Can Packers Find Answers vs. Worst Defense in NFL History?

Halfway through the season, the Green Bay Packers’ offense still hasn’t shown signs of progress. Can they shake loose on Sunday at the Detroit Lions?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Detroit Lions have scored 143 points in four home games. The Green Bay Packers have scored 145 points, total.

The Philadelphia Eagles, the lone undefeated team in the NFL, have scored 17 touchdowns during the second quarters of their games. The Packers have scored 17 touchdowns all season.

The Packers used to be the team with those unstoppable offenses. Aaron Rodgers was the baddest man in the NFL. With an offensive line that provided Secret Service-worthy protection and with a star-studded group of perimeter weapons, the Packers scored more than 27 points a total of 77 times from 2011 through 2021, third-most in the league. That includes a league-leading 12 games in 2020.

Entering Sunday’s game at the Lions, they haven’t scored more than 27 points in a single game this season. That eight-game streak is the longest of Rodgers’ career. The current four-game streak of not topping 21 points is the longest of the Rodgers era. Even with the likes of Brett Hundley, Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien, the Packers managed to score more than they are now.

Green Bay’s offense has been plagued by three main things.

Shuffled Offensive Line

The best offensives lines are the ones that play together and practice together. The Packers haven’t had that. Due to injuries and performance, Green Bay has lined up with five different line combinations. From Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay through Week 5 vs. the Jets, the Packers lined up with the same quartet for four consecutive games, then chose to blow it up.

After a dismal performance vs. the Jets, the Packers worked all week with a revamped line of David Bakhtiari at left tackle, Elgton Jenkins at left guard, Josh Myers at center, Jon Runyan at right guard and Yosh Nijman at right tackle. Jenkins hadn’t played left guard since 2020, Nijman hadn’t played right tackle since college and Runyan had never played right guard in his life. That group still hasn’t played in a game.

“We’ve got to get our guys healthy,” Rodgers said. “When we have our starting five out there out front, I feel like we have the guys in place to be able to block it up and take some shots downfield. If we don’t, we’ve got to adjust some things and run the ball a little more effectively.”

No Replacing Davante Adams

The Packers traded Davante Adams and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling and tried to replace them with Sammy Watkins, a veteran with a long injury history, and three draft picks. Shockingly, it hasn’t worked.

Watkins spent four weeks on injured reserve and has been a nonfactor in three of his four games. Watson, whom the Packers traded two second-round picks to Minnesota to acquire, dropped a 75-yard touchdown pass on his first career snap and has played only 20.0 percent of the snaps due to hamstring injuries and a concussion.

When healthy, Watson has flashed explosive ability but hasn’t been on the field enough to put it to use. Fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs has had moments of excellence and moments of rookie inconsistency. Seventh-round pick Romeo Doubs spent six weeks buried on the inactives list before being forced to play.

“I nicknamed him ‘Capt. Casual’ in training camp as a way to maybe encourage him to start practicing with a little different type of tempo, practicing like a pro,” Rodgers said of Toure. “I don’t think he really appreciated that nickname. I mean, who would? But it’s gone from a nickname that was legitimate to more of a joke now because his practice habits have really picked up and I’ve been impressed with him.”

Same as it’s been since the draft, the offense will go as far as the rookies are able to take it.

Added Together …

When you combine an unreliable offensive line and unreliable receiver corps you get, surprisingly enough, an unreliable offense.

The passing game has evolved into a dink-and-dunk outfit. Rodgers averages 4.3 air yards per completion, 1.0 yards shorter than his MVP season of 2021 and 1.2 yards shorter than his MVP season of 2020.

Something else that jumps out is third down. The Packers are 22nd with a 37.4 percent conversion rate. They were ninth in 2021 and second in 2020. The Packers have given up 10 sacks on third down in 2022 compared to an average of 10.5 the last two seasons. In 2020, Rodgers had a 113.4 passer rating with 12 touchdowns on third down. In 2022, he has an 81.2 passer rating with two touchdowns.

Those problems start before third down, though. Last season, the Packers ranked second with 6.12 yards per first-down play. This year, they’re 22nd with 5.27 yards per first-down play. Third-and-long has been Public Enemy No. 1. They’re 24th on third-and-7 plus with a conversion rate of only 20.0 percent.

Could Detroit’s defense be the tonic? The Lions are on pace to allow the most points in NFL history. They are last in total defense, yards allowed per passing play and opponent passer rating. Ranking 27th on first down with 6.19 yards allowed per play, they are 32nd on third down with a 50.6 percent conversion rate.

“I think it’s just the consistency as the game progresses,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “You can see there’s certain breakdowns at points. You get down to the red zone, boom, penalty. You get down to the 30-yard line, M.A. When you have more veteran guys, those mistakes don’t happen as often.”

Will the Packers finally shake loose this week against a terrible defense? It had better considering how dominant the Lions’ offense has been at Ford Field.

“We’ve got to hopefully get 9 (Watson) and 13 (Allen Lazard) back this week, Cobby in a couple more weeks,” Rodgers said. “We’re hopeful that both Elgton and Dave will be able to go and there’s no surprises on gameday. I think that squad, when you put that together, I think we can win some football games with those guys. That’s what we’re all hoping for, is just to get a little bit healthier and then everybody play a little bit better.”

Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6)

Easy to see how the #Packers could lose on Sunday. The Detroit offense (at home) is crazy good. Can GB take advantage of what’s on pace to be the worst defense… ever?https://t.co/ZsZIXFTXMc

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 5, 2022

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