One Big Packers at Buccaneers Preview

An analytics-based view of the Packers, Pettine's history vs. Brady, takeaways and much more in a last look at Sunday's showdown.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Aaron Rodgers has driven the Green Bay Packers to a 4-0 record with a sublime stretch of play not seen since his running of the table in 2016.

The eyeballs, and the analytics, are in unison.

“He’s been more accurate,” said Aaron Schatz, the head of Football Outsiders and part of the team at EdjSports.com. “He always made the splash plays. He always made the incredible scramble-drill plays, where he would find a guy downfield and just drop it in the bucket. You’d scratch your head, like it was impossible that anybody could do that. What he’s done better is the regular stuff.”

What is EdjSports? It bills itself as “a skilled group of physicists, mathematicians, engineers, programmers, world-class game theorists, product developers and sports executives focused on the bottom line – winning.” Its roots date to 2001, when Indiana University astrophysicist Chuck Bower and world backgammon champion Frank Frigo recognized that neural net programs had surpassed the best humans in skilled board games.

Together, they set their sights on creating a computer simulation model to help NFL coaches navigate critical risk/reward scenarios. That model was called Zeus, and it assesses the win probability of customized opponents via those risk-management decisions. In 2013, EdjSports was born.

Those risk-management decisions show up in EdjSports’ “game-winning chance” metric. GWC is a team’s win probability at any point in the game. It is generated from the proprietary EdjFootball simulation model, which is rooted in 20-plus years of NFL play-by-play data and popular analytics tools such as DVOA, but customizes it to each team’s strengths and weaknesses. That’s critical, because a fourth-and-1 at midfield for Green Bay’s offense against Tampa Bay’s defense would have a different chance for success compared to a fourth-and-1 against Atlanta’s defense.

“We can put in any unique game state into the simulation model and simulate that game into conclusion to get an idea of what the win probably is,” Frigo said. “This is a model we’ve developed for more of a decade. It’s been rigorously calibrated and tested against a lot of empirical data. We know it’s very good. What it does is it gives us the ability to look at play decisions and see how much win probability was at stake when a coach chooses a punt vs. a field goal, for instance. What was the gain vs. the risk? At those forks in the road, how much did it affect win probability?”

According to Frigo, an average NFL team might give up somewhere between three-quarters of a game and a game in expected value based on those risk-management decisions. That’s obviously a big deal over a 16-game season. While Rodgers’ play has obviously been critical, so has LaFleur’s coaching. His in-game coaching decisions have him in the top five in lowest error rate, Frigo said.

Coaching decisions are important but nothing works without execution from the players. That starts with Rodgers and his vastly improved accuracy. Using data that includes distance of throw and receiver-vs.-defensive back separation, Rodgers has been much sharper than last year. He’s completed 70.5 percent of his passes this season, up significantly from 62.0 percent in 2019 and 62.3 percent in 2018.

“His completion percentage over expectation last year was basically zero,” Schatz said. “This year, his completion percentage over expectation is about 7 percent. He’s hitting stuff with much more accuracy.”

“He’s just playing better, there’s no question,” Schatz added. “I know he wants to act like he’s always been this good but he hasn’t been the last couple years, but he is now.”

In EdjSports.com’s power rankings, the Packers are No. 8 despite being among the last undefeated teams. That’s because of an inconsistent defense. According to Schatz, Green Bay’s defense is No. 2 in the NFL when tied or losing. When leading by more than a touchdown, it ranks No. 27.

The retort here is obvious – Green Bay has taken its foot off the gas when comfortably ahead – but Schatz said that argument doesn’t hold any water.

“Now, you may write that off as, ‘Well, they’re playing prevent defense. What does it matter if they’re letting teams move the ball?’” Schatz said. “But our research shows that it’s important in figuring out how good their defense is in the long run.”

Sunday’s opponent, the Tampa Ba Buccaneers, are No. 3 despite being 3-2. Its rankings are meant to be “predictive of the future and not descriptive of the past.” The Bucs’ defensive power is the key.

“We need to see more of Rodgers like this to believe that he’s really going to be this and not what he was the last four or five years,” Schatz said. “Some of it is also that defense, the fact that they’ve given up a lot of points and yards, even if it is with a lead.”

Pettine vs. Brady

Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine and Bucs quarterback Tom Brady have a long history.

From 2009 through 2012, Pettine was the New York Jets’ defensive coordinator. In 2013, Pettine took over the Buffalo Bills’ defense. During those five seasons, Pettine squared off against Brady 11 times. Then, in his first season with Green Bay in 2018, Pettine got another shot against Brady.

For the most part, Brady has won those matchups. That’s hardly a knock on Pettine. Brady didn’t win six Super Bowl rings by being routinely outwitted by defensive coordinators.

Brady is 9-3 in those 12 games. Pettine won three of the first five, with splits in the 2009 and 2010 regular seasons and the Jets’ stunning upset over MVP Brady in the 2010 playoffs. Brady, however, walked off the field victorious in each of the last seven games. Sometimes, Pettine won the battle but not the war. In 2013, Brady had passer ratings of 76.4 and 68.4 but won the game, anyway. Other times, Brady won the battle and the war. Such was the case in 2018. New England beat the Packers 31-17 as Brady went 22-of-33 for 294 yards and one touchdown.

All told, Brady has thrown 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions in the 12 games against Pettine’s defenses, including 13 touchdowns vs. two picks during the seven-game winning streak.

“When he was in New England, their system was constantly evolving and they were just so well-prepared for what you were doing,” Pettine said this week. “They would find the mismatch and take advantage of it. They could diagnose what you were in, he could figure it out and know right where to go with the ball. He didn’t make a lot of mistakes and he got the ball out quick, so it was frustrating to play against him. 

“If you don’t have a good plan and if you don’t do a good job disguising and you go into a game with just a handful of calls and hope to out-execute him, you’re going to be in for a long day. You’ve heard the cliche before, but he’s playing chess while other people are playing checkers.”

Turning Over New Leaf

On the strength of 17 interceptions, the Packers finished seventh in the NFL with 25 takeaways last season. This year, they’ve forced only three – just one more than the league minimum. Green Bay has forced only three fumbles this season, with Za’Darius Smith’s recovery at New Orleans being the only takeaway. And it’s intercepted only two passes. It’s not a matter of dropped interceptions, either. It’s broken up a league-worst 12 passes.

The early bye skews those things, but only by a bit. On a per-game basis, Green Bay is 10th from the bottom in forced fumbles and fifth from last in breakups per game.

Pettine believes those numbers will turn in Green Bay’s direction.

“I’m confident just because of the way we’ve been attacking the football,” he said. “I think we’re much improved from a year ago, and that was a big point of emphasis for us. Just the whole ball awareness, the second guy in punching at it, tackling at the level of the football. We’ve had some really good opportunities, and we just stay on the guys, ‘Hey, stay on it. Just keep doing it.’ We’ve developed some really good habits, and that’ll come. But it’s certainly not for the lack of effort on those guys. They’re certainly much more aware of the ball and where it is and when to take a chance to go ahead and attack it.

“From an interception standpoint, obviously, we’ve dropped a few. Our easy rule is, ‘Always catch the ones that they throw to us.’ But when you get an opportunity, the ball is in the air, whetherr it’s tipped, it’s overthrown, whatever it is, we’ve definitely got to take advantage of those. So, yeah, it is a little frustrating that we’ve only had three. We’ve got to get that going and start taking the ball away.”

Dominant Run Defense

Running against Tampa Bay’s defense has been like running through a block of granite.

The Buccaneers are allowing 2.68 yards per carry. That’s almost two-thirds of a yard better than anyone else in the NFL. Their “worst” game of run defense came in Week 2 against Christian McCaffrey and Carolina, when the Panthers rushed for 87 yards and 3.6 yards per attempt. The last three games, the Bucs have allowed 42, 46 and 35 rushing yards, and they’ve held their foes to 3.0 yards or less per carry in four of five games.

If Tampa Bay holds Green Bay to less than 50 rushing yards, it would mark the longest streak of such games in the NFL since 2016. The Packers were responsible for that streak.

Dating to last season, the Buccaneers have held 11 consecutive opponents to less than 100 rushing yards. If they do it again, it would be the NFL’s longest streak since 2006.

Then again, Green Bay’s rushing attack is fifth with 150.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.

“Week in and week out, I don’t change my mind-set,” running back Aaron Jones said. “I’m going to try to run the ball. I mean, I know they have a great rush defense, and I think they’ve only given up 54 yards a game, or something like that. So, that’s kudos to those guys. They fly around, but you don’t back down from competition. I just look forward to the matchup and playing against a really good defense.”

Big Matchup

Last season, Tampa Bay outside linebacker Shaq Barrett led the NFL and set a franchise record with 19.5 sacks. Plus, he added six forced fumbles to put himself on the map as one of the league’s most feared defenders. He’s got three sacks to start this season.

“He’s a relentless player,” offensive line coach Adam Stenavich said. “You watch his film and he plays hard on every single snap. He’s a problem in the run game and pass rushing, but it’s just a testament to him. He just comes off the ball and he’s got a really natural feel for pass rush. Him and (fellow outside linebacker) Jason Pierre-Paul do a really good job. They’re very smooth, they’re very smart players, so we just have to make sure we do a good job studying them, try and stay one step ahead.”

Almost every one of Barrett’s rushes this season has come from the defense’s left side or against the offensive right tackle. That means it will be up to Billy Turner to keep Barrett away from Rodgers.

Last season as the team’s starting right guard, Turner allowed six sacks and 45 total pressures, which put him near the bottom of PFF’s pass-protecting metric. In his two starts this season at right tackle, he’s allowed no sacks and three total pressures.

“Coaching Billy the last two years, I thought his best position was tackle,” Stenavich said. “So, when the opportunity came up, I thought that this would be the best spot for him.”

Stats That Aren’t for Losers

- With at least two touchdown passes and zero interceptions on Sunday, Rodgers would become the first player in NFL history with at least two touchdown passes and zero interceptions in each of his team’s first five games of a season. With at least three touchdown passes and zero interceptions, Rodgers would tie Cleveland’s Milt Plum (16 touchdown passes before throwing his first interception in 1960) for the fourth-most touchdown passes by a player to begin a season before his first interception in NFL history. Denver’s Peyton Manning had a record 20 touchdowns before his first pick in 2013.

- With a touchdown reception against Green Bay, Bucs receiver Mike Evans would become the fourth player with at least one touchdown reception in each of his team’s first six games of a season since 1970. T.J. Houshmandzadeh opened the 2007 season with a touchdown in eight consecutive games.

- The Packers have lost in the game after the bye each of the last three seasons.

- LaFleur is 17-3 in his brief NFL coaching career. That’s tied with the legendary Paul Brown, among others, for the second-most wins in the first 20 games of a coaching career. George Seifert went 18-2 with the 49ers in 1989 and 1990.

- Tampa Bay has outscored its foes 48-14 in the first quarter. That plus-34 differential is tops in the NFL.

The Last Word

Goes to Pettine, on the impact of motion on a defense:

“We all see players that, when they sit in the meeting room and they see it, you give them a call and say, ‘Hey, how would you play this?’ or ‘What’s your role here?’ or ‘What would the check be?’ and they can figure it out pretty quick. But then you get them out on the field and it’s the heat of battle and, all the sudden, it’s late motion. You know, it’s not like in the meeting rooms. We call those guys, ‘Don’t be first-team all-air conditioning.’ Make sure you can process it out on the field, as well. Motion is a real big test to that. Especially the fly motion has become a real trend in the league lately. It’s forced defenses to take a deep dive into it and make sure that we have a good understanding of it and not get fooled by it. I know that late motion, a lot of times it’s a distraction. It wants to pull your eyes away. It’s a test of your eye discipline, making sure you’re focused on what you’re supposed to be focused on.”

Countdown to Kickoff

Rodgers vs. Brady: Not-so-classic trilogy

Beating Blitz: That will be critical

Protecting Rodgers: The fine line

X-Factors: Two key players

Thermometer: Weather could be huge factor

Reasons to Worry: Three trouble spots

Injury Report: King “game-time” decision

Longest Yard: Trouble from the 1

Five Keys: Critical factors