Packers-Lions: Three Reasons for Optimism on Thanksgiving

For obvious reasons, the Packers are big underdogs for Thursday's game at the Lions. Here are three reasons why the Packers could spring the big upset.

DETROIT– The Green Bay Packers are 7.5-point underdogs for Thursday’s game at the Detroit Lions. There hasn’t been a larger spread in the series since 1992.

The reasons why the Packers will lose to the Lions are obvious. Here are three reasons why the Packers will return to Green Bay feeling thankful for a win.

1. It’s a Different Offense

The Packers were trounced by the Lions in Week 4. The game was over early, with the Lions leading 24-3 before the Packers got into positive territory in total yards. Under siege, Jordan Love threw two interceptions and was sacked five times.

This is a different offense, though, because it’s a different Love. Over the last three games, he’s ninth in the NFL in passer rating.

“I think it’s a little bit of everything,” Love said of the offense’s overall improvement. “It’s reps, being more locked in on the gameplan, the openers that we start with and just having that focus throughout the week, having great practices. Scout team’s been giving us a good look to get us ready for the game. It’s a little bit of everything.”

The expectation all along has been that there would be growing pains with a young quarterback throwing to receiver and tight end groups filled completely with young guys. Perhaps all that early pain has led to the desired growth.

“You grow and you learn,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think we’ve done a lot better job of putting ourselves in manageable situations, staying ahead of the sticks, not getting in those get-back-on-track situations.”

LaFleur then detoured into the crux of what went wrong in Week 4.

“I think just going back and watching our tape the first go-around vs. Detroit, I want to say we were in third-and-11-plus five or six times. When you’re in those situations vs. a really good defense, it’s hard to move the sticks and it’s hard to get into a flow of your offense. The more that we can keep it close and can function within our normal offense, the better rhythm you get. It’s what you practice all week.”

The Packers have gotten into better third-down positions and, as a byproduct, delivered better third-down results. (More on that later.)

With running back Aaron Jones and tight end Luke Musgrave out of action, replicating that success at Ford Field is going to be difficult. But Love is playing better. Quality quarterback play can overcome a lot of obstacles.

“They’re a good defense. They’re a solid defense. They do some good things,” Love said. “We’ve just got to start fast. We got ourselves in a hole the first time we played them where we were trying to crawl of that. Start fast, put up some points, handle them up front and making plays downfield.”

2. Detroit’s Cornerbacks

With the Packers so short-handed in the backfield, this figures to be a come-out-throwing-it game plan by LaFleur.

Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose at Lions on Thanksgiving

The Lions are an excellent all-around team but they are a bit vulnerable through the air, ranking 18th in opponent passer rating. According to Pro Football Focus and its best guess at coverage responsibilities, cornerback Jerry Jacobs has given up a 90.9 passer rating and been penalized eight times (third-most in the NFL), cornerback Cameron Sutton has allowed a 104.2 passer rating and been penalized four times and rookie slot Brian Branch has allowed a 113.2 passer rating and been penalized four times. That group was torched by Justin Herbert and the Chargers a couple weeks ago.

It won’t be easy for Love, especially with the juice Musgrave placed on injured reserve with a kidney injury. The Lions’ pass rush has some firepower. Ford Field provides an advantage. Jacobs, an undrafted rookie in 2021, had the two picks of Love in the first matchup.

But Love is playing better, Romeo Doubs has elevated his game and rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks look like rising players.

3. The Lions’ Big Weaknesses

Detroit doesn’t have many fatal flaws. However, its defense ranks 30th in the red zone (67.7 percent touchdowns) and 26th in goal-to-go (86.7 percent), and only six teams have fewer takeaways (12). Offensively, Green Bay has been terrible in the red zone but is the best in the league in goal-to-go situations.

The big matchup will be on third down. Defensively, the Lions are superb, ranking seventh at 35.3 percent. The Packers’ offense, coming full circle with this story, is No. 1 in the NFL with a 50.0 percent conversion rate the last three weeks.

What’s changed? Two things.

First is overall offensive efficiency. The last three weeks, the Packers’ average third down has required 6.4 yards, seventh-shortest. The first eight weeks, the average was 7.6 yards, which was fifth-longest. In Week 4, it was 10.5 yards.

Second is the growing chemistry between Love and his young pass-catchers.

“It’s been fun to watch these guys playing around each other more, being around each other, the communication that they have on the sidelines and at practice,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “You can just tell the guys are starting to get it. They’re just understanding things better and playing faster, and just making plays. Yeah, no, it’s been great just to see all that.”

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