Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Buccaneers Today

The Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will collide on Sunday at Lambeau Field. Mike Evans is among the reasons why the Packers could be in trouble.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There’s no reason why the Green Bay Packers shouldn’t beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

The Bucs are 27th in total defense and 23rd in total offense. While they’re 6-7, just like the Packers, they are 30th in strength of victory. Other than Minnesota in Week 1, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record.

But there is one big obstacle in the way of the Packers earning a big bounce-back win. And he leads off this week’s Three Reasons to Worry.

1. Mike Evans

Buccaneers star Mike Evans is going to be a “first-ballot Hall of Fame receiver,” Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry said this week. He’s right, though Evans is rarely mentioned among the league’s top receivers.

This is Evans’ 10th season. He’s gone over 1,000 receiving yards in all 10, a feat unmatched in NFL history to start a career. Randy Moss held the previous record with merely six seasons.

Evans:

- Is one of five players all-time with 10,000 receiving yards and 80 receiving touchdowns through nine seasons.

- Is second with 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons; the legendary Jerry Rice had 11.

- Is sixth with 91 receiving touchdowns in his first 10 seasons; Davante Adams scored his 92nd on Thursday.

- Is seventh with 11,446 receiving yards in his first 10 seasons.

Among active receivers, Evans is second (behind Adams) in touchdown receptions and third (behind Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins) in receiving yards.

“I got to see him up close and personal at the Pro Bowl a couple of years ago,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I love the way he competes. He is physical. He does a great job of opening up his stride. Obviously, his catch radius is insane. There’s not a catch he can’t make, not a route he can’t run. He will go down as one of the best to ever do it.”

Ah, yes. Catch radius. At 6-foot-4 3/4 and 231 pounds, he’s a physical mismatch of epic proportions. Evans has about 5 inches and 35 pounds on all of Green Bay’s corners.

“He is all of 6-5,” Barry said. “Special player. The most impressive thing to me is the number of different quarterbacks that he’s been successful with. Just a do-it-all receiver. Can do everything, can run intermediate routes, can obviously take the top off and hit the home run. Probably the trait that’s most impressive with him is the physicality that he plays with on every snap. Special player.”

The key, Barry said, will be to apply pressure on Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield. Green Bay’s pass rush, of course, disappeared into thin air in the loss to the Giants.

2. Situational Dominance

For the season, Green Bay is sixth on third down (43.4 percent conversions) and 21st in the red zone (51.1 percent touchdowns).

It is coming off an especially dismal game of 35.7 percent on third down (5-of-14) and 40.0 percent in the red zone (2-of-5). When the Packers are less than 40 percent on third down, they are 0-4. When they are less than 50 percent in the red zone, they are 1-4.

Defensively, the Bucs are 26th on third down (42.0 percent conversions) but fourth in the red zone (41.9 percent touchdowns).

Packers vs. Buccaneers: Three Reasons for Optimism

“They’re really good in the red zone,” LaFleur said. “It is a challenge for teams. They might get some yards on them, but when you get down in the red area, they’re making a lot of teams either turn the ball over or kick field goals. Usually if you kick enough field goals, you’re going to get beat.”

While the Bucs’ third-down defense is poor for the season, they have held their opponents to 40.0 percent or less in six consecutive games. During that span, they’re a third-ranked 30.7 percent.

“They’re a physical defense and their linebackers have really good range,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of Lavonte David and Devin White. “Their front, they set the edge, they are big and physical inside, and their DBs are really physical on the edge. So, it kind of caps everything in there and those linebackers can really cover ground to make plays.”

3. Blitzing Bowles

The Packers had done well against blitzing defenses but Jordan Love and Co. couldn’t beat the Giants on Monday. New York is second in blitz percentage. Tampa Bay is third.

Remember, Bowles got the better of Aaron Rodgers in 2020 (38-10, with Rodgers’ 45.7 percent one of the worst marks of his career), the 2020 NFC Championship Game (31-26, but the defense slammed the door after three Tom Brady interceptions) and 2022 (14-12 Packers win).

“We’ve played a lot of teams this year that like to bring pressure,” LaFleur said. “So, I think it’s helped prepare us. Now, every team’s going to have their own little flavor. I think Tampa does a great job with their blitz packages and they’ve got a lot of guys that they can send and they’ve got good players. So, it makes it a challenge in that regard.”

The Bucs, who have nine players with at least two sacks, will be shorthanded with cornerback Carlton Davis out and stud defensive tackle Vita Vea doubtful. However, for the Packers, big-play receiver Christian Watson is doubtful – his absence was a big issue against the Giants – and receiver Dontayvion Wicks and running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are questionable.

Can Love beat a defense that has allowed a meager 71.1 passer rating the last three games? Can they solve the riddle that is David, White and premier defensive back Antoine Winfield?

“He’s smooth,” said the Bucs’ defensive passing game coordinator, Larry Foote, of Love. “I heard a little chatter early in the year he wasn’t cutting the part, but lately he is lighting it up. He can sling it with the best of them. He can make every throw and you can see why he went No. 1. He’s looked like a vet. It’s going to a big-time challenge for us.”

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