Is the Wilkins Decision a Slam Dunk?

The 2019 first-round pick is headed for free agency after playing the 2023 season on his fifth-year option

Because of their cap situation, the Miami Dolphins are going to be facing some very difficult decisions this offseason and one of them just might involve Christian Wilkins.

Yes, Christian Wilkins.

On the surface, it should be a slam dunk that the Dolphins need to re-sign their 2019 first-round pick after he had an impressive performance in the just-completed season playing on his fifth-year option, but it's just not that simple.

WHY THE DOLPHINS NEED TO RE-SIGN WILKINS

The reason the Dolphins absolutely should re-sign Wilkins is that he's become a foundational piece not only on defense but for the entire roster.

Wilkins has been a tone-setter for the defense almost from the time he arrived as the 13th overall selection out of Clemson in 2019 and after four seasons being a dominant run defender, he broke out as a pass rusher in 2023 with career highs in sacks (previous high was 4.5) with nine and quarterback hits with 23 (previous high was 10).

Alongside Zach Sieler, Wilkins gave the Dolphins tremendous production in the interior of the defensive line. Sieler and Wilkins were the only interior defensive line teammates to each finish with at least nine sacks and they helped Miami finish the season seventh in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and sixth in rushing yards allowed per play.

At 28, Wilkins also should have plenty of good football ahead of him.

WHY THE DOLPHINS MIGHT LET WILKINS WALK

So from a pure football standpoint, the Dolphins re-signing Wilkins wouldn't even be a discussion, and this is where the team's nasty cap situation comes into play.

It's not just that the Dolphins won't have a lot of money to spend this offseason. They have to shed contract commitments — and a lot of them — just to get to the salary cap limit by the start of the league year March 13.

The Dolphins are almost $52 million over the cap at this time, according to overthecap.com, which means some tough decisions are coming soon before too long.

Wilkins played on that fifth-year option after his representation and the Dolphins couldn't come to terms on a long-term extension last summer, which led to Wilkins staging a training camp "hold in."

The Dolphins had the upper hand in negotiations then because of the fifth-year option, and they also have a tool this year with the franchise tag.

The projected franchise tag number for defensive tackles for 2024 is $19.7 million, per overthecap.com, and it would give the Dolphins the right to match any offer sheet or get two first-round picks if they declined to match.

The problem there is that the deadline to apply the franchise tag is March 5 and that money goes on the books for 2024 the second the player signs the tag.

If the Dolphins do sign Wilkins to a long-term extension, the contract can be structured to carry a lower cap number in the first year than the $19.7 million the tag would carry, but that leads to the question of how high the team wants to go in its price to make that happen.

THE DEFENSIVE TACKLE MARKET

While he looked for a new deal last year, Wilkins watched a half-dozen other high-end defensive tackles around the league get new contracts and you can bet he was paying attention.

Five defensive tackles — Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Daron Payne, Dexter Lawrence and Javon Hargrave — got new deals in 2023 for an annual average between $21 million and $24 million and one could argue Wilkins was every bit as good as any of them, if not better, with Williams maybe being the one exception.

Wilkins' market value was estimated at $20.2 million annually by spotrac.com, but it would surprise no one if he asked for more than that.

If Wilkins was the only important Dolphins player headed for free agent, it would be a lot easier to dish out big money to keep him, but the team has several other key players on whom to make a decision.

GM Chris Grier discussed Wilkins' pending free agency in the annual season review media session with him and head coach Mike McDaniel.

"Christian and I actually had a really good conversation today," Grier said. "I was very happy for him. He bet on himself after a summer of negotiations where we made a couple offers and one we felt very good about, was fair, and he and his representation said as much, but we couldn’t close that gap at the end. So he bet on himself and it paid off for him. I’m very happy for him. So we’ll stay in communication and see where this ends up, but he earned the right to be a free agent. Again, I’m happy for him. We drafted him here, developed him here, and he’s the type of person we’re looking for. So we’ll see what happens.”

In an ideal world, what happens is that Wilkins signs a new long-term contract with the Dolphins. But this clearly is not an ideal offseason for the Dolphins because of their cap situation, so, — as Grier said — we'll see what happens.

What to do with Christian Wilkins is one of the Dolphins many complicated offseason decisions of 2024