Final Countdown: Is Green Bay’s Defense a Disaster or Decent? Yes.

The Packers could allow 400 points for the sixth time in franchise history. Is that a damnation of Mike Pettine’s defense?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have been in existence for 102 seasons. This is their 99th season in the NFL.

Only five times have they allowed 400 points in a season. This could be the sixth.

The Packers enter Saturday night’s game against the Carolina Panthers having allowed 323 points. That total – already 10 points more than in all of 2019 – equates to 24.8 points per game. At that pace, Green Bay will end the season having yielded 398 points.

If you think that statistic is a damnation of Mike Pettine’s defense, you’re wrong.

What does having one of the worst defenses in franchise history mean in context of the 2020 season? Not a whole lot. Green Bay’s 24.8 points allowed per game is the 12th-most in team history but merely the 16th-most this season.

Imagine that. Being historically bad by one standard means being mediocre by another.

That’s because the game is changing at warp speed. How’s this for context: In 2017, Green Bay allowed 24.0 points per game. That ranked 26th in the NFL. So, this year’s defense is 0.8 points per game worse but 10 spots better in the rankings.

For added context: The 16th-ranked team in 2017 allowed 21.8 points per game. So, the 16th-ranked team this year is on pace to allow 48 more points than the 16th-ranked team in 2017.

“Yeah, it’s certainly been a transition,” Pettine said on Wednesday. “What you looked at as far as what you would accept as far as points and percentages and certain stats and yards, that certainly has changed.”

Pettine and his colleagues have faced a mountain of challenges this year.

One is the disappearance of homefield advantage as teams have largely played in empty stadium due to COVID-19. Pettine’s defense hasn’t had the vocal support of 78,000 fans. Playing in relative silence, quarterbacks have been able to communicate at the line of scrimmage, whether it’s changing the play or calling out the cadence, with ease.

“That’s a huge advantage for offenses. They get to play in essentially 16 home-type environments,” Pettine said.

Two is the relative disappearance of offensive holding. The five-year average for offensive holding penalties is 717. This year, the pace is 486. That’s a dip of one-third. What has that meant? For one, about 200 fewer first-and-20s than last year.

“It can be frustrating at times, knowing the offense has the upper hand,” Pettine said.

Those factors have increased the challenge for defenses, which barely are allowed to look at the quarterback the wrong way or deliver a jarring hit to a receiver without being penalized, fined or both.

“Whatever rules they have out there, we’ve got to do it,” safety Adrian Amos said. “Me complaining about it is not going to do anything. I think receivers coming across the middle are a little less timid, you can’t really take them out.”

Nobody is making excuses. Last season, Green Bay finished fourth with 19.6 points allowed per game. It ranked sixth in the red zone (50.0 percent touchdowns) and seventh in takeaways (25). Entering Saturday, it’s 28th in the red zone (67.5 percent touchdowns) and tied for 27th in takeaways (13). The personnel is largely the same, with Preston Smith, Kenny Clark and Kevin King, in particular, greatly underperforming compared to last season. Penalties and quiet stadiums might impact the numbers but they have nothing to do with the unit’s free-fall through the rankings.

Pettine acknowledged as much. There have been some positive signs of late but the progress seems excruciatingly slow. The run defense, aside from David Montgomery’s big run to start the Chicago game, has been tougher the last four weeks. Last week’s game at Detroit snapped a five-game streak of 40 percent or better on third down. That strong third-down play showed up on the scoreboard, with five games of 25 points or less the last six weeks.

“Hey, you play the hand that you’re dealt,” Pettine said. “Our task each week is to put together a plan that’s going to maximize our chances to win the football game. At times, we’ve executed well, we’ve done some really good things. Other times, we haven’t executed to our standards. But, fortunately for us, we’ve been opportunistic and we’ve made plays when we needed to make them or gotten off the field when we needed to make them or gotten a red-zone stop. That consistency is something, it’s an internal search for us. But, as Coach likes to say, our big thing is prepare (and) get ready to go 1-0 this week.”

Most Points Allowed Per Game in Packers History

1950: 33.83

1958: 31.83

1951: 31.25

1953: 28.17

1983: 27.44

1949: 27.42

2013: 26.75

1986: 26.13

1952: 26.00

1957: 25.92

2018: 25.00

2020: 24.85

2016: 24.25

2017: 24.00

Countdown to Kickoff

Aaron Rodgers' Long-Shot MVP Candidacy

Davante Adams and the Triple Crown

Four Keys to the Game

Four Views from Inside the Panthers

Three Reasons to Worry

Two X-Factors

Injury Report Favors Packers

Special Teams: Could Always Get Worse

Defense: Not as Bad as You Think