Cowboys Playoffs Path Math: Can Dallas Sweep NFC East Rival Philadelphia Eagles?

The best path for the Dallas Cowboys to make a deep playoff run would be to sweep the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles.

At 5-2, the Dallas Cowboys will almost certainly make the playoffs in 2023. But their best path to making a Super Bowl run would be to only play two games in the NFC playoffs, and to have both of those tilts come at AT&T Stadium. To earn a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Cowboys will probably need to sweep the NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles in the regular season. 

At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves ... the Playoff Path Math ...

Two of Dallas' next six games will be against the 7-1 Eagles, who currently lead them by two games in the NFC East race. Philadelphia is about to enter a gauntlet of games, as they will face the Cowboys in Week 9, and then return after their Week 10 bye and face off with the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers, before facing the Cowboys again. There's an outside chance that the Cowboys could split the two matchups with the Eagles and still be in play to win the NFC East if the Eagles lose all three of the games sandwiched in between the pair of divisional matchups. 

Realistically, though, if Dallas wants to win the division and have a shot at top seed in the NFC, they will probably need to sweep the Eagles. That would start in Week 9, where quarterback Dak Presccott and the Cowboys have opened as three-point road underdogs in Lincoln Financial Field. And then -- assuming Dallas takes care of business between the two matchups -- they would also need to be victorious against the Eagles at AT&T Stadium on Dec. 10. 

Dallas did defeat the Eagles on Christmas Day 2022, but quarterback Jalen Hurts missed the game with a shoulder injury. The Cowboys instead defeated the Gardner Minshew-led Eagles 40-34 in Dallas. They had previously lost 26-17 to the Eagles in Philadelphia earlier in the season. While Hurts is currently dealing with a bone bruise in his left knee, there's no evidence that he won't play in both games against the Cowboys. So there's a good chance that quarterback Dak Prescott -- who has an impressive 8-3 career record against the Eagles -- will need to outplay Hurts twice in the next six games for the Cowboys to have a shot to win the NFC East. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys still have a chance to pass Haason Reddick and the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East and NFC as a whole.  / USA TODAY Sports

Even if the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice, they may need some help elsewhere in the NFC to earn the conference's top seed, which comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

The 5-3 San Francisco 49ers have lost three games in a row, but by virtue of their 42-10 win over the Cowboys in Week 5, they would own the tiebreaker over Dallas should both teams finish with the same record. Additionally, both the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks are also 5-2, so if the Eagles slip up, they will also be in the race for the top spot in the NFC. 

But as former coach Jason Garrett noted, the Cowboys seem to be a significantly better team on the artificial turf of AT&T Stadium. Cowboys SI's Bri Amaranthus recently pointed out that Dallas has won 11 straight home games at AT&T Stadium, and has a +78 point differential in home blowout wins over the New York Jets, New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams this season. 

The opponents will be more difficult come January, but the Cowboys perhaps need home-field advantage more than any other team in the NFC. Usurping the Eagles and winning the NFC East would assure that any playoff matchup between the two foes would come at AT&T Stadium, as opposed to the natural grass field at Lincoln Financial Field. In the process of winning the division, the Cowboys might be able to also avoid a second trip to the natural grass field at Levi's Stadium, where they previously lost by 32 points. 

Ironically, a best-case scenario for the Cowboys would need to start with a road win in Philadelphia in Week 9.