Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Lions

The Green Bay Packers (9-3) will battle the Detroit Lions (11-1) on Thursday night at Ford Field. Here are three major problems facing the Packers.

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 11 rushes for 65 yards and one touchdown against the Packers last month. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

DETROIT – Even with the Detroit Lions’ incredible injury problems, they are 3.5-point favorites for Thursday night’s showdown against the Green Bay Packers.

The Lions have won 10 in a row. Here are three reasons why they will sweep the season series against Green Bay for the second time in three years.

1. Powerhouse Running Game

This will be the big matchup. Powered by running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions’ running game has been unstoppable. They have rushed for at least 100 yards in every game, including at least 135 yards in nine of 12 games.

In fact, they were the first team in almost 50 years to have 100-plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in each of the first 11 games, a streak stopped by Chicago last week when the Lions rushed for 194 yards but zero touchdowns.

Green Bay’s run defense, which had been terrible throughout coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure, has shown some fangs under defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.

The Packers rank seventh with 4.2 yards allowed per carry. That includes 2.8 yards per carry against the 49ers and Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing in 2023, and the Dolphins and De’Von Achane, who led the NFL in yards per carry in 2023.

“I think it starts up front,” Hafley said. “Our D-line's doing such a good job of staying square, using their hands, getting off blocks. Guys aren't just running up the field. I think our linebackers have a better feel for where they're supposed to be within the scheme and with the D-linemen, and it's all starting to work together. I think we're setting edges way better.

“And then the play style, I think we're playing harder and harder each week, and that's how you play good defense. They're hard to block. And then we're tackling and we're running to the ball and there's multiple people to the ball.”

This will be a much bigger challenge because Detroit’s offensive line is a powerhouse. Center Frank Ragnow, right guard Kevin Zeitler and right tackle Penei Sewell are cream-of-the-crop players that allow Montgomery and Gibbs to do their thing. Just like with Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs, all they need is a sliver of space and some forward momentum to deliver chain-moving runs.

The powerful Montgomery and the explosive Gibbs are the first tandem in NFL history with back-to-back seasons of 10-plus rushing touchdowns. Of 39 running backs with at least 80 carries, Gibbs is eighth in missed-tackle percentage and Montgomery is ninth, according to Sports Info Solutions.

The Packers have missed the sixth-most tackles (88), according to SportRadar, but a total of only seven the last two weeks. They’ve allowed 3.11 yards after contact per carry, 11th-worst, according to Next Gen Stats.

“They’re two very dynamic backs,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “Montgomery, he’s going to beat you up physically. The other guy, you’ve got to try to corral because he can take it the distance. I think both those guys are capable backs.

“They’re running (behind), you could argue, one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in ball. And there’s weapons around them, so that opens up the running game. Jared (Goff is) playing at an MVP level, so they’ve got a really potent offense, very explosive. And those backs are two of the main pieces of that offense.”

2. Jared Goff And Elite Playmakers

The Lions’ injury problems are confined to their defense. With the exception of left tackle Taylor Decker, the offense will be at full strength.

Detroit features the precision passing of quarterback Jared Goff and the electric receiving skills of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

With the exception of the odd-ball game at Houston, Goff is having an MVP-style season. He is No. 2 with a 109.0 passer rating. Goff is first in yards per attempt and second in completion percentage. While he ranks 30th in air yards per attempt – a dink-and-dunk passer, for the most part – he’s second in yards per attempt on intermediate passes, according to Pro Football Focus.

St. Brown is fourth with 76 receptions, second with nine receiving touchdowns and first with 49 receiving first downs. In his fourth season, he has 391 career receptions, putting him on the threshold of becoming the third player in NFL history with 400 catches through four seasons.

Since the start of last season, he is first with 12 100-yard games and 124 first downs.

On the fast track of Ford Field, he has been almost unguardable because of his ability to create instant separation.

“He’s just a football player, man,” defensive passing-game coordinator Derrick Ansley said. “His measureables wouldn’t shock you. But he’s tough, he breaks tackles. He’s got a running-back body but he’s got receiver hands. So he’s going to be a challenge for us and we look forward to that challenge.”

Williams, who didn’t play in the first matchup against the Packers, has caught 34 passes for 630 yards and four touchdowns. His 18.5-yard average ranks second in the NFL. In 10 games, he’s had 75-plus receiving yards in five. Only Washington’s Terry McLaurin (five) has more 50-yard catches than Williams (four).

He’s got game-breaking speed for the long ball but also is No. 1 among receivers with 9.4 yards after the catch per catch.

Set up by that powerful running game, Goff’s play-action passer rating is 124.3 and is second with 11 touchdown passes.

Without Jaire Alexander in coverage, and with the possibility of their pass rush being stymied by Detroit’s offensive line, how can Green Bay’s secondary stop that prolific passing attack?

“You’ve seen that he’s a very efficient passer and he likes those short, little drop-off passes,” defensive end Lukas Van Ness said. “If we can try to get in his face and make pressure, we’ve seen him get off the mark and sometimes those passes can be a little inaccurate.”

3. Opportunistic Defense

The Lions have the winning formula on defense. They stop the run (fifth, 93.5 yards per game), dominate the critical situations – first on third down (31.7 percent conversions), second in the red zone (41.9 percent touchdowns) and third in goal-to-go (56.3 percent touchdowns) – and take away the football (sixth with 19 takeaways).

This, of course, is the big question: How much of that dominance will matter given all the injuries on that side of the ball?

“I know the elephant in the room is all the injuries that have happened with us on the defensive side,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said.

Where the Lions are healthy is their secondary. Veteran cornerback Carlton Davis will be back in the lineup after being inactive last week. Davis and rookie Terrion Arnold are the corners, Amik Robertson is in the slot, and big-play safeties Kerby Joseph (seven) and Brian Branch (four) have combined for 11 interceptions.

The Lions are No. 1 with an opponent passer rating of 74.9. Even in the last three games as injuries have piled up, they are No. 1 with a 74.4 rating.

“They compete, they challenge,” LaFleur said. “They play a ton of man coverage, and they’ve got good players, so I think they do a great job. They get a ton of man beaters. They do a great job with it, but I just think they make it hard on you. They contest everything, and if you make an errant throw, they’ll make you pay, because all those guys in the back end have great ball skills.”

The red zone will be critical; the Packers went 1-of-4 in their 24-14 loss to the Lions last month. Detroit allows less than 2 yards per play in the red zone and has yielded a 34.0 percent completion rate and a 57.5 passer rating – 14 points better than any other defense.

Jordan Love is ninth in red-zone completion percentage and 15th in red-zone passer rating.

“I think offensively, when you look at it, that’s another game where we struggled in the red zone,” Love said. “I feel like we were moving the ball pretty well and struggled to put up those points. And, obviously, it’s a good offense over there on the other side, so we struggled to keep matching those points.

“I think that’s an area that we’ve improved on. I think, obviously, the pick-six was a key changing point in that game. Having great ball security is an area we’ve improved on, as well, so that will be a big factor going into this game.”

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