Dillon Listed Among Players at ‘Crossroads’

It's going to be a make-or-break season for Packers running back AJ Dillon. Here's why.

AJ Dillon (USA Today Sports Images)

GREEN BAY, Wis. – It’s a make-or-break season for one member of the Green Bay Packers.

No, it’s not necessarily Jordan Love.

In a story identifying 12 players facing a “make-or-break” season, NFL.com’s Nick Shook selected running back AJ Dillon, who is entering his fourth and final season of his rookie contract and will be playing for his next deal.

A second-round pick in 2020, Dillon had a strong second season. In 2021, he rushed 187 times for 803 yards (4.3 average) and seven touchdowns. More than that, he caught 34 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Of the 40 running backs targeted at least 35 times in the passing game, Dillon finished third in catch rate (91.9 percent), eighth in YAC per catch (9.2) and eighth in drop rate (2.9 percent; one drop).

In 2022, Dillon carried 186 times for 770 yards (4.1 average) and five touchdowns in 2022. While the rushing numbers were similar, he caught only 28-of-39 passes for 206 yards. Of 31 backs to be targeted at least 35 times, Dillon wound up 29th in catch rate (71.8 percent), 17th in YAC per catch (7.4) and last in drop rate (15.2 percent; five drops).

Better numbers on the field in 2023, obviously, will mean better numbers on his next contract.

“I don’t feel like I’m auditioning. I don’t feel like I’m trying to prove anything,” Dillon said recently. “I think that I’ve put enough out there on tape that I can, obviously, play at this level and play at a very high level.

“My focus is just going out there and putting the team in the best position to win and, whoever makes the decision on my future, hopefully they want me. And if they don’t, I’m going to do my thing wherever. That’s just the reality of this year for me and a bunch of guys in this locker room. It’s just my first time going through it.”

Three things jump to the forefront for Dillon.

- One, as detailed above, he must become a reliable receiving threat again. He might never be the textbook definition of a third-down back but he’s shown the all-around skill-set to factor in any situation.

- Two, he needs to be more explosive. Last year, out of 42 running backs with at least 100 carries, Dillon’s 10-yard run rate of 8.1 percent ranked 35th and his missed-tackle rate of 8.1 percent ranked 36th.

“I think the biggest thing for him is obviously running with that good pad level,” running backs coach Ben Sirmans said at the start of OTAs.

- Three, and perhaps most importantly, he needs to be more effective in short-yardage situations.

According to Stathead, on third- and fourth-down runs requiring 1 or 2 yards last season, Dillon converted 8-of-14. That’s a success rate of 57.1 percent. Of the 27 players with at least 14 attempts, only Leonard Fournette (12-of-23; 52.2 percent) had a lower conversion rate. Only Latavius Murray (1.29) averaged fewer yards per carry than Dillon (1.57) in short-yardage situations.

By contrast, Dillon’s tag-team partner, Aaron Jones, was 10-of-15 (66.7 percent) and averaged 5.27 yards per carry.

In 2021, when the Packers had the best short-yardage attack in the league, Dillon converted 12 of his 15 short-yardage runs (80.0 percent) and averaged 2.40 yards per carry.

As the Packers enter a season of tremendous change with Love replacing Aaron Rodgers, the ability of Dillon to consistently move the chains will mean a lot not only for the team but his next contract – no matter the team.

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