Free Agency 2020: Buyer Beware at Receiver

The Packers need a receiver or three; they'd be wise to ignore the free-agent marketplace.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Depending on the ratification of a new collective bargaining agreement, NFL free agency will begin on March 18 and the so-called legal-tampering period – when teams can officially begin negotiations with outside free agents – is March 16. With that, here is our preview of the top 10 free-agent receivers. (Age at the start of the new league-year is in parentheses.)

FIRST, THE PACKERS’ OUTLOOK

Green Bay has two receivers who will be free agents: Geronimo Allison and Ryan Grant. Neither will be anything close to a priority to re-sign.

As a restricted free agent last offseason, Allison and the Packers met in the middle between the original-round and second-round tenders with a one-year deal worth about $2.46 million. With a long-term contract on the line, Allison went bust. He caught 34-of-55 passes (61.9 percent) for just 287 yards (8.4 per catch). Of 79 receivers to be targeted 50 times, Allison ranked 78th with 0.68 yards per pass route and 78th in yards per catch, according to Pro Football Focus. He dropped five passes, fumbled twice and broke just one tackle. At least he blocked, which is why he ranked second on the unit with 638 snaps.

With Davante Adams injured, Green Bay added Grant on Oct. 16. After catching a total of 80 passes for Washington in 2017 and Indianapolis in 2018, he didn’t play a single snap.

Heading into the offseason, Green Bay has a massive need at receiver. Free agency is not the place to look.

OUR TOP 10

Amari Cooper, Dallas (25): During his final season-and-a-half with Oakland, Cooper caught 70 passes and scored eight touchdowns in 20 games for the Raiders in 2017 and 2018. Last year in his first full season with the Cowboys, he caught 79 passes for 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns. The Cowboys were rewarded with a 117.3 passer rating when targeting Cooper, according to Pro Football Focus. Of 109 receivers who were targeted at least 32 times, Cooper ranked 66th in drop percentage (8.1 percent; seven drops). According to PFF, he was third in the league with 15 deep receptions (passes 20-plus yards downfield) and second with a long-ball catch rate of 62.5 percent.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati (31): Green sat out all of last season with a foot injury sustained in training camp. The Bengals reportedly will use their franchise tag to keep Green, who will turn 32 on July 31. When healthy, Green is an elite receiver. In his nine seasons, he’s topped 1,000 yards on six occasions. The exceptions were 2016 (964 yards in 10 games), 2018 (694 yards in nine games) and 2019. For his career, Green has averaged 80.2 receiving yards per game – seventh-most in NFL history. In 2018, 109 receivers were targeted at least 32 times; Green finished 85th in drop percentage (9.8 percent; five drops).

Robby Anderson, N.Y. Jets (26): In four seasons, Anderson has caught 207 passes for 3,059 yards and 20 touchdowns. That includes 52 receptions for 779 yards and five scores in 2019. He was 19th with nine deep receptions. Of 109 receivers who were targeted at least 32 times, Anderson ranked 37th in drop percentage (5.5 percent; three drops). At 6-foot-3 and with 4.34 speed in the 40, few players in the league can match Anderson’s physical skill-set.

Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay (26): The 26th pick in 2015, Perriman has played for three teams. He missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury; in his four healthy seasons, he’s caught 95 passes for 1,561 yards and 11 touchdowns. Last year was a breakout of sorts. Taking advantage of Tampa Bay’s long-ball attack, he grabbed 36 passes for 645 yards and six touchdowns – all career highs. He was 10th with 11 deep receptions and his average reception was made 14.39 yards downfield, second-deepest in the league, according to league data. Of 109 receivers who were targeted at least 32 times, Perriman ranked 10th in drop percentage (2.7 percent; one drop). Before the 2015 draft, he ran his 40 in 4.35 seconds.

Emmanuel Sanders, San Francisco (33): At the trade deadline, the Broncos sent Sanders and a fifth-round pick to the 49ers for third- and fourth-round choices. In 10 games with the Niners, Sanders caught 36 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns; in 17 games, Sanders caught 66 passes. In 10 seasons, Sanders has 601 receptions for 7,893 yards and 42 scores. Of 109 receivers who were targeted at least 32 times, Sanders ranked seventh in drop percentage (1.5 percent; one drop). Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander owned their season matchups.

Randall Cobb, Dallas (29): After eight seasons with the Packers, Cobb caught 55 passes for 828 yards and three touchdowns for the Cowboys. Notably, he played in 15 games after playing in just nine in his final season in Green Bay. His yardage total was a dramatic increase over his 549-yard average over his previous three seasons, and his 15.1-yard average was the best in his career. He forced 10 missed 10 tackles after a combined 10 the previous two seasons, and he was 12th among receivers with 6.1 yards after the catch per catch. Never a great long-ball option for the Packers, he caught 6-of-10; that 60.0 percent catch rate ranked third among receivers with at least 10 deep targets, according to PFF. Also from PFF: Of 109 receivers who were targeted at least 32 times, Cobb ranked a woeful 104th in drop percentage (14.1 percent; nine drops). He’ll turn 30 a couple weeks before the start of the season.

Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia (26): The 20th pick in 2015, Agholor has caught 224 passes for 2,515 yards and 18 scores. After back-to-back seasons of 60-plus receptions for 700-plus yards, Agholor caught 39 balls for just 363 yards and three scores in 11 games in 2019. He caught 3-of-15 deep passes; that 20 percent catch rate ranking fifth-worst among receivers with at least 10 targets, according to PFF. Of 109 receivers who were targeted at least 32 times, he ranked 54th in drop percentage (7.1 percent; three drops).

Devin Funchess, Indianapolis (25): A second-round pick in 2015, Funchess signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Colts but suffered a broken collarbone in the opener and missed the rest of the season. In four seasons with Carolina, he caught 161 passes for 2,233 yards and 21 touchdowns. He was 96th with a 12.0 percent drop rate in 2018 (six drops).

Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee (25): In three healthy seasons with the Titans, Sharpe caught 92 passes for 1,167 yards and eight touchdowns. He caught a career-high 41 passes as a rookie in 2016, missed all of 2017 with a foot injury and caught 25 passes for 329 yards and four scores in 2019. He didn’t drop a single pass but was 102nd in the league with 2.4 yards after the catch per catch.

Rashard Higgins, Cleveland (25): “Hollywood” Higgins had career highs of 39 receptions for 572 yards and four touchdowns in 2018 but just four catches for 55 yards and one touchdown in 2019. His season was derailed by the addition of Odell Beckham and an early-season knee injury that sidelined him for four games. According to PFF, he dropped one of 10 targets; he was 65th with a 7.1 percent drop rate in 2018 (three drops). He has seven career touchdowns but 11 of his targets resulted in interceptions. For comparison, Cooper has 23 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions the past three seasons; Cobb has 40 touchdowns vs. nine interceptions the past seven seasons.

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