What Wilkins' Market Might Look Like

Christian Wilkins will have competition this offseason from upper-echelon defensive linemen, who are free agents like the Dolphins' team captain

Christian Wilkins was the Miami Dolphins' foundational piece as the first draft pick of the rebuilding era that began in 2019.

Five seasons later he's turned into one of the franchise's best draft picks of this decade, a two-time captain who has done everything the right way in the organization, but the franchise and Wilkins appear to be at a pivotal point in their relationship.

Wilkins, who contributed 69 tackles, nine sacks, forced one fumble and recovered two last season, has established himself as one of the NFL's better defensive tackles, and wants to be compensated like it.

The Dolphins have some financial challenges this offseason, and this could impact the team's decision on how to handle Wilkins' impending free agent.

We broke that down in this earlier column, which was part one of addressing the Wilkins decision.

This piece addresses what Wilkins' compensation might look like based on deals his peers have recently received from other NFL teams.

NFL DTs got pace-setting deals in 2023

Wilkins has made it clear he wants to be paid like his peers, so what does that mean contractually?

Jeffery Simmons got a five-year, $104.7 million deal from the Tennessee Titans last offseason. He’ll make $19.7 million a year over the first three years of the deal, which is all I count for now because that’s when the guaranteed money expires. Simmons also has a chance to earn $1.25 million in per game roster bonuses ($24,500 per game).

While Quinnen Williams, who signed an extension shortly before the 2023 season started, might have landed the biggest deal (five-year, $105 million) for a defensive tackle from the New York Jets, he’ll earn $18.5 million a year for the first three seasons. That doesn’t include the $2.7 million he can earn in per game roster bonuses ($53,000 per game) the next three seasons.

Washington's Daron Payne got the best deal of all the recently extended defensive tackles. He's making $22.1 million a season over the first three years of the four-year, $90 million deal, which guaranteed him $60 million. He has the potential to earn another $1M for per game roster bonuses ($20K per game).

New York Giants nose tackle Dexter Lawrence’s five-years, $100.7 million deal will pay him $18.9 million a season for the first three years, with the potential to earn an extra $2 million in per game bonuses in 2024 and 2025 ($58,823 a game).

Ed Oliver took the most team-friendly deal last offseason, signing a five-year contract with the Buffalo Bills that is reportedly worth $78.7 million. He’s guaranteed $45 million, and will make $46 million over the first three years if he capitalizes on two $500,000 workout bonuses in 2024 and 2025. That averages out to $15.42 million a season during that three-year span.

Oliver can also make another $840,000 in those seasons from per game roster bonuses ($24,705 per game).

None of those salaries includes Donald’s three-year, $95 million contract, which he signed in 2022, which averages out to just under $32 million a season.

Wilkins will have competition this offseason

Jones, who earned a base salary of $19.5 million in 2023, will also help Wilkins by resetting the defensive tackle market this summer because he’s expected to become a free agent.

Javon Hargrave, a two-time Pro Bowl selection who will turn 31 this month, was the last free agent defensive tackle who switched teams after signing a pace-setting contract.

Last offseason Hargrave left the Philadelphia Eagles to join the San Francisco 49ers, who signed him to a four-year deal that could be worth $81 million. But only $40 million of that deal, which spans over the first two seasons, was guaranteed.

Hargrave earns $20 million a season for 2023 and 2024, and his 2025 salary of $20.7 million is an option year for the team, as is his 2026 salary of $22.5 million. 

If Wilkins hits the free agent market, he could pull in a contract in that $20 million a year salary range, but it all depends on what teams need defensive tackles, and intends to pay a premium price for them, and what his competition — Justin Madubuike, Leonard Williams and Da'Quan Jones — in free agency looks like.

We'll soon learn if the Dolphins are among those teams bidding big, and where Wilkins stacks up in the salary scale. But based on the stalemate and the demands, it's possible this could drag out for months, not weeks.

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