Dolphins-Chiefs Wild-Card Playoff Predictions Roundup
The Miami Dolphins will look for their first playoff win since 2000 when they face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday night.
The Dolphins will enter the game as 4.5-point underdogs, according to the SI Sportsbook.
Here's a roundup of national predictions on this game:
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CBS Sports
Analysis: "The Dolphins will go into Arrowhead a banged-up team, especially on defense. They will be down their top three pass rushers. That's a problem against Patrick Mahomes, even if the Chiefs offense has struggled this season by comparison to past Mahomes teams. They will do enough here as their defense limits a Miami offense that has had problems on the road. Chiefs take it."
Prediction: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 19
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Sports Illustrated
Greg Bishop Prediction: Dolphins
Andrew Brandt Prediction: Dolphins
Albert Breer Prediction: Chiefs
Mitch Goldich Prediction: Chiefs
Claire Kuwana Prediction: Dolphins
Gilbert Manzano Prediction: Chiefs
Conor Orr Prediction: Dolphins
John Pluym Prediction: Chiefs
Michael Rosenberg Prediction: Dolphins
Matt Verderame Prediction: Chiefs
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USA Today Sports
Safid Deen Prediction: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 17
Tyler Dragon Prediction: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 21
Victoria Hernandez Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 17
Jordan Mendoza Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 23
Lorenzo Reyes Prediction: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 14
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The Sporting News
Analysis: "This will be a popular upset pick because the Chiefs might be lured into a shootout with the Dolphins. Kansas City beat Miami 21-14 in Germany in Week 9, and the Dolphins were 4-4 S/U on the road. The Chiefs were effective in keeping Tyreek Hill, who had eight catches for 62 yards, away from making the big play. Patrick Mahomes II is 9-2 at home in the postseason, too, but the offense just has not clicked the same this season. Look for Mike McDaniel to be more aggressive early, even if Andy Reid continues to challenge that patience. Tua Tagovailoa gets his first career playoff victory and knocks out the defending Super Bowl champions."
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Chiefs 21
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The Ringer
Analysis: "There are plenty of reasons to fade the Dolphins here. They went 1-5 with a minus-91 point differential against playoff teams this season. Only the Giants and Commanders had worse point differentials against playoff teams. You have a warm-weather team built on speed going on the road and playing in frigid temperatures. As I write this, the evening forecast for Kansas City on Saturday night is minus-4 degrees with a real feel of minus-24! Add in the fact that the Dolphins are dealing with injuries at the worst possible time, and it’d be no surprise to see them get blown out here. Having said that, I’m feeling a bit contrarian in this spot. I just don’t trust the Chiefs offense to play a buttoned-up game. They’ve been too mistake-prone all season. And I think the Dolphins can run the ball. In the first meeting against Kansas City, they averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 21 attempts. The Chiefs defense was excellent against the pass but just 27th against the run in the regular season. I don’t know whether the Dolphins have enough to pull off the upset, but don’t forget that they hung tough against the Bills in the wild-card round last year, despite starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback. I think they will hang tough Saturday night, and we’ll get a classic game."
Prediction (against the spread): Dolphins +4.5 (line varies depending on outlet)
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ESPN
Analysis: "The Chiefs defended wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins about as well as they could have during their Week 9 meeting, but doing it a second time will be a challenge. Kansas City played a season-high 61% zone coverage in deference to Miami's speed and quickness. The Chiefs held Hill to 62 yards and made him fumble, returning it for the decisive touchdown. A similar performance would give the Chiefs a great chance for victory, but can they repeat it?"
Eric Moody Prediction: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 21
Seth Walder Prediction: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 23
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Pro Football Talk
Analysis: "The weather will be a problem for the Dolphins. The bigger problem is the Chiefs have far more playoff experience."
Mike Florio Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 17
Chris Simms Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20
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NFL.com
Ali Bhanpuri Prediction: Chiefs 22, Dolphins 17
Tom Blair Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 17
Brooke Cersosimo Prediction: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 23
Gennaro Filice Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 17
Dan Parr Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 18
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The 33rd Team
Analysis: "If you’ve paid any attention to the NFL this season, you know Patrick Mahomes’ offense has underwhelmed. Despite that, Mahomes is still the scariest player in the postseason, as his Kansas City Chiefs have played in each of the past five AFC Championship games. Their pedigree in big games is unrivaled. The Chiefs will be a tough out as long as Kansas City’s defense continues to play at a high level. Injuries have derailed the Miami Dolphins' season, particularly on defense, where the team could be without as many as seven starters. In particular, the Dolphins will be without their blue-chip edge rush duo, and cornerback Xavien Howard is currently doubtful That puts the pressure on Tua Tagovailoa’s offense, which is dealing with its own injury woes. Speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are on the injury report. Hill has played through an ankle sprain, but his production has taken a dip. Waddle has missed the past two games. With Miami's pair of speed demons, the team is dangerous even with its injury-ravaged defense. But if Hill and Waddle are limited, the Dolphins have a narrow path to victory in Kansas City. Frigid temperatures with mild winds are expected in Kansas City, which could negatively impact both team’s passing attacks. It’s also a major departure for a warm-weather team like the Dolphins."
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20
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The Athletic
Analysis: "Damn the wise guys. I had no intention of backing the Dolphins in Kansas City, but I also am allergic to traps. And an opening line of the Chiefs favored by 2.5 at home is definitely a trap — it’s up to 4.5 and climbing as everyone and their grandma knows the Dolphins lost by an average of 26 points at Buffalo, at Philadelphia and at Baltimore. The Chiefs have serious issues at receiver and tight end Travis Kelce has been slowed by injuries, old age and the paparazzi. And it’s not like they will be able to run the ball. The Dolphins rank sixth in the NFL in opponent yards per rush (3.8) and Miami has allowed the third-lowest percentage of rushes to go 5-plus yards (30.7 percent). Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be able to run. The Chiefs defense ranks 24th in yards after contact per rush (2.96). I think it’s a field goal game either way."
Prediction (against the spread): Dolphins +4.5
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SI Fan Nation All Dolphins
Analysis: "The weather likely will have some kind of impact on this game, but it's too simplistic to suggest that plays into the Chiefs' favor because they're at home and more familiar with colder temperatures. It's still going to come down to execution and very possibly to which team commits the fewest mistakes. The Dolphins really don't have a very good track record against playoff-caliber opposition and that goes back to last season, so there's reason to be skeptical about the ability to raise their game here. The bottom line is we'd expect a close game throughout with the outcome likely not decided until the end."
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 20
