fifth-round draft pick Sam Howell as the team's starting quarterback appears to be the main reason most have low expectations for this team. 

"Washington will find out quickly what it has with Sam Howell, which is the best way to approach the quarterback position," says Pro Football Focus. "If things go well, the Commanders have a viable long-term option at quarterback and if not, they are in line for a top draft pick."

With Howell at the helm, PFF stacks and ranks Washington as the 25th team in the NFL using betting trends and an ELO rating system to aid in the process. 

Part of the reason the Commanders are expected to do so poorly is their opponent ELO ranking seventh, making their schedule the 26th most difficult in the league. 

This ranking was calculated using not just the quality of each NFL team and it's parts, but also rest time between games, and the location of the contest. 

Given those factors, PFF also concluded Washington's toughest stretch will come from Weeks 2 to 4 when it hosts the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears, but also visits the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Commanders will enter Week 2 in Denver coming off a home opener against the Arizona Cardinals while their opponent gets two straight home games to start the year.

In Week 3, Washington returns home but does so facing quarterback Josh Allen and the Super Bowl-contending Buffalo Bills.

Another road trip awaits the Commanders after that tough home contest with a trip to face the Eagles, although a primetime matchup on Monday night for their opponent the week prior narrows the favor gap a bit.

From Week 4 to 5, Washington gets to go back home, but the price of return is a Thursday Night Football appearance.

Doubt in Howell - or at least uncertainty - a strong list of opponents, and a tough opening stretch to the season are all contributing factors to why the Commanders are significant underdogs this year. 

But if they come out of the first five weeks with even moderately positive results, all of those reasons for doubt could become quantifiable evidence to point to Washington as a surprise team in 2023.

Find David Harrison on the Locked On Commanders podcast or text him directly at (202) 760-2188.

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