Packer Central

Do Packers Boom or Bust in First Round?

The answer to this question posed by Pro Football Focus might surprise you.

Bill Huber

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GREEN BAY, Wis. – How would you rate the Green Bay Packers’ recent history of first-round picks?

First-class flops or first-rate fabulous?

The answer might surprise you.

Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus reviewed the first-round picks for every team from 2015 through 2022. The Packers rank among the best five teams over the past eight years.

To review, here are those eight years of first-rounders:

2022: LB Quay Walker, DI Devonte Wyatt

2021: CB Eric Stokes

2020: QB Jordan Love

2019: OLB Rashan Gary, S Darnell Savage

2018: CB Jaire Alexander

2016: DT Kenny Clark

2015: CB Damarious Randall

General manager Brian Gutekunst’s first draft was 2018. Alexander was a home run, a premier player at a premier position. And Gutekunst’s vision with Gary was right on the money, as he’s developed into one of the top pass rushers in the NFL.

The jury’s out on a few other picks, though, which could force Monson to re-evaluate his findings 12 months from now.

Savage made the All-Rookie team and had eight interceptions and 26 passes defensed during his first three seasons. Last year, he lost his starting position and wound up with only one interception and five passes defensed. Still, his 31 passes defensed are 11 more than any safety drafted in 2019. Tackling has been a career-long issue.

Stokes had an All-Rookie-caliber season in 2021, when Sports Info Solutions charged him with a 46.2 percent completion rate and 5.3 yards per target, figures that ranked sixth and eighth, respectively, among starting cornerbacks. In 2022, before a season-ending injury, Stokes allowed a 73.9 percent catch rate and 10.8 yards per target. Coach Matt LaFleur said the team would open the offseason with Alexander and Rasul Douglas as the corners and with Keisean Nixon in the slot.

Can last year’s first-rounders take that cliched second-year jump? Walker earned All-Rookie honors but his debut season was tarnished by two ejections. With the free-agent departures of Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry, Wyatt will have to emerge as a quality starter after delivering little impact as a rookie.

And then, of course, there’s Love, who faces the monumental challenge of replacing legendary Aaron Rodgers.

“If Jordan Love is able to step into the void,” Monson wrote, “the Packers will have nailed this run of first-rounders.”

Can Love handle all the pressure – not just the physical pressure brought by an attacking defense but the mental pressure of the expectations and the financial pressure of playing for a new contract?

“I don’t think you can just put it all on his plate right away, right?” Gutekunst said at the Scouting Combine. “That’s one thing I talked to him a little bit about after the season was just mentally having a plan for those things that he hasn’t had to have a plan for the last few years, because he’s got to think about those things, handling all the requests and the pressure and the different things that are going to come his way. We’ve seen a lot of growth through him on the field and that part of it, what you’re speaking to, is very important, as well.”

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.

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