Patriots Schedule Prediction: Playoff Run, or More Post-Tom Brady Futility?

With the New England Patriots' schedule formally formed, it's time to make the first (of likely many) forecasts for the 2023 season.

A sign of the 24/7/365 behemoth that the NFL has become, the league has even turned its schedule release into a de facto holiday.

While the scheduling formula has bestowed teams with a majority of what they have to deal with in the innumerable future, Thursday saw the league officially provide itineraries for this Fall and Winter. The New England Patriots, for example, know that they'll be dealing with a Super Bowl opponent come Sept. 10, as the Philadelphia Eagles visit Gillette Stadium in the opening week.

Making predictions for the football season before the Stanley Cup and Larry O'Brien Trophy have been earned is an exercise in relative futility. Doing so for a team whose entire structure could be shifted by sunrise ... i.e. the 2023 Patriots ... is equally dicey.

Predictions, however, never go out of style. So, without further ado, the first of what's sure to be many prognostications for the 2023 Patriots:

Week 1: vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The first two weeks of the Patriots' season will either be a delightful trip down memory lane or a reminder of what this franchise used to be. Year 4 of the post-Tom Brady era kicks off against a victim ... and resistor ... of his championship affairs. As constructed, the Patriots are an unpredictable group, but asking them to immediately clip the defending NFC champions, who seem well-equipped for another title run and then some, seems like a bit too much to ask for, no matter what they do for the rest of the offseason.

Eagles 37, Patriots 21 (0-1)

Week 2: vs. Miami Dolphins

Beating the Dolphins, now armed with the ball-hunting services of Jalen Ramsey, seems like a tall task for Mac Jones and his sketchy band of receivers. The Patriots have been forced to mostly make their own luck in the post-Brady era, but they have a golden opportunity with consecutive Foxboro endeavors to open the season. It feels unwise to believe that a Bill Belichick-led team wouldn't take advantage of such a gift.

Patriots 21, Dolphins 19 (1-1)

Week 3: at New York Jets

The Patriots aren't the national draw they used to be, but it's almost shocking that their first meeting with the Jets didn't close an exclusive window. After all, there are fewer narratives more satisfying to the neutral viewer than when the long-standing bully beats down their tormenters after countless scenes of abuse. The Jets have had 14 consecutive beatdowns at the hands of the Flying Elvises ... but they didn't have Aaron Rodgers for any of them. If the streak is finally going to end, this feels like the time and place to do it. Besides, the Patriots had enough trouble when Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and more were Packers last season. Now, with a little more to play for on a greener level, they'll be even more dangerous and explosive to deal with.

Jets 27, Patriots 13 (1-2)

Week 4: at Dallas Cowboys

After three weeks of taking things personally, the Patriots should benefit from a relative lack of historic stakes ... and the modern Cowboys' long-standing propensity for losing games they should win, especially at home. Dallas ended a six-game losing streak that began before Brady's arrival in their last get-together in 2021, but it'd be a nice chance for the Patriots' fledgling offense to make a statement.

Patriots 24, Cowboys 23 (2-2)

Week 5: vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been a bit of a big easy for the Patriots, who have won five of the past seven interconference meetings. It feels like a prime opportunity to keep some good interconference karma rolling, but the Saints are now operating with established big-play potential in Derek Carr and Chris Olave. A chance to .500 is denied. 

Saints 31, Patriots 20 (2-3)

Week 6: at Las Vegas Raiders

The return to the scene of one of the most egregious, comical crimes in Patriots will more or less serve as the gridiron equivalent of the Spider-Men pointing at each other meme. Headlined by head coach Josh McDaniels and former top receiver (and enactor of perhaps the most ill-fated lateral in NFL history) Jakobi Meyers, expect the former New Englanders to bestow some revenge in Sin City.

Raiders 28, Patriots 17 (2-4)

Week 7: vs. Buffalo Bills

Whereas the Jets have yet to solve the Patriots, another one of their former frequent victims, those from Western New York, have done so to the tune of four consecutive victories (including the one-sided Wild Card showdown in January 2021). While the Bills have fallen short of their championship goals, there's been little to suggest that the Patriots are capable of ending their newfound dominance in this divisional set.

Bills 27, Patriots 19 (2-5)

Week 8: at Miami Dolphins

It's good that the Celtics cooled down the Miami Heat in last year's NBA Playoffs, because the Patriots have a major problem to deal with in the form of the Dolphins. While facing them on Brady night is one thing, expect the Dolphins to take their revenge in South Beach.

Dolphins 26, Patriots 13 (2-6)

Week 9: vs. Washington Commanders

Set to face the group from the nation's capital for the first time under their new form identity, the Patriots should take advantage as often as they can with the Dan Snyder era ... or error ... set to end. Leave it to Belichick to fully take advantage of a prime opportunity.

Patriots 31, Commanders 21 (3-6)

Week 10: vs. Indianapolis Colts

Leave the Patriots' undefeated record overseas aside for a minute. As much as they've struggled on offense, they've managed to avoid the relative purgatory the Colts find themselves in. Indianapolis used a pricey draft pick on the uncertainty of Anthony Richardson at the most recent draft and is without a consistent big-play threat for him to throw to beyond Michael Pittman. Like the Galaxy before them, the Patriots are primed for a win ... or a "gewinnen," as the case may be ... in Frankfurt.

Patriots 28, Colts 13 (4-6)

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: at New York Giants

There's not as much on the line this time around, but the Giants will be far from an easy out again. New England has won the last two against Big Blue since their last Super Bowl clash. This time, though, the Giants are a team on the rise and were perhaps a Wild Card loss away from being in the same boat as the Patriots, questioning their passing future and entire offensive outlook. But they're clearly trending in the right direction, especially with so many coaches and managers who helped flipped the script on the Buffalo rivalry.

Giants 28, Patriots 17 (4-7)

Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots' pass rush, with Keion White and Marte Mapu joining the established likes of Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise, is going to keep them in a lot of games this season as the offense figures things out. Some units, however, are a bit too much to handle, and a Charger group looking to prove itself in high-profile games is one of them.

Chargers 41, Patriots 21 (4-8)

Week 14: at Pittsburgh Steelers

What was once a premier matchup in the AFC is now a battle of uncertain offenses. Who knows how much postseason panache this game will carry by the time the holidays arrive, but it's clear that the Steelers are more comfortable with sophomore Kenny Pickett at quarterback than the Patriots are with junior Mac Jones. The big winners here are CBS' video archivists, who have a combined 12 Super Bowls and the Steel City antics of JuJu Smith-Schuster to work with.

Steelers 30, Patriots 16 (4-9)

Week 15: vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Another Smith-Schuster reunion game, this one, again, feels dire, even if it's seven months away. What was a conference title meeting as little as five seasons ago is now a meeting of a budding dynasty and a rebuilding group. Despite his seemingly infinite prowess, there's little Belichick can do to stop it at this point in time.

Chiefs 35, Patriots 17 (4-10)

Week 16: at Denver Broncos

As it stands, this game appears to have two fates with little, if any room, for something in between. It'll either be Christmas coal between doomed groups or one team trying to mount a playoff push. For all their issues, the Patriots never sank to the offensive depths that the Broncos did, so it feels fair to give them a Rocky Mountain High.

Patriots 24, Broncos 20 (5-10)

Week 17: at Buffalo Bills

A proper New Year's resolution for the Patriots would be to find a way to re-establish their dominance over the Bills. Alas, this game takes place on New Year's Eve rather than Day. Maybe they'll catch a break if the Bills are resting starters ... even then, it feels like a far too spicy situation for the group to handle as constructed.

Bills 34, Patriots 20 (5-11)

Week 18: vs. New York Jets

Who knows if the Jets will be in the rare position of closing in on a playoff berth or playing out the stretch again ... but old habits, such as the Jets' final week futility and the Patriots' aforementioned lengthy winning streak, die hard.

Patriots 19, Jets 14 (6-11)

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Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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