Taking Stock of Tua Heading Into Year 3

It's time for Tua Tagovailoa to show the Miami Dolphins they have their long-term franchise quarterback

There have been a lot of questions and questionable decisions involving Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa since he got to the NFL, but now it's time to get the answer to the most important question of all — and it's the man himself who has to deliver it.

Can Tua Tagovailoa become a bona fide franchise quarterback or the Dolphins need to go looking for one next offseason?

It's that simple.

There are several reasons why the Dolphins need an answer before next offseason, as we examined in an earlier column, including financial considerations such as  a contract extension and deciding on the fifth-year option as well as the data that shows that if a quarterback doesn't have a big season within his first three years, chances are it's just not going to happen at any point.

DOLPHINS ARE ALL IN ON TUA

Tua becoming that franchise quarterback the Dolphins can feel comfortable moving forward with in 2023 and beyond obviously is the best-case scenario for an organization that's been looking for a long-term answer at the position since their Hall of Famer retired more than 20 years ago.

And Tua has been put in a position to succeed like never before — even though the organization did try in some ways before.

On the field, the Dolphins have given him maybe the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL in Tyreek Hill along with a Pro Bowl tackle in Terron Armstead and other speedy offensive teammates like Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Cedrick Wilson Jr., to name just three.

Off the field, the Dolphins have gone above and beyond — and some might suggest overboard — in pumping the tires of their quarterback in order to build up his confidence heading into this all-important 2022 season.

It started with the famous FaceTime phone call from head coach Mike McDaniel on the plane as he flew to South Florida after taking the job and it hasn't slowed since.

In fact, it's only ramped up, whether it be Tyreek Hill, McDaniel or teammates like Terron Armstead.

Former NFL GM Mike Lombardi, who's never been shy about expressing his lack of faith in Tagovailoa as a quarterback, called it a "propaganda" campaign.

Disagree with that term all you want, it's also a fact that McDaniel going out of his way to point out that Tagovailoa got the most points in the vote for season captains was over the top — as in, we've never heard a head coach indicate who got the most votes in 30-plus years of covering the NFL.

The point is the Dolphins want everyone to know they're fully behind Tua and they'll say it as often as they need to.

And there's really nothing wrong with that basic idea, up to a certain point, particularly after all the reports that have surfaced indicating that former head coach Brian Flores wasn't a big fan of the quarterback.

And the team's public interest in a potential trade for Deshaun Watson last year certainly wasn't helpful in building Tua's confidence, even after the organization had made several on-field moves to help him out, such as hiring Charlie Frye as QB coach, implementing an RPO-based offense that played to his strengths, and bringing in speedy wide receivers Jaylen Waddle through the draft and Will Fuller V via free agency.

While those moves didn't produce the desired results — it didn't help that Fuller played only two games before he was done — the Dolphins did try to help out Tua.

TUA'S FIRST TWO SEASONS

Tagovailoa was able to finish with a 7-5 record as a starter last season after going 6-3 the previous year, but his passer rating of 88.8 over those two seasons suggests more of a game manager than a difference-maker.

As an example, we already have heard a lot about Tua's 3-0 record against the New England Patriots and we'll continue to hear about it until Sept. 11, but the reality is the Dolphins rushed for 250 and 195 yards in two of those three wins and in the other it took Xavien Howard's fumble recovery inside the 10-yard line to save the day.

Tua's passer rating in those three games was 81.9, which isn't good even for a backup.

This isn't to say the won-loss record doesn't matter, but rather to point out it shouldn't be emphasized so much. Consider that Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl and Dan Marino didn't. Also consider that Jay Fiedler had a winning percentage as a starter of .673 (compared to Tua's .619) from 2000-03 for the Dolphins, but the team still traded a second-round pick for A.J. Feeley in 2004 with the idea he's take over as the starter.

Now, were circumstances ideal for Tagovailoa to star in his first two seasons? No, and no one ever has suggested that.

Beyond the lack of faith from the head coach, other factors that have been mentioned or come into play included his 2019 hip injury, the lack of personnel on offense around him, the offensive scheme, and a porous offensive line.

But this is where questions arise.

If Flores was so anti-Tua, why was there a quarterback change made after the sixth game of the 2020 season when Ryan Fitzpatrick was coming off back-to-back three-touchdown performances and the team had gotten back to .500 after blowout wins against the 49ers and the Jets?

And if the hip injury was a factor, as some have suggested, why in the hell would the Dolphins put him in the lineup before he was completely healthy so as to not jeopardize their precious commodity (because a fifth overall pick, and a quarterback at that, absolutely is a precious commodity)?

And if the scheme and the offensive personnel and the offensive line were so bad, how was it that Tua was able to put together four consecutive games last year with a passer rating of 104 or better? Was it all him? Or did he maybe get a bit more help than some might want to admit, including from coaches who designed a scheme perfectly suited to his strengths? What changed from those games to the last four games of the regular season when his passer rating was 75.4?

WHAT IS TUA'S BIGGEST TASK?

You can call what was mentioned above reasons for Tagovailoa's numbers not being better or you can call them excuses, but either way they're in the past.

Whichever side you fall, a 90.1 passer rating in Tagovailoa's third season (as he posted in 2021) won't cut it.

On the flip side, there's probably not a set number he needs to reach for the Dolphins to make a long-term commitment because it should be more about their confidence level moving into 2023 and beyond.

One clear parameter would be if coaches and teammates speak as glowingly about him as they have since the offseason. It's probably also imperative — or close to it — that he not miss any significant length of time after being sidelined by a finger injury in 2020 and by rib and thumb injuries in 2021 after he came in with durability concerns.

The Dolphins certainly have the potential to end their playoff drought after all the offseason moves they made, and if they do, it's likely Tua will have played a significant role in that. So would that be enough for the team to give him a contract extension?

That all has to play out, but understand that signing a quarterback to a second contract isn't cheap, as the Arizona Cardinals just found out with Kyler Murray and as the Baltimore Ravens are finding out right now as they try to lock up Lamar Jackson for the long term.

Given how long it's been since they had a bona fide franchise quarterback, the Dolphins would love to give Tagovailoa that kind of mega deal next offseason, but now it's up to him to earn it.

The Dolphins have made the right moves this offseason to help him, they have said the right things, but now — to borrow a phrase from another sport — the ball is in his court.