Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Buccaneers Today

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Buccaneers on Sunday, leading off with them winning the big quarterback matchup.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers face what amounts to a must-win game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. According to one model, the Packers would have only a 23 percent chance to make the playoffs if they lose.

Fortunately, there are plenty of reasons why the Packers will earn a key victory that will power their late-season push to the postseason. Here are three.

1. Baker Mayfield vs. Lambeau Field

OK, Mayfield won’t be facing 78,000 fans on Sunday, but Lambeau Field in December has been a frozen house of horrors for Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.

While with the Browns in 2021, he threw four interceptions to hand the Packers a 24-22 victory on Christmas. While with the Rams last year, he threw for just 111 yards as the Packers won 24-12 on Dec. 19.

With cloudy skies and a high of 41, the weather won’t be a factor. But Green Bay’s defense, ticked off after last week’s loss to the Giants, will be eager to make amends. And who better to do it against than Mayfield, who in Tampa Bay’s two-game winning streak has put up matching games of just 14-of-29 passing.

“I definitely think he has confidence in his arm,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said of Mayfield. “He could give us some chances, though, because he is really confident. And I think what gives him that confidence is the receivers he has. I mean, (Mike) Evans and (Chris) Godwin, I would throw it up there for them, too. Give them a chance to make a play on the ball. They’re two great receivers, so if I’m Baker, I’m throwing it up to them, trying to get them to make plays.”

2. Baker Mayfield Is Not Tommy DeVito

One more note on Mayfield: He’s not the most athletic of quarterbacks. That’s a big deal for the Packers, who couldn’t handle Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito on scrambles and designed runs in Monday’s loss.

The Packers have allowed 367 rushing yards to quarterbacks, second-most in the NFL. They struggled against Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder in the Week 2 loss and Russell Wilson had a key 21-yard scramble before halftime in a loss at Denver in Week 7. On Monday, DeVito earned NFC Player of the Week honors on the strength of his 71 rushing yards.

Packers vs. Buccaneers: Three Reasons to Worry

“It doesn’t matter if you’re playing against a quarterback that’s a statue back there or you’re playing against a guy that’s an elite athlete,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “Something that’s … talked about every single week (is) coordinating your rush lanes, because even an immobile quarterback, if you’re not coordinated and proper with your rush lanes, he might not be able to expose you for 25 yards, but he can step up in the pocket and run for 5 or 6.”

Talking run game in general, the Buccaneers are last in the league with 3.52 yards per carry. While Rachaad White has surpassed 1,100 scrimmage yards, he’s averaging only 3.71 yards per carry.

The Packers, of course, have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They’ve allowed 200 rushing yards in a league-worst four games and have given up at least 140 in each of their last five. But, outside of Saquon Barkley’s runs of 32 and 17 last week, his other 18 carries gained only 37 yards.

So, the opportunity is there for Green Bay to finally play some good run defense and force the mistake-prone Mayfield into making some plays.

“In terms of run efficiency when Saquon was back there, we did a good job,” LaFleur said. “The problem was, we gave up four just brutal runs that accounted for 109 yards where we had missed tackles, missed assignments, and you can’t have that.”

3. No Place Like Home

Jordan Love loves Lambeau Field. In his last three home games, he posted passer ratings of 115.5 vs. the Rams, 108.5 vs. the Chargers and 118.6 vs. the Chiefs with six touchdowns, zero interceptions and a completion rate of better than 70 percent. Not surprisingly, the Packers won all three games.

“Very poised. He understands the offense,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles told reporters. “He's great in play action. When the play breaks down, he can buy time to make a play. There's nothing panicking about the guy. I mean, he sat behind Aaron (Rodgers) for a couple of years. He's very poised in the pocket. I think he's a good football player.”

While the Bucs’ pass defense has been strong of late, they’ve allowed a 102.5 passer rating in road games. That’s fifth-worst in the league. One of their best players, cornerback Carlton Davis, is out. He’s had a pick in two of his last three games.

Love and the offense is coming off a rough performance against the Giants. So long as that’s a one-game blip on the radar rather than his home streak being a three-game blip on the radar, he could have a strong game against a defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed per attempt.

“It’s all about what we do this week, how we prepare throughout the week and, obviously, how we come out and play Sunday,” Love said. “I think it’s just another opportunity that we get to take and try to put our best foot forward on Sunday. Just learn from this last game; obviously, it wasn’t our best, wasn’t my best, but just things to learn from, move on and grow and build this week.”

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