What Could Packers Receive If They Trade Rodgers?

A top NFL executive – one who’s been part of some trades during his career – discusses the potential trade of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Feb 9, 2023 7:44 PM EST

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There are all sorts of reasons why the Green Bay Packers could trade Aaron Rodgers in the coming weeks. Each of those reasons could impact the assets the Packers get in return.

Rodgers …

- Will turn 40 in December.

- Has huge and increasing cap numbers for the Packers.

- Didn’t play to his standard in 2022 and the team suffered because of it.

- Has fallen short in signature moments.

- Has lost the unwavering support of many fans.

So, what could the Packers get in return if the iconic franchise and legendary quarterback decide a split is in their best interests?

“The messiness of all that you described probably doesn’t make it a simple answer, but I think there’s enough teams that are desperate enough that they would probably give up more than they should,” one high-ranking executive said. “I would say the best-case scenario is a 1 just because he’s so talented. He didn’t play great this year but there’s still flashes of brilliance.”

Las Vegas betting odds notwithstanding, the New York Jets seem like the most logical trade partner. The Jets have a top-tier roster, including the presumptive NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at receiver in Garrett Wilson to catch Rodgers’ passes. Their owner, Woody Johnson, and coach, Robert Saleh, have said they plan on acquiring a veteran quarterback. Saleh hired Nathaniel Hackett, who would provide a friendly face and familiar scheme for Rodgers.

What they don’t have is a competent quarterback, let alone a really good one. It’s going to require a really good quarterback to compete in the AFC, where the path to the Super Bowl goes through the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, Bengals’ Joe Burrow, Bills’ Josh Allen and even the Chargers’ Justin Herbert.

“If you assume he’s going to give you a chance to compete for a Super Bowl, a 1 is nothing,” the executive said of a first-round pick. “Anything outside of that probably becomes a little bit rich because of what you’re taking on. The team who’s trading for him is doing the Packers just as much of a favor as they are benefiting themselves from the trade. So, there’s that balance.

“There’s enough leverage in a vacuum that a team doesn’t have to give up a ton, but if Green Bay does a good job of creating a market and there’s competition, then you throw all that stuff out the window. I think it probably nets a 1.”

That competition, another executive said, could come from the Raiders, with receiver Davante Adams serving as the top recruiter, the Patriots, with 71-year-old coach Bill Belichick looking to win one more ring, the Tennessee Titans, who have faltered with Ryan Tannehill, and the Indianapolis Colts, who have acquired a veteran arm each of the last three offseasons.

The more teams in the pursuit, the better the compensation for the Packers. That’s simple supply and demand. On the other hand, Rodgers’ uncertain future could factor in the other direction. Some creative trade compensation could serve as a built-in hedge to Rodgers’ annual ponderings about his football future.

“Personally, I wouldn’t feel comfortable trading for him if I didn’t have some type of protection,” the executive said.

It’s something the first executive has considered. With the Jets picking 13th in this year’s draft, he thought a first-round pick in 2023 with an additional second-round pick in 2024 should Rodgers sign up for a second season with his new team would be fair compensation.

He didn’t think the Raiders would give up their first-round pick, No. 7 overall, but thought their second-round pick, an additional pick to make it the equivalent of a first-round pick plus a conditional first-rounder in 2024 could get it done.

(Based on this trade-value chart, the Raiders’ second- and third-round picks is the equivalent of the 25th overall pick.)

“You’ve got to do what you’ve got to do to get him but something where you’re not giving up picks for a 40-year-old quarterback that you don’t know will play,” he said.

A Rodgers trade would be a franchise-altering move, and not just for the Packers, who would be moving on from a sure-fire Hall of Famer and handing the reins to unproven Jordan Love. For the acquiring team, Rodgers could deliver a Super Bowl championship.

He also could deliver disappointment.

Those extremes actually could work in Green Bay’s favor. Who cares about giving up a first-round pick if you’re wearing a Super Bowl ring?

“It always comes down to if you need a quarterback,” one executive said. “Like the Jets, they need a quarterback. I don’t think they’d give up more than a 1 but it doesn’t matter for them, anyway, because they’d get fired [if the trade doesn’t work out], so they don’t care. And if they’re good, they’ve got their guy. They’re definitely in a win-now (mode). With a team like that, it’s not out of the question that they do something crazy.”