2023 NFL Draft: NFC South Rookie Impact & Stat Projections

The NFC South looks to get back on track with a plethora of intriguing picks.

The QB Carousel is headquartered in the NFC South, where every organization will kick off Week 1 with a new starting quarterback. With the days of Drew Brees and Tom Brady in the rear view mirror, the South welcomes Carolina Panthers number one overall pick Bryce Young, along with former number one overall pick Baker Mayfield who is now steering the ship for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In addition, Atlanta Falcons third round pick from last year, Desmond Ridder will take over the reins, while four-time Pro Bowl signal-caller Derek Carr has joined the New Orleans Saints. So who holds the edge?

Well, that question isn’t quite as clear when sizing up the NFC South race, in comparison to some of the other lopsided divisions. Remember, the Buccaneers won this division with a losing record (8-9) in 2022. The Saints, with a stingy defense and name brand talent on offense such as Michal Thomas, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, would seem primed for the takeover. However, Thomas has battled injuries and has played like a shell of himself, Kamara could be facing a suspension and Carr will be making a transition to a new scheme, so it could take a while to work out the kinks down Canal Street.

Last season, interim head coach Steve Wilks, who took over for Matt Rhule, had the Panthers competitive down the stretch. Carolina was 6-6 on his watch and the six losses they lost by an average of six points, so the defense kept them in ball games and they know how to run the ball. Despite moving onto their third coach in the past year, this is a situation setup for success for Young, if new head coach Frank Reich can pull the right strings.

Not to be counted out are the Atlanta Falcons, who will ride the headless horseman in Ridder but have solidified the most lethal ground game in the league. Atlanta will throw a bevy of backs at opponents, including first round pick Bijan Robinson, multidimensional Cordarrelle Patterson and last year’s rookie 1,000-yard rusher Tyson Allgeier. Combined with big-bodied bruising pass targets such as wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, this is a roster built to compete. Or, possibly, the team to beat.

No clear cut answers seem to exist in May and that’s why they play the games. Let’s take a look at how each selection of the 2023 NFL Draft fits in with their new teams for the NFC North, plus projections on how they might perform in year one. For year-round coverage of the NFL Draft, be sure to subscribe to our All Access Football Newsletter.

PREVIOUS IMPACT PROJECTIONS: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | Up Next: NFC West

Player Rating Impact Scale: 10 – 9.5 = All Pro Impact | 9.4 – 8.9 = Pro Bowl Impact | 8.8 – 8.0 = Starter Impact | 7.9 – 7.0 = Rotational Impact | 6.9 – 6.0 = Backup Impact | 5.9 – Below = Practice Squad Impact

ATLANTA FALCONS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 75.5]

Rd1.No8. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas: In terms of sheer impact, Robinson is the greatest rookie of them all. It’s scary to think about how much better he makes the Falcons, who had the third best rushing offense in the league a year ago. Projection: 17 games started, 235 carries, 1,204 rushing yards, 32 catches, 409 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns. Impact Factor: 8.9

Rd2.No.38 Matthew Bergeron, OL, Syracuse: There has been high praise early on for Bergeron during OTAs, as he makes the switch from tackle to guard. Projection: Projection: 17 games started. Impact Factor: 8.1

Rd3.No.75 Zach Harrison, DE, Ohio State: With the signing of Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree on the opposite end, Harrison will likely serve as a situational pass-rusher. The Falcons could have explored other options here, considering they had so many needs. Projection: 13 games played, 16 tackles, one sacks, three and a half tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd4.No113 Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah: An aggressive ball-hawk, Phillips III is great at baiting and anticipating opposing quarterbacks but his size limits him to the slot. Projection: 15 games played, 10 starts, 22 tackles, four interceptions, one touchdown. Impact Factor: 7.7

Rd7.No.224 DeMarcco Hellams, SS, Alabama: The safety spot has been completely overhauled during the past two offseasons, mission accomplished. Hellams will begin as a special teams ace and backup. Projection: 10 games played, eight tackles. Impact Factor: 6.2

Rd7.No.225 Jovaughn Gwyn, C, South Carolina: Astute talent-evaluators were aware of Gwyn who was a top performer along the all-star trails. He will be utilized as an interior lineman. Projection: 17 games played, seven starts. Impact Factor: 7.6

CAROLINA PANTHERS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 75.8]

Rd1.No1. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama: The way the NFL evaluates quarterback prospects has been completely revolutionized and Young is just the latest exhibit. Many of the new-wave general managers believe talent trumps traits. Projection: 13 starts, 189 completions, 313 attempts, 2,321 passing yards, 334 rushing yards, 20 total touchdowns, 11 interceptions. Impact Factor: 8.4

Rd2.No.39 Panthers – Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss: Carolina has to keep swinging away at wideout. They hit on DJ Moore and dealt him off, in order to move up for Young. The selection of Terrace Marshall Jr. has yet to pay off, so in comes Mingo who is physical, fast and athletic. Projection: 17 games played, six starts, 36 catches, 538 receiving yards, three touchdowns. Impact Factor: 7.6

Rd3.No.80 Panthers – DJ Johnson, OLB, Oregon: The Panthers deemed Johnson worthy enough to trade up and secure his rights. He is known to be a stout run defender but the organization believes he may possess the characteristics that could translate as a pass-rusher. Projection: 13 games played, 26 tackles, two and a half sacks, four tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd4.No.114 Chandler Zavala, OG, North Carolina State: Never mind Panthers on the prowl, Zavala is a hog molly mauler. Projection: 17 games played, 12 starts. Impact Factor: 7.9

Rd5.No.145 Jammie Robinson, FS, Florida State: A hard-hitting safety, Robinson also possesses the coverage skills to contribute as a cover man in the slot. Projection: 15 games played, two starts, 38 tackles, three tackles for loss, two interceptions. Impact Factor: 7.2

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 75.8]

Rd1.No.29 Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson: A new-look defensive front will focus around Bresee and Cam Jordan, which could result in a lot of stunting. Projection: 15 starts, 28 tackles, three sacks, six tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 8.1

Rd2.No.40 Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame: Add the athleticism and quicks of Foskey to the defensive line equation and New Orleans can attack the quarterback with a lot of disguised fronts. Projection: 17 games, four starts, 44 tackles, four sacks, six and a half tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 7.7

Rd3.No.71 Kendre Miller, RB, TCU: Rumors continue to persist about a looming suspension surrounding Alvin Kamara as a result of his off-field incident. Despite the signing of Jamaal Williams, New Orleans wanted to ensure depth and Miller brings a similar multi-threat skill-set. Projection: 13 games played, four starts, 90 carries, 417 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards, four touchdowns. Impact Factor: 7.4

Rd.4No.103 Nick Saldiveri, OG, Old Dominion: The ho-um Saldiveri quietly goes about his business and should serve as a solid backup at both guard spots. Projection: 17 games played, two starts. Impact Factor: 7.3

Rd4.No.127 Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State: Look for the Fresno State flamethrower to be groomed behind newly minted David Carr. With plenty of games started at the collegiate level and numerous game-rally comebacks, Haener is a true gamer. Projection: backup. Impact Factor: 6.4

Rd5.No.146 Jordan Howden, FS, Minnesota: Blessed with 4.4-speed, Howden has been compared to former Saints safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Lions) for his ability to play both safety spots, in addition to nickelback. Projection: 14 games played, three starts, 26 tackles, two tackles for loss, one interception. Impact Factor: 7.1

Rd6.No.195 AT Perry, WR, Saints: Once upon a time, the Saints selected an overlooked 6-foot-4 wideout with their final selection in the draft named Marques Colston. Could lightning strike twice 17 years later? Projection: 15 games played, five starts, 40 catches, 525 receiving yards, three touchdowns. Impact Factor: 7.8

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 71.8

Rd1.No.19 Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh: The Bucs are banking on Kancey to become a cornerstone piece to build around on the first level of the defense. Known for his undersized label and underdog mentality, he does own a nice pass-rush repertoire. Projection: 17 games started, 46 tackles, six sacks, nine tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 8.6

Rd2.No.48 Cody Mauch, OG, North Dakota State: Playing next to Ryan Johnson is going to give opposing defensive tackles fits over the course of a game with the constant barrage of all-out aggression. Tampa Bay will look to pound the rock. Projection: 17 games played, 14 starts. Impact Factor: 8.0

Rd3.No.82 YaYa Diaby, DE, Louisville: Moves well for his size, Diaby has been asked to bulk up and will be primarily an outside backer in the base defense but head coach Todd Bowles hinted that he could also utilize him inside as well. Projection: 15 games played, 25 tackles. Impact Factor: 7.0

Rd5.No.153 Dennis SirVocea, LB, Pittsburgh: Plays with incredibly high alert instincts, covers the field well laterally and will be asked to contribute on special teams. Projection: 13 games played, two starts, 36 tackles, two sacks, four tackles for loss, one interception. Impact Factor: 7.6

Rd5.No.171 Payne Durham, TE, Purdue: Should fit in nicely with his inline blocking ability and pass-catching prowess. While his ceiling is limited, he brings the hard hat mentality that the Buccaneers have sought from the position. Projection: 17 games played, five starts, 38 catches, 472 receiving yards, two touchdowns. Impact Factor: 7.5

Rd6.No.181 Josh Hayes, DB, Kansas State: The physical Hayes who proudly proclaims his fame as running into trees as a youngster to help build up his toughness will compete as a nickelback. Projection: special teams. Impact Factor: 6.1

Rd6.N0.191 Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska: A yards after catch player with speed, Palmer possesses some of the largest hands of any wideout in the draft and could see some meaningful time if the injury bug bites once again. Projection: 12 games played, four starts, 28 catches, 374 receiving yards, one touchdown. Impact Factor: 6.7

Rd6.No.196 Jose Ramirez, DE, Eastern Michigan: A raw pass-rusher who will need to scrape and claw his way into the defensive line rotation, Ramirez has upside that could take some time to develop. Projection: practice squad. Impact Factor: 6.0

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