Inside the 'Hard Knocks' Effect that Featured Teams Face

Examining the regular season win-loss records for participants of the HBO docuseries

The New York Jets will report to training camp on July 19, but will the "Hard Knocks" production crew be there when the players arrive?

If head coach Robert Saleh gets his way, then it'll be a quiet report day in Florham Park.

"I know there’s several teams that would love for Hard Knocks to be in their building, but we’re just not one of them," said Saleh during OTAs.

Conventional wisdom, however, suggests that Gang Green will be the featured team in HBO's annual summertime docuseries whether Saleh likes it or not. 

It's highly unlikely that the NFL passes up the chance to showcase Aaron Rodgers on a team that resides in a mega media market. Rodgers's presence alone should make for a ratings bonanza.

So, the Jets will almost certainly be forced to deal with the "distractions" and magnified hype that come with being characters on a widely-watched television show, but will any of it have a negative effect on the franchise?

There is no past evidence to indicate that a "Hard Knocks" appearance will sink the season for Saleh's team. If anything, it may result in a springboard effect like it did for Gang Green in 2010. 

After Rex Ryan and Co. captured the hearts of the HBO audience that summer, the Jets went on to post an 11-5 regular season record — a two-win improvement from the prior year — and advance to the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row. 

Jets' fans have seen the positive power of "Hard Knocks" firsthand, but were they an outlier in 2010? With the HBO series dating back to 2001, there have been numerous examples of success after hosting "Hard Knocks."

For starters, look at the Detroit Lions of last year. 

With the docuseries seemingly serving as a team building experience, Dan Campbell's squad carried the momentum over into the regular season. Although they came up short, the Lions made a playoff push while improving their win total by six games from the 3-13-1 record they posted in 2021.

The Dallas Cowboys were the stars of "Hard Knocks" during the 2021 NFL Preseason and that team proceeded to win 12 of 17 regular season games.

The 2020 pandemic-affected season provided viewers with a double feature as both the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers made way for the camera crews. The Rams finished the season at 10-6 while the Chargers' 7-9 record led to head coach Anthony Lynn being fired. Despite the Chargers "underperforming" in 2020, the team still improved its record by two games from 2019.

The last six "Hard Knocks" participants all subsequently experienced win total improvements in the regular season. 

Since 2009, there have been 11 "Hard Knocks" teams who saw their win total increase from the prior season. Only two teams suffered a drop-off and one team posted the same record over that span.

While Saleh prefers to forego the "distractions" ahead of the team's pressurized 2023 season, the data says the third-year head coach's concern is overexaggerated.

Rex Ryan's snack rant might be the funniest moment in Hard Knocks history. 🤣#HardKnocks: The @DallasCowboys | Premieres August 10 on @hbomax pic.twitter.com/dsrQLg0Nyo

— NFL (@NFL) July 7, 2021

How 'Hard Knocks' Participants Fare in Regular Season

Year: Team Name (Record) 

2022: Detroit Lions (9-8) 📈

2021: Dallas Cowboys (12-5) 📈

2020: Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) 📈

2020: Los Angeles Rams (10-6) 📈

2019: Oakland Raiders (7-9) 📈

2018: Cleveland Browns (7-8-1) 📈

2017: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) 📉 

2016: Los Angeles Rams (4-12) 📉 

2015: Houston Texans (9-7) ↔️ 

2014: Atlanta Falcons (6-10) 📈 

2013: Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) 📈 

2012: Miami Dolphins (7-9) 📈 

2010: New York Jets (11-5) 📈 

2009: Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) 📈 

2008: Dallas Cowboys (9-7) 📉 

2007: Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) 📉 

2002: Dallas Cowboys (5-11) ↔️ 

2001: Baltimore Ravens (10-6) 📉

KEY:

📈 — Team's record improved from prior season

📉 — Team's record declined from prior season

READ MORE: 

Jets May Be Strongest Contender for HBO's 'Hard Knocks'

Are Jets Resisting a 'Hard Knocks' Request?

Aaron Rodgers 'Could Define 2023 NFL Season'

Jets Among NFL Teams 'Facing Greatest Burden of Expectation

NFL Unveils Jets' Training Camp Start Date

Life After Hard Knocks: How Do NFL Teams Fare the Following Season? (from 2018)