Vegas Posts Interesting Packers-Patriots Over/Under

The Green Bay Packers are heavy favorites to beat the New England Patriots on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 9.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots for Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field. That’s the biggest spread of the NFL Week 4 games at SI Sportsbook.

The over/under at SI Sportsbook is 40 points. The over/under at FanDuel Sportsbook is just 39.5. That’s an interesting number.

According to Stathead, this will be the fifth game of the Aaron Rodgers era in which the over/under was less than 40 points. Three of them came in 2017, when Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone. The other game? Rodgers’ starting debut vs. the Minnesota Vikings in 2008. That was 37.5 points. Rodgers won the game – and the over for the bettors – 24-19.

On the spread, 66 percent of the money and 60 percent of the bets at FanDuel. On the over/under, 54 percent of the money and 61 percent of the bets are on the under.

The spread – and the betting on the spread – stems in large part from the starting quarterbacks. It’s Rodgers vs. backup Brian Hoyer. At SI Sportsbook, the over/unders for passing yards are 227.5 for Rodgers and 189.5 for Hoyer. Receiver Romeo Doubs has the highest over/under with 44.5 receiving yards.

With improvements on defense and special teams, the Packers are better equipped to win a low-scoring game than perhaps past seasons. They earned a 144-yard edge in field position last week vs. Tampa Bay. According to SportsRadar, the Packers have a 6.9-yard advantage in average starting field position. That’s No. 1 in the NFL.

“They lead the league in field position. Defensively, they aren’t on the field more than any other team. I think that’s two things,” Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. “One, not turning the ball over on offense. And two, having good coverage in the kicking game. They’ve got three very explosive coverage players, and a good core, and good specialists, and a good returner, and a good coach. So they’ve put together a good core group. So they’re better probably than when we looked at them last year in the offseason. I think they’ve definitely upgraded that.”

Over the last two decades, the Patriots have been a bigger underdog only once. For Week 4 of the 2020 season, the Patriots were 11-point underdogs against the Chiefs. Kansas City won and covered, 26-10.

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