33 Days Until Training Camp: Biggest Question at Running Back

Former second-round pick AJ Dillon has been good. He just hasn't been great and he certainly hasn't been Derrick Henry. A huge season awaits.

AJ Dillon (Wm. Glasheen/USA Today Sports)

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Given their size and college dominance, Tennessee Titans star Derrick Henry and AJ Dillon – then a second-round pick by the Green Bay Packers – made for an easy comparison.

“I don’t want to compare AJ to Derrick other than the fact they’re both big humans that run really fast,” coach Matt LaFleur said after the 2020 draft.

Through three seasons, there’s been no comparison. Henry is Henry, a bruiser and a home run threat who is coming off his third 1,500-yard season in four years. Dillon has been a bruiser and, well, little more.

Last season, according to SportRadar, 41 running backs hit the official league threshold of 6.25 carries per game. Dillon ranked:

- Second in stuff percentage (4.8 percent of his carries were held to 0 yards or less).

- Fifth in success rate (57.9 percent of his carries gained at least 4 yards on first down, at least half the remaining yards on second down and moved the chains on third down).

- Sixth in first-down percentage (25.3).

- Eighth in fumbles (one) and tied for first in fumbles lost (zero).

- 14th in third- and fourth-down success rate (57.1 percent conversion rate).

AJ Dillon (Wm. Glasheen/USA Today Sports)

However, Dillon also ranked:

- 23rd with 41.2 percent of his yards coming after contact.

- 28th with 4.14 yards per carry.

- 33rd in percentage of runs gaining 10-plus yards (8.03).

- 35th in broken-tackle percentage (4.83).

- According to Pro Football Focus, of 43 backs to be targeted 30 times in the passing game, Dillon ranked 42nd in drop percentage (five drops, 15.2 percent) and 22nd in YAC per reception (7.4) in 2022 after ranking 10th and ninth, respectively, in 2021.

Putting a bow on all the numbers, Dillon has been good. He’s been really good at times. He just hasn’t been Henry – or even close to it – for any sustained period of time. Last year, by the numbers, was a small step in the wrong direction.

“Last year, I kind of got caught up in trying to be perfect,” Dillon said during minicamp. “So, really, I think I’m a lot more calm and a lot more composed about it. And I realize that I don’t really control the situation – to an extent, at least. So, I’m just going to go play ball and I’m not putting any extra stress on it. I’m just going to try and enjoy every minute of it.”

It should be noted that Henry wasn’t anointed King Henry right away, either. It took him until Year 3 to inch past 1,000 yards before leading the league in rushing in Year 4.

Perhaps fewer shotgun runs with Jordan Love at quarterback will get Dillon moving downhill faster, allowing him to run through a few more arm tackles to get him into the open field. A solidified offensive line should give him more room to roam, as well.

Regardless, this will be a huge year for Dillon, who is entering his fourth and final season under contract. Given the shelf life of a running back, this might be his first and only chance to get a major payday. Given how he’s embraced the Green Bay community and nearby Door County, in particular, he’d love for that next contract to come from the Packers.

He’ll have to earn it.

“It’s hard sometimes for people to distinguish the difference between Green Bay and the Green Bay Packers,” Dillon said. “I have that relationship with Green Bay, regardless of the Packers.”

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