Did Falcons 'Overpay' Jessie Bates III? NFL Free Agency Grades

The Atlanta Falcons signed Jessie Bates III to a four-year $64 million deal. Is he worth the investment?

The Atlanta Falcons didn't wait long to make a splash this spring by signing Jessie Bates III, the top safety in free agency, to a four-year $64 million deal with $36 million guaranteed. Is he worth the contract Atlanta gave him?

Let's first understand the Falcons' in-house view here: Bates is a play-maker and a difference-maker. He's already taken on a leadership role in Atlanta after having established himself as a star-quality performer for one of the NFL's best teams in the Bengals.

So what is the debate here? Bleacher Report graded the biggest moves of the offseason and gave the Falcons a C+ for signing Bates, citing positional value and where they are as a team. 

"Sometimes, rebuilding teams have to overpay to improve their rosters," Bleacher Report writes. "That's what the Falcons did with Bates."

While Bleacher Report may not have loved the value of Bates' contract, they do like how he fits in the Falcons defense under first-year coordinator Ryan Nielsen, And yes, BR has that part right.

Bates played his first five seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals and made Second-Team All-Pro in 2020. He played on the franchise tag in 2022 and tallied a career-high four interceptions. 

"Time and again we have seen bad teams go wild spending money in free agency in an effort to reverse their fortunes," Bleacher Report wrote when Bates signed with Atlanta on March 13. "More often than not, it just doesn't work. Especially when huge money is spent at non-premium positions."

There is a great debate raging now about "paying premium positions" centering on running backs. Indeed, Atlanta's own Bijan Robinson fits into the discussion, too, as the Falcons "spent" draft capital to take him at No. 8 overall in the recent NFL Draft.

Too high for Bijan? Or is he special? Too much for Bates? Or is he special as well?

Before last season, Bates had at least 100 tackles in his first three seasons. He also had three interceptions in each of the first three seasons of his career. Atlanta was 24th in the league with 10 interceptions and 31st in sacks with 21. They were also 23rd in points allowed per game with 22.7. That seems like a match to us.

Deciding if a team overpaid for a player before he ever steps on the field is part of the demand and point of a story like this. But as training camp opens, we're betting that a Falcons defense that desperately needed a makeover might just get that from Bates. If he lives up to expectations - not the dollars, but to his own resume - and leads Atlanta's defense to a playoff chase, what he's getting paid will be the last thing on people's minds. 

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