Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Lions

The Green Bay Packers (9-3) will battle the Detroit Lions (11-1) on Thursday night at Ford Field. Here are three reasons to believe the Packers will spring the upset and get back into the NFC North race.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs against the Detroit Lions linebacker on Nov. 3. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

DETROIT – It’s the biggest game of the season for the Green Bay Packers, who will look to avenge last month’s loss to the Detroit Lions on Thursday night at Ford Field.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will upset the Lions and close to within one game in the NFC North standings.

1. The Lions’ Injured Defense

The Lions have 18 players on injured reserve. Between that miles-long list and the injury report, five of their Week 1 starters on their defensive front seven – defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackles Levi Onwuzurike and Kyle Peko and linebackers Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes – will not play vs. Green Bay.

It goes deeper than that. Defensive tackle D.J. Reader, who started every game but Week 1, and defensive end Josh Paschal, who replaced Hutchinson, are out. Marcus Davenport, who was supposed to be the sidekick to Hutchinson, is on injured reserve.

Also on IR are linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez (six starts this year), defensive end John Cominsky (11 starts last year) and defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (four games of more than 25 snaps).

Of Detroit’s 30 sacks, 18.5 are out of the lineup. Of their 79 quarterback hits, 53 will be on the sideline. Of their 55 tackles for losses, 26 are out of commission. Even while missing six of 12 games, Hutchinson leads the team with 7.5 sacks, seven tackles for losses and 17 quarterback hits. Hutchinson, Onwuzurike (10) and Reader (eight) are the leaders in quarterback hits.

Former Packers star Za’Darius Smith has helped offset some of the production. In three games, he has two sacks and six quarterback hits.

“They move him around, and I think one of the biggest things that we saw even when Z was here, when he would get inside on the guards and centers and they’d create some matchup problems in there,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said.

“That’s the biggest thing in protection, we’ve just got to make sure we know where he’s at because he’s going to be moving around, and we’ve got to make sure we’re doing a good job blocking him, for sure.”

With so many injuries, there is a bit of an unknown factor in how Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will attack. Will he play conservatively to protect the secondary or will he play aggressively because of the lack of premier players?

“I think there’s only so many things you can do in terms of what they’ve shown on tape,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, “so you’d just better be able to pivot from an offensive perspective if they show you something different.”

2. Josh Jacobs

The Packers went 56 minutes before scoring a touchdown in their 24-14 loss to the Lions in November, but at least Josh Jacobs was effective. During the first half alone, he carried the ball 10 times for 89 yards, with seven carries of 5-plus yards.

Detroit’s defense is excellent, but the run defense has been at least a little vulnerable. The Lions are 15th with 4.37 yards allowed per carry. That’s not terrible, obviously, but a lot of that was built with a full-strength (or relatively full-strength) defense.

This defense will play without 1,060 snaps from its defensive tackles, 754 snaps from its defensive ends and 1,093 snaps from its linebackers.

The next-man-up mentality is a necessity, but the Lions will be playing backups of backups in hopes of stopping Jacobs and the NFL’s fifth-ranked running game.

Green Bay’s offensive line has been a strength all season. That group is a big reason why the Packers are third in the NFL with six games of 160-plus rushing yards and fourth with 53 yards of 10-plus yards.

“I think our guys have just really found a groove and have meshed playing together well across the board,” center Josh Myers said.

So has Jacobs, who isn’t just fourth in rushing but he’s seventh in yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus, and fifth in missed-tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

“Obviously, they’ve been rolling, they’ve been playing really good ball, so we feel like we’ve been playing good ball, too,” Jacobs said. “They’re at the top of the division and that’s what we’re hunting, so it’s going to be fun.”

3. Fast Starts

It’s cliché, to be sure, but a fast start – or at least weathering the early storm – is critical for a road team in a hostile environment.

That was the recipe for the Packers in last year’s win at Detroit. They started the game with back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives to take a 14-0 lead, and Jonathan Owens fumble-return touchdown made it 20-6 in the first quarter.

Have the Packers found that winning recipe again?

During their three-game winning streak, they have outscored their opponents 31-3 in the first quarter. Against the 49ers, they got the ball first and scored a touchdown, and led 10-0 after the first quarter. Against the Dolphins, they punted on their opening possession but scored back-to-back touchdowns to lead 14-0 after the first quarter.

The Packers have outscored opponents 81-27 in the first quarter. The Lions have been outscored 55-48 in the first quarter but destroyed opponents in the second and third quarters.

Meanwhile, the Packers are second in the league with 48 points on their first possession of the second half.

“That’s an important place to try to establish your offense early and, in an attempt to do that, also play with a lead, because then you’re not getting in third-and-long situations where Ford Field gets loud,” tight end Tucker Kraft said.

“It’s a place where the atmosphere thrives, their defense will play good behind that. We’d like to establish our offense as soon as we can (so) we don’t have to use silent cadence. Hopefully, we get some of their fans leaving early, like we did last Thanksgiving.”

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Will write the opposite side to this weekly package later, but here are three reasons why the #Packers will lose to the Lions tonight. ⬇️https://t.co/6XrekHSQUt

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 5, 2024

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