Five Reasons To Not Believe In 2023 Packers

The Green Bay Packers are coming off an 8-9 season. With a new starting quarterback, young receivers and tight ends, and a history of bad run defense, it could be a challenging year.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers enter a season with an unclear estimation for how they’ll fare in 2023.

The Packers have long been on the short list of Super Bowl contenders with Aaron Rodgers under center. With Rodgers being sent to the New York Jets, that means the Packers no longer have the certainty and stability an MVP quarterback can provide.

Some pundits think the Packers are going to be fine, and the Packers could find their way back into the postseason with Jordan Love at the helm. Others think they could be on the outside looking in, or as low as one of the worst teams in the NFL.

If they were to fall into the latter category, here are five reasons why they could struggle.

Inexperienced Weapons

When Aaron Rodgers took over for Brett Favre in 2008, he stepped in with weapons that included Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones. Jordy Nelson was drafted that offseason, and those two would form a symbiotic relationship that tormented defenses for the next decade.

Jordan Love doesn’t have that. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are the only pass catchers on the roster who played significant snaps a season ago.

The Packers have made the investment. Watson required a significant trade to draft early in the second round. Jayden Reed was a top-50 pick. They’ve invested time and coaching in Romeo Doubs. Samori Toure was brought up consistently by the coaching staff this offseason.

Jayden Reed (Photo by Wm Glasheen/USA Today Sports)

Passes aren’t caught on paper and press clippings; they’re made on the field.

When Rodgers needed a big play his first season, the team had Jennings or Driver to lean on.

Even Donald Lee was a veteran at tight end for Rodgers’ first season.

It’s possible the top two tight ends on the depth chart will be players they drafted this year. Tight end is a notoriously difficult position for rookies to learn. Will Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft be able to adapt immediately? They may not have a choice.

There will be growing pains. The Packers struggled through those last season with a four-time MVP at quarterback.

With a quarterback destined to go through growing pains of his own, the learning curve could be steep in 2023.

Who Stops the Run?

This feels like a question you could ask for the last decade about the Packers’ defense. Kenny Clark has talked about run defense being a mentality and mindset.

Former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine once famously said that you’d fly to Miami faster than you’d drive. Maybe it’s as simple as changing the mindset of the defense, because they didn’t change much in terms of personnel.

A team that finished in the bottom third of the NFL stopping the run didn’t add any top-100 picks or free agents along the defensive line.

Miles Sanders and the Eagles ran over the Packers in 2022. (Photo by USA Today Sports Images)

The defensive linemen they did add, Day 3 draft picks Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks, have the reputation as pass rushers more than run stuffers.

Maybe Devonte Wyatt playing more in his second season and TJ Slaton getting more snaps in his third season, as opposed to leaning on veterans Jarran Reed or Dean Lowry, will make a difference.

Maybe Quay Walker plays better in his second season.

The reality is, unless the Packers get significantly better against the run, it won’t matter how good their pass rush is.

Speaking of…

Pass-Rush Woes

On paper, the pass rush has some interesting names attached to it. None are bigger than Rashan Gary.

Preston Smith has been a solid player since coming to Green Bay. Perhaps this is coincidental, but his best seasons have come in odd-numbered years.

Kingsley Enagbare and Justin Hollins make for good role players. Lukas Van Ness was a player the Packers clearly targeted in moving from 15 to 13 when trading Aaron Rodgers to the Jets.

There are certainly reasons for optimism with that group.

That said, the team struggled immensely when Gary went down for the season with a torn ACL.

The team was in the bottom third of the NFL for pass rush productivity without Gary. At this stage, he’s its only individual game wrecker.

According to Pro Football Focus, Gary ranks second in pass-rushing productivity, which combines sacks, hits and hurries per pass-rushing snap, and fourth in pass-rush win rate over the last two seasons.

Gary may not be ready to start the season. Even if he is, it’ll likely take him awhile to find his footing and become the dominant force he was prior to the injury.

Safety Issues

The Packers need Darnell Savage to return to form. (Photo by USA Today Sports Images)

Adrian Amos was rock solid for his four seasons in Green Bay. The Packers got everything they could have hoped for and more out of their free agent investment with him.

It was clear that Amos lost a step last season, and the team chose to move on.

Instead of replacing him with a high draft choice, the Packers went the bargain route.

Jonathan Owens and Tavarius Moore were signed to compete for a spot. Rudy Ford was brought back after a season that saw him make a few splash plays. Innis Gaines was playing snaps by the end of the season. Anthony Johnson Jr. was the team’s lone selection at that position.

All of that to say, there is one giant question mark at the safety spot next to Darnell Savage.

Savage, for all his talent, is far from a sure thing at this stage of his career. He got benched last year before getting his job back.

The team seems to think playing him in a different role will get him back to the form that saw him looking like an ascending star following the 2020 season.

Savage hasn’t found that form since.

Despite his inconsistency, the team clearly believes in him. He’s going to get every opportunity to prove himself.

If he doesn’t, the team could be starting from scratch at safety going into 2024.

We Haven’t Seen It

This seems simple enough. With Aaron Rodgers, you could usually pencil the Packers in for at least 10 wins. That could increase by a couple depending how you felt about the rest of the roster.

That’s what MVP-level quarterback play brings. It’s why the Kansas City Chiefs are on the short list of Super Bowl contenders every year.

Maybe Jordan Love is the next great quarterback. Maybe he’s the next quarterback for NFL defenses to chew up and spit out.

Regardless of what anyone says, nobody knows what the Packers have in Love, and that includes the Packers themselves.

Any belief in Love from the outside is based on how that person felt about him prior to the draft. The same is true for those that don’t believe in Love. Ten dropbacks in Philadelphia, while impressive, is not a large enough sample to base anything on.

For 15 years, the Packers have known what they’ve had under center. Now, they don’t. Until we see evidence, there is fear in the unknown.

Green Bay Packers Training Camp Preview

Our Training Camp Countdown series rolls on with 17 days until the first practice of #Packers camp.https://t.co/YzQzGOprkH

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) July 9, 2023

Five reasons to believe in 2023

Jordan Love and the quarterbacks

Projected depth charts

Big question at kicker

Big question at cornerback

Big question at safety

Big question at inside linebacker

Big question at outside linebacker

Big question at defensive line

Big question at offensive line

Big question at tight end

Big question at receiver

Big question at running back

Big question at quarterback