Cowboys at Miami Analysis: Trend Reveals Optimism for Run Defense

The Dallas Cowboys saw the run defense fall apart in Week 15, but the Miami Dolphins' approach to the ground game could be a relief, despite its production.

There are no two ways about it: the Dallas Cowboys were embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. Winning in the trenches is vital week in and week out, and in one of the regular season’s most anticipated games, the defensive line fell flat. The back seven may have been even worse.

Dallas’ trip to Western New York ended in a 31-10 loss. Buffalo ran for an unforgivable 266 yards. Running back James Cook, whose consistency has proven elusive, had a career day and backup Ty Johnson followed suit, posting 54 yards in his highest rushing total of the season.

Sunday’s action was a direct indictment on the state of the Cowboys run defense, which now ranks dead last in success rate (45.3 percent).

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) spikes the ball after scoring a touchdown past New York Jets safety Tony Adams (22) during the first half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Dec. 17, 2023 :: © Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

With a trip to South Beach and a date with the vaunted Miami Dolphins on deck, it’s easy to feel apprehensive. Head coach Mike McDaniel has creatively schemed up explosive plays left and right, turning veteran back Raheem Mostert into a franchise record holder for rushing touchdowns in a season.

Although their ground game is as efficient as the Bills’, how they go about it mitigates some of the concerns Sunday’s actions may have introduced.

For one, Buffalo found its success by playing bully ball, using their size advantage over Dallas’ small linebackers. While the Bills found some chunk gains on the perimeter, their success between the tackles exceeded expectations and proved lethal.

Per Pro Football Focus, Cook was productive between the B-gaps. He averaged 5.8 yards per attempt behind his left guard, 4.7 and 5.0 yards on either side of the center, and 18 behind the right guard. It’s an imperfect measure but furthers the notion that the spine of the defense struggled mightily.

Miami, however, has struggled to find as much consistency up the middle. Injuries across the offensive line have dampened its unprecedented start to the year, and when forced to work inside the tackles – especially on later downs – the Dolphins have ground to a halt.

Take, for example, their rushes on late downs. On those rushes, with a win probability between two and 98 percent, Miami ranks 32nd in both expected points added per play and success rate. The difference between their expected points added and the 31st-ranked team (the Carolina Panthers) is greater than the difference between 31st and 14th.

If the Cowboys get beat on the ground, it won't come in the same fashion as last week. It may, however, be a result of poor tackling, which hurt them in Buffalo.

“Our tackling was not up to our standard …” said defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. “It’s disappointing because that’s one of the things we hang our hat on.”

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Week 16 will demand Dallas tackles. Against the most explosive offense in the sport and a tendency to push the ball horizontally, it will be of the utmost importance. Tackling, unlike the fundamental flaws built into the Cowboys’ roster construction, can be a fairly quick fix. Their hopes of winning the NFC East depend on it.

“The good news I would say is that this is correctable week to week,” said owner Jerry Jones. “We have the talent … We can specifically address what beat us in Buffalo.”

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Dallas’ small, fast defense has its shortcomings, but few teams have the athleticism to even sniff the Dolphins. There’s a reason they’re so dangerous, and why the over/under (50.5) is the highest of Week 16, but the Cowboys match up fairly well.

If the tackling improves, Miami’s rushing attack—especially between the tackles—should be contained. That won’t be enough to beat the Dolphins, but it’s a start to not getting trampled like they did in Week 15.