Early NFL MVP Odds and the Dolphins Problem

The favorites features a lot of AFC quarterbacks

Along with odds for the Super Bowl LIX champions, early odds already have been released for the 2024 NFL MVP award.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is among the top 10 candidates for some of the better-known sportsbooks, including being 10th at +1800 odds with the DraftKings Sportsbook.

But the big takeaways from looking at the various sportsbooks is the expectation that the AFC is not going to be getting any easier to navigate next season.

Of course, this starts with the conference having the three quarterbacks who have won the award twice in the past six seasons — 2023 winner Lamar Jackson, Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, who will be looking to rebound next season after missing but four snaps of his first season with the New York Jets.

Mahomes and Jackson, as expected, are among the top favorites for NFL MVP honors, but it's not just them. There's also Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert.

According to Bet MGM, to pick one, the top six favorites all are AFC QBs: Mahomes, Allen, Burow, Stroud, Jackson and Herbert.

DraftKings Sportsbook's top five, meanwhile, is an all-AFC group with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Jackson and Herbert, with Stroud eighth behind Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers.

And maybe the most eye-opening odds of all come from Bet Online, which have eight AFC quarterbacks listed ahead of Tagovailoa, who is 13th overall. The list includes Mahomes (first), Allen (second), Burrow (third), Stroud (fourth), Herbert (fifth), Jackson (seventh), Rodgers (11th) and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars (12th).

Now, we know things never work out the way they're supposed to, and some of those players won't be MVP-caliber seasons, but these odds provide an idea of just how challenging the AFC will be.

DOLPHINS IN THE MVP VOTING

Tagovailoa was part of the MVP conversation each of the past two seasons heading into December, but ultimately fell out of the picture.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill ended up sixth in the voting this past season, behind Jackson, runner-up Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy and Josh Allen.

The Dolphins have had one AP NFL MVP winner, Dan Marino in 1984.

Hill and Tagovailoa each got one fifth-place vote in 2022.

The previous Dolphins player to get any MVP votes was QB Chad Pennington, who tied for second  with Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner behind winner Peyton Manning.

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