Patriots' Belichick Era Poised to End As it Began?

If this is truly the end for Bill Belichick, he leaves the New England Patriots in a similar spot as he found them in 2000.

"Time is a flat circle ..."

The upcoming latest edition of "True Detective" will take place far from Foxborough, MA but Matthew McConaughey's haunting quote from the lauded original season rings true for its New England Patriots.

Until or unless Belichick dons a New England-branded visor and headset for Week 1 of the 2024 season, Sunday's 17-3 loss to the New York Jets will be viewed as the end of his near-quarter-century reign atop Foxborough's throne. Nearly every dubious mark reached over this four-win season will inevitably be compared to Belichick's debut year at the start of the century. 

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That 5-11 slog in 2000 perhaps came at a more pure time on the professional football timeline ... the definition of a catch was certainly more agreeable back then, for example. Much has changed since the ensuing two decades-plus have played out, but Belichick's potential ending strongly resembles its beginning.

To be fair to Belichick (even if his competitive nature would probably never allow him to accept or acknowledge any form of judgment that'd hint at any form of a skewed perspective in his favor), New England's defense is in a relatively decent spot, combining established talents with potential-packed projects that should provide any potential new headset wearer a strong foundation. 

Certain offensive woes, however, look dangerously familiar ...

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QB or Not QB?

The Patriots have a major decision to make in the franchise quarterback department: Mac Jones has gone from potential heir to Tom Brady's title to emergency third quarterback at an alarming rate and there's no reason to believe that the Patriots will be patient. 

Back then, the questions concerned the fate of Drew Bledsoe, who was perhaps enduring the aftershocks of the toils that emerge when one throws over 600 passes a year before that became commonplace. Bledsoe took care of the ball (throwing a then-career-low 13 interceptions despite the struggles in 2000) but also suffered 45 sacks. The Patriots chose to invest in Bledsoe's talents and bestowed a then-record $103 million contract to their top pick from 1993, leaving relatively little room for drastic changes beyond quarterback.

Of course, a certain second-year man came in and made those around him better while others (i.e. 2001's second-round pick Matt Light) likewise made names for themselves as self-made men. It'd be foolish, however, to expect lightning to strike twice in Foxborough.

There's no reason to believe that Jones, an affordable cap casualty upon release (just under $5 million in dead money, but saving over $2.7 million with a trade), will be invited back to compete for the Patriots' top passing spot, but there's an intriguing similarity to the Bledsoe conundrum in the way the Krafts and Co. replace him. Will they once again go the all-or-nothing route ... i.e. breaking the draft bank and using the third pick in the upcoming draft on a passing prospect ... or do they perhaps make a few lighter, if not vital, investments at multiple points of need while perhaps making a sacrifice or two under center for the next year-plus?

Lack of Playboys

This issue was bad enough back at the turn of the century: the sufficiently talented local legends Terry Glenn and Troy Brown were responsible for over 57 percent of Bledsoe's yardage but next in line was Tony Simmons at 231 yards (behind rusher Kevin Faulk at 465). The situation has become far more dire this time around. As nice as it was to see Kendrick Bourne earn a bit of a breakout (13 yards away from being the Patriots' second-leading receiver), it becomes a bit less inspiring when one recalls that his last snaps came before Halloween.

It was challenging enough to survive as a defense-first group in 2000, as the Baltimore Ravens' journey to a Vince Lombardi Trophy hoist was anything but smooth sailing. New England is faced with a similar conundrum this time around: there's certainly hope and potential with top grabber Demario Douglas but the Patriots need to address the playmaking issue sooner rather than later. 

Any move New England makes should be done with the impression that another Tom Brady isn't going to break out of the woodwork, a Tom Brady that made modest additions for the 2001 season (i.e. David Patten) into formidable weapons worthy of a championship run. The loss of Rhamdonre Stevenson shouldn't have triggered an offensive downfall that wouldn't have been out of place on, say, Big Ten turf.

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The Similarities Between Now and Then Are ... Uncomfortable

What's this all to say? Maybe don't expect the Patriots to duplicate what happened the last time a Belichick-led group won less than six games.

Hindsight is 20/20 and the Patriots have a crystal-clear view of their rearview mirror. Whether Belichick is let go on Monday or beyond, there probably is little, if any, chance of him "going out on a high note." That ship has long sailed and it's part of the implications New England should've considered when opting to keep the Belichick era rolling once it became clear that Brady had thoughts of playing his final downs beyond Foxborough. 

Perhaps such an ending was always inevitable: the enduring New England dynasty was a once-in-a-lifetime fable, where the dangerous aftermath was always down the road and well worth the guaranteed headaches poised to be posted if and when the league finally caught onto their schemes. Like the mere question of firing Belichick, it's part of a difficult, arduous process, one where there's little, if any, instant relief due. 

The filling of the sandwich Belichick stacked over 24 years in New England was the finest delicacy the NFL had to offer. It's bread, however, has left a distinctively sour taste in Foxborough.

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